Samuelson three major problems pose a threat to world economic recovery.

<P> Greece May 20 the two unions launched the strike again, this is the fourth year the Greek nationwide strike. .Continue to protest against the government raise taxes, cut wages and pensions policy of austerity. .Greece's crisis is not over. .</ P> <P> the Greek people to question the situation "the worst is over" optimistic interpretation of this economic crisis to be developed into a huge debt burden of the government dominated by the new stage. .Three deep-rooted problems remain: the welfare state and the burden of an aging population, huge private debt burden and a huge global trade imbalances. .Each issue may resurface the world back into protracted recession. .</ P> <P> Not long ago, "Newsweek" columnist Robert Samuelson published an article entitled "2010 Great Depression? .--- Wake of the 20th century Greek crisis began 20 years of terrible memories, "the article pointed out that" over? Bad situation raises questions about the Greek optimistic interpretation of this. "It means too early to celebrate the economic crisis into .a new stage: a huge government debt is the burden of developed countries dominated the stage. .30s of last century, the Depression, and now we may happen because the world economic system and is not far-reaching changes in the proper understanding of what to do. .</ P> <P> Robert Samuelson believes that social, deep-rooted economic problems remain. .Particularly three issues: first, the welfare state and the burden of an aging population; followed by the huge burden of private debt (the United States and other countries of the mortgage and consumer loans); Finally, the huge global trade imbalances (in some countries - - China in particular .- - has a huge surplus, other countries, particularly the United States --- --- holds a huge deficit) for each question are likely to resurface the world back into protracted recession. .</ P> <P> order to cope with huge budget deficits, developed countries will cut spending or increase taxes. .These measures would undermine the economic recovery. .The question is, do not take these measures may lead to financial crisis, leading to the same consequences. .Rising debt is terrified of the lenders charge higher interest rates will persist. .Lower rates of government bonds issued earlier value will fall. .A large number of different countries around the world with the bank debt will suffer huge losses. .Other investors and financial institutions as well. .Financial system may be stuck again. .</ P> <P> Greece's plight is not unique result, but of degree. .In 2009, Greece's deficit is almost the size of its economy that is 14% of the gross domestic product, the total debt is 115% of GDP. .At the same time, Italy's deficit and debt are the GDP of 5% and 116%, Spain 11% and 53%, Germany 3% and 73%. .U.S. deficit (calculated slightly different) and debt were 9.9% of GDP and 53%. .Accounted for about half of the world's total economic output in most developed countries are in the same predicament. .On the surface, to avoid these problems seem very simple. .China, India, Brazil and other emerging market countries will become the world's growth engine. .Their advanced products from the developed world will increase their yearning for the standard of living, while maintaining production and employment in developed countries. .This may be happening. .International Monetary Fund's latest forecast poor countries (ie emerging and developing economies) in 2010 and 2011 the economy will grow 6.5% over the same period the growth rate of all developed countries 2.4%. .The trouble is, it needs China and other Asian countries to permanently abandon the export-led growth. .Is not clear whether they are able or willing to do so. .</ P> <P> facing every country policies, practices and habits change, these policies, practices and habits are deeply integrated into its social, political and economic structures. .Developed countries can gradually control the welfare system? .Asia's export economy indomitable will turn to domestic demand-led growth? .Americans will spend less to save money a little bit more, and the Chinese people the opposite? .Just after the First World War, recovery familiar, comfortable and understanding what may be harmful. .University of California, Berkeley Barry Eichengreen and Peter Temin Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the two economic historians, people in the 20th century, 20 years can not see and adapt to fundamental changes in the Great Depression led to the war --- .hate to make this process more difficult. .</ P> <P> think we have to avoid a second Great Depression, a more specific argument based on the idea that the Great Depression can be avoided, and the progress of economic knowledge so that we can do this. .If we had know the future, governments can avoid the tragedy. .Despite some opposition, economists of the 20th century 30's what went wrong in the end there is broad consensus. .Various government central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) is too negative. .They do not stop the bank panic. .Critical moment of the intervention could have changed history. .Rising unemployment and falling prices encourage each other. .Debtor is not a loan, resulting in more bank failures, credit crunch and loss of savings. .But this time these errors are not repeated. .Despite the criticism, but the banks have a "relief." .Funds are injected into the credit markets to prevent a vicious cycle. .</ P> <P> In this way, the world's fight to address the root problem of the time. .With the economic recovery to strengthen and extend the challenge (Asia) instability of export-led growth or (developed countries) welfare spending is not sustainable political strategy will become easier. .It will be more optimistic about the future, they for the necessary --- --- if not the popular attitude adjustment will be more open. .This situation may appear. .May be able to muddle over the world to make gradual changes rather messy, and ultimately to resolve another major crisis. .</ P> <P> the Great Depression, but there is another more sober interpretation. .That is, the pain, can not imagine the change was only in the extreme to be taken under the pressure of the crisis. .A central bank is very negative because they Sishou Zhao gold standard: in order to save the bank to put too loose credit policy may result in the loss of gold, people will be asked to replace paper money with gold. .Just can not seem to sustain the future, many countries give up the gold. .Similarly, a post-war until the repayment of a debt problem can not only be "resolved." .As the UK's position as a global leader, the U.S. is winning in World War II until the position. .</ P> <P> In this context, the problem is not resolved today --- the global economy of the welfare state and the problem of leadership --- become more ominous. .They make people feel that in a crisis by forcing major adjustments will not take before. .Current economic conditions to reflect this dramatic possibility. .Economic recovery will not encourage the conscious change? .Of course, save the economic stakes, because the economic suffering of the Great Depression have so many national political becomes worse and led to World War II. .</ P>.