The second half of the global economy into the "slow lane".

<P> Into the second half of the global economy remains clouded, the recent economic data released by a number of countries are different, the market once again the sustainability of global economic recovery to worry. ."Double dip" into the south of France Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum held in hot topic. .At the meeting, most economists believe that despite the "double dip coming" a bit pessimistic, but the global economy or will enter a "slow lane" is not an alarmist. .</ P> <P> European and American economy, "五十步笑百步" </ P> <P> in the first half, to prevent the spread of the debt crisis in Europe, Germany requires a heavier debt burden of euro area countries, fiscal austerity measures. .Helenians short hand, whether willingly, Greece, Spain and other countries, or compromise. .But this led to a lot of people worry about: Germany insist that the implementation of tight fiscal policies, will lead to a vicious cycle of deflation, and may eventually threaten the entire European economy. .</ P> <P> known as "Dr. Doom," said Roubini, professor at the University of New York 4, said publicly that, although I believe the euro zone economy will not fall into a double-dip recession, but the shock of the past few months based on the estimated year .growth near the "zero", lower than his earlier forecast of a 1% increase. .</ P> <P> Ironically, despite the euro area has been repeatedly exaggerating the crisis, but the situation is not so bad: Economic data were mixed, the financing needs of European banks has been exaggerated, Spain, the euro bond sale exceeded the contrary, the U.S. economy .optimism swept away, the euro quickly rebounded to levels above 1.25. .</ P> <P> series of U.S. economic data released last week all the bad, regardless of the manufacturing sector, employment, spending and home sales are all down, the only improvement in the unemployment rate, but does not cover Xia Yu, and the unemployment rate .remained at high levels. .This makes the second half of the global economic doom and gloom, the U.S. interest rates not only have no hope, they may have to re-launch the quantitative easing policy, "double dip" risk increasing. .</ P> <P> Although rapid recovery in emerging markets, but the main Xigeluosi Pacific Investment Management Company, said emerging market countries, developed countries can not rely on global economic growth will be back to pre-crisis levels. .</ P> <P> "will continue to fragile financial markets, global imbalances will continue. Lack of confidence in the market, if not solve the problem of global imbalances, the future will be a crisis." HSBC Holdings Group Chairman Stephen Green said. .</ P> <P> Royal Bank of Scotland currency analyst Gregg Gibbs that, due to lack of market confidence, the economic might in the future for a long time in a "slow growth of employment, interest rates low level" .such a case. .</ P> <P> fear of the world economy into a Japanese-style slow growth </ P> <P> the world economy is a "double dip" of the possibilities? .European and American economists in 4 of the Economic Forum held different views, it is difficult to form a consensus. .</ P> <P> European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet ruled out the world economy "double dip" of the possibilities. .He said: "Obviously, the economic recovery are both emerging economies or developed economies." He also said that in order to maintain the sustainability of economic recovery in developed economies still need to take measures to restore homes, businesses ., the confidence of investors and depositors, and to restore confidence through good financial management still needs to achieve. .</ P> <P> prospects of the French and international experts Aniesibei Tennessee Information Center - Carlyle also believes that leaders have the ability to promote economic recovery. .</ P> <P> France, Chairman of the Committee for Economic, economist Jacques Atari took the opposite view. .He believes that the world economy is still "double dip" risk, such as the policy is not changed, the risk may be transformed into reality. .Atari also believe that the global economy is facing the risk of deflation, but the correct handling of the banking system through the deep-seated problems and to reduce public debt to avoid this risk. .</ P> <P> University of California, Berkeley, Laura Tyson, Professor of Economics that the global economy is still facing difficulties. .After the crisis, much-needed funds to support the private sector, but the implementation of the austerity policy in Europe could lead to the private sector can not get enough support. .</ P> <P> She said countries should continue to implement economic stimulus policies. .In the United States, household consumption demand and attract private sector investment in alternative economic stimulus is not enough to become the main driver of economic growth. .She believes that the United States, Europe and Japan in the world economy is still a large proportion, if within three years of slow economic growth, which affect the world economy is still very evident. .</ P> <P> Reinsurance Group economist Philip Terre National worry about the world economy into a Japanese-style long-term slow growth. .He said the Japanese-style stagflation will affect corporate earnings outlook, and hit investor confidence. .</ P> <P> scholars "European largest lender," recommends </ P> <P> "the European economy into stagflation it?" "No!" For the current "debt crisis in Europe" the world's most intractable problems .European political, business, academia representatives to make such responses, but only if European economic reforms must be implemented. .</ P> <P> French economist Christian 德布瓦西厄 that "if the existing policy remains unchanged, in the next 10 years that European growth will remain at 1.3% to 1.5% level, .take years to unemployment fell to pre-crisis level. " .</ P> <P> former French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine believes that to achieve new growth, the first step should reduce the fiscal deficit in Europe, the European economy needs to achieve healthy growth through a tightening of before. .</ P> <P> Jacques Atari also recommends that the EU set up a debt management agency, the agency's financing capacity should reach the EU 10% of gross domestic product. .</ P> <P> to ensure that the government tightening policies, the European economy can still get continued investment promotion, the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Group Chief Executive Officer 路易加卢瓦 proposed a "big European credit" proposal .to promote innovative, green technologies and continued investment in education and other sectors. .</ P>.