Wait for the United States itself is no guarantee that the appreciation of the yen.

<P> Way steadily increased, the yen's strength has come to let the Japanese government can not continue to remain silent in the situation. .Yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister Ye Tian Jiayan a "volatility of the yen can not be tolerated, will be closely watching the yen exchange rate", the verbal intervention, a direct result of the day of the Asian currencies the yen fell against other major currencies crashed, the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate from .Friday's nearly 8-month low of 85.60 a slight rebound to the top. .</ P> <P> 8 10 May, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve has held the same day monetary policy meeting, the market is waiting for the central bank rhetoric and initiatives between the two countries. .However, experts generally believe that economic recovery in the U.S. case the situation can hardly be optimistic about the short term, the situation of a strong yen to continue to die hard. .</ P> <P> the U.S. economic downturn will continue to push up the yen </ P> <P> Yesterday, the Brookings Institute analysis shows that if the U.S. economy by creating 208,000 jobs per month to calculate the positions .U.S. job market still need 11.5 years to recover to the level before the recession; even if the U.S. economy created 321,000 jobs per month posts, the job market still needs 5 years to recover to pre-recession levels. .Regardless of how the scientific nature of this report, the unemployment rate that most affects U.S. national nerve data, can be said that the current U.S. economic recovery, the largest piece of "clouds." .</ P> <P> same time, another relevant to the real estate market, U.S. economic recovery is also a dark cloud. .On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department admitted that the Government had received mortgage aid plan to help homeowners in trouble, but once again the number to be more than previously estimated. .It had reminiscent of a few days before the outspoken former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan - a slight recovery in the U.S. economy, but into a suspended state; if the real estate market deteriorate, the U.S. economy may once again decline. .</ P> <P> the face of successive poor economic data overshadowed the market pessimism is growing strong. .On Friday, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2011 growth forecasts the U.S. economy and the Fed will take a new round of unconventional monetary easing policy. .However, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University Sun Lijian is that the Fed will not be easy to restart the unconventional monetary easing policy, "Once the Fed restart the quantitative easing monetary policy, will lead to market panic has been fixed in the balance sheet is also .will once again be 'torn', and the results will be significantly better than earlier when the rescue. " .</ P> <P> Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Research Center, deputy director of the Pan Zhengyan Financial also said: "The tone of the Fed's monetary policy meeting will not change too much, is expected to maintain the previous argument, and continue the current monetary policy." .However, the Sun Lijian and Pan Zhengyan believe that the Fed and the U.S. slowdown in economic recovery and increased risk of speech, will keep the dollar further pressure in the short term is hard to change the momentum of a strong yen. .</ P> <P> Bank of Japan intervention can not do anything </ P> <P> 84.82, the U.S. dollar against the yen since the 15-year low of whether or not to be broken? .Many market analysts believe that this is only a matter of time. .The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting statement appears in turn what kind of attitude? .Currently, some Japanese banks have analysts and traders expect the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting in the statement, that the further implementation of the yen may depress the liberal policy. .More analysts that the Japanese government also may be the first time since 2004, direct selling in the foreign exchange market, the yen, to intervene in the yen exchange rate. .</ P> <P> However, Royal Bank of Scotland said it expects the Bank of Japan August 10 monetary policy statement does not show concern for the excessive appreciation of the yen. ."Indeed, the Bank of Japan may be following the verbal intervention after wild Tianjia Yan, but the central bank could use very limited means." Panzheng Yan said, "and that this intervention may have a few days to play some of the yen exchange rate .suppressed, but can not reverse the strong yen's situation, especially the first half of the export situation in Japan is excellent, the case of a substantial increase in the trade surplus. "</ P> <P> Sun Lijian the view that Japan's export situation is very good indeed to some extent .has boosted the yen, the yen rose in recent fundamental factor is the influx of money market interest rates set back. .His analysis: "The bad economic situation in the United States, and the development of emerging market economies is also good, and the recent improvement in the European market under economic data, the dollar's safe haven function weakened, investors coming back to Japan, leading to the yen rose .. "</ P> <P> As for whether the Bank of Japan intervention, Sun Lijian bluntly:" yen carry the world's major currencies, the U.S. economy deteriorated, the Bank of Japan has no effective means of intervention in the yen exchange rate .. if the U.S. economy improves, the natural depreciation of the yen, so the Japanese could only wait for the U.S. and global economy improves. Bank of Japan only in the last century to the mid-80s early 90s, the joint Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks in the case of ., fishes have been effective intervention in currency markets. And its 'one-man operations' success has never been a precedent, so the Bank of Japan in recent years, there has never been direct intervention in currency markets move. Moreover, the current in the United States and Europe unable to defend oneself and to seek .the case of increasing exports, the central bank can not reproduce this several joint 'combat' situation. "</ P>.