The world economy "and warm, enthusiastic" risk is difficult to measure

With the world's major economies of the relevant economic indicators appear better world economy further clear signs of recovery. In relative abundance of liquidity and a variety of good news, the global stock market was rising, crude oil and other commodity prices has bounced back.

Dominated by the optimistic expectations, some economists are keen to discuss global economic will render whatever shape recovery. However, the world's major economies, high unemployment, consumer demand weakness, inflation risks aggravating circumstances, the world economic recovery success remains undoubtedly face challenges.

At the beginning of the ice

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July this year the World Economic Outlook report, said that the world economy is beginning to come out since the second world war the most serious recession this year, the world economy will shrink 1.4% next year will increase 2.5%, better than previously expected.

From the world's major developed economies of the relevant data seems to be confirmed this judgment.

United States Department of Commerce announced the end of July, the second quarter of this year, the United States economy annualised fall 1%, better than expected. In addition, in the second quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year, the United States economic growth revised 1.5%, negative 2.7%, negative 5.4% and negative 6.4%. Many economists expect the third quarter of this year, the United States economy appears positive growth.

Japan's Cabinet Office 17 published preliminary statistics, netting factors, in the second quarter of this year, Japan's economic growth over the previous quarter 0.9% annualised growth 3.7 percent, to five quarters for the first time since the rendering of the positive growth. The latest data confirms the Government of Japan for the month of June has been made in Japan economy bottomed judgement.

Eurostat published on February 13, the second quarter of this year, 16 countries in the euro area economic downturn than the only central 0.1%, far better than the first quarter of this year than decline 2.5% ring. Of these, the EU's largest economy, Germany this year for the second quarter economic cycles than growth 0.3%, for last year compared with the first ring. In addition, this year's second quarter, United Kingdom-economic cycles than drop just 0.8%, significantly lower than in the first quarter of this year's 2.4%.

Risk is difficult to measure

Nevertheless, some analysts have pointed out that, since the global recession has not been concluded, the consumer remained sluggish, the financial system needs to be repaired; therefore, the world economy will experience slow and difficult process.

As a source of this financial crisis, the United States economy facing layer. Currently, the United States the main driver of economic growth in private consumption remained sluggish. In July this year, the unemployment rate in the United States, the forfeit 9.4 Housing foreclosure cases new high volume, high fiscal deficits, these factors have increased the United States economic recovery of uncertainty.

Japan and the eurozone economy also face high levels of unemployment, consumer downturn. In addition, some analysts believe that the recent Japan export improvement thanks to a foreign Government's economic stimulus measures, hence the lack of sustainability; the euro area remains a serious credit crunch, euro area countries government liabilities is relatively high, increasing the difficulty of coping with the crisis.

From a global perspective, the current number of national economy in many levels render coexistence of warm and cold. Specifically, economic indicators of improvement in employment and consumer downturn coexist; some financial institutions making and Bank "toxic assets" issue and coexistence of the credit crunch; the stock market, property prices, commodity prices and real enterprise performance is poor coexist; aggressive fiscal and monetary policy and the coexistence of consumer downturn; liquidity flooding, dollar risk and commodity price increases inflationary threats and total demand of deflationary pressure.

Analysts pointed out that, if only from the recent major economies of the relevant economic indicators, analysis, 2010 the global economy is expected to step into the "V" or "U"-shaped rebound, but if countries could not be launched around the risk prevention and effective strategies, the global economy also has a "W" type double bottom recession risks.