Early this year, when most people in the world economy so fast and powerful way out of recession were screaming, renowned economists, Morgan Stanley Asia President Stephen · Roche boldly predicted that the global economy into second on bottom of probability there is 40%.
"Today I still insist on this point. "This month, just added Yale University Professor title of Roche for sure on the Shanghai Securities News reporter said. Support the Roche views the reason is simple: after the bubble burst, the aftershocks may well lead to the recovery of the developed economies are very weak, and thus to China, and other export oriented developing economies have strong growth "against the wind".
Roche's views may not be so "typical", but to a large extent represents the current global investors a potential concern. In the era of economies after the crisis facing the "go to the test and the Government of" Europe and sovereign debt risk outstanding background, the world economy at the end of last year, this year the show good recovery of sustainability has been on a big question mark, and such a doubt, the deepening in the second half of May. In the face of the external environment is brewing in Europe, this is quite a number of internal problems of the Chinese economy and how to deal with?
Overall recovery trend continues
If you just observe several large international authoritative report, this year, and even the 2011 world economy still is expected to remain in the post-crisis recovery situation, regardless of the IMF, World Bank, OECD, United Nations, are posted on the global economy are more optimistic growth projections data.
At the end of April to the latest release of a World Economic Outlook report, IMF three months for the second increases its world economic growth is expected this year, from January of this year is expected to increase to 3.9 4.2% next year's growth is expected to be retained at 4.3%. IMF pointed out that the global recovery progress in better than expected, but the speed of recovery, the recovery of the weak compared to the developed economies, the majority of emerging and developing economies, the pace of recovery in the solid.
According to the IMF's latest forecast that this year the developed economies will grow 2.3% forecast before 0.2 percentage. Among them, the United States economy is expected to grow 3.1%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of growth 2.7%; euro area is relatively poor, the region's economic growth is expected this year, and the former 1.0% once predicted an unbiased, next year's expected to be reduced 0.1 percentage points, to 1.5%. By contrast, the emerging market and developing economies in this year's economic growth is expected to be $ 6.3%, compared to previous forecast 0.3 percentage, next year's growth projections are by 0.2 percentage, to 6.5%.
The World Bank in early last month released the updated version of the 2010 global economic Outlook, the same increase in the next two years, global economic growth is expected. The Bank expects that in 2010 and 2011 world economic growth will reach 2.9% and 3.3%, slightly above the line in January forecast 2.7 3.2 percent.
World Bank stresses that 2010 to 2012, nearly half of global demand growth will come from developing countries. Developing countries during this time of year of economic growth will 5.7% to 6.2%, while the developed countries 2010 economic growth is expected in 2.1% to 2.3%.
The main representatives of developed economies of the OECD and the world economy had relatively optimistic expectations. In a recent report, the organization noted that the global economic recovery situation is good, but sovereign debt crises risks remain. The OECD believes that global trade is fast recovery in 2009 nearly 11 percent decline in global trade after this year is expected to grow 10.6 per cent. The organization believes that global fixed investment and household consumption recovery can also accelerate, Asia's rapid economic growth of spillover effects may be more robust than expected.
According to the OECD forecasts, the Member States of the Organization of the GDP in 2010 will increase 2.7%, 2011 will 2.8 percent. Even if it is caught in the debt crisis in the euro area, the OECD on their next year of economic growth projections reached 1.2 1.8 percent. The OECD is expected this year and next year United States economic growth will reach 3.2%, while Japan's economy will grow 3.0 2.0 percent.
The United Nations in last month's report is expected in developed countries this year's economic growth is 1.9%, 2011 projected growth 2.1%. Which the United States economy this year and next year's growth rate is expected to 2.9% and 2.5%, EU 1.0% and 1.8%, Japan's economy is expected to grow next year 1.3%. Report estimated that the economic growth of developing countries in 2010 the 5.9% in 2011 5.8%.
"Global economic growth has resumed, just the uneven recovery recovery remains fragile. "In the just concluded shortly before the G20 Summit, the world's major economies leaders made the unanimous judgment. Although Europe loan crisis in the air, the policy challenges, but withdrew from the world's largest economies, policy makers still current world economic recovery had made a careful assessment of optimism.
But it is worth noting that, although the major institutions for the next two years an overall optimistic growth projections, but on short-term growth slowdown risks are kept vigilance. The second half of the growth will be more difficult, has become the consensus of all sectors.
At the end of the second approach is still possible
"The global economy is likely to have early this year the growth experienced this round, the next highest point will be slowed down. "OECD Deputy Chief Economist, Joe root · Elmes Cove in a recent interview with the Shanghai Securities News reporter said, he said, whether developed or developing countries, economic growth in the second half will slow down, because the financial crisis during the launch of the stimulus policies are gradually withdraw from, at the same time economic recovery from the recession of the strong rebound phase is over. But he also believes that next year, the global economy will again be
The accelerated.As the last wave of the global financial crisis began in the financial markets, the past two months, global investors and decision makers the same from the market of turbulent in the year or never disturbed. Just past the second quarter, the national stock markets have experienced since 2008 Lehman's worst quarter since, commodities and foreign exchange market is also frequently staged roller coaster stock market.
So familiar movements also let people easily associate it two years ago, recently, the global economy may appear twice on the bottom of the sound began to significantly more.
In the past few years the economic trend forecasting has maintained a very high accuracy of famous economists Roche is not so optimistic. In an interview last week, the Shanghai securities news reporters, Roche reiterated that he continues to believe that the world economy, 40% probability of reproducing the recession. In January of this year in the Roche "second recession" warning, his main worry in the world economy will be vulnerable to certain "after the crisis," the impact of killer. In his view, compared with traditional v-strong economic recovery, the weakness of the global recovery of a normal "cyclical cushion", which makes such a recovery is more vulnerable to external shocks.
Early this year, Roche can see on the world economic recovery potential impact mainly in two areas: one is the u.s.-China trade friction of full-blown, second, the central banks of the exit strategy failed. "Now I will plus is a European sovereign debt crises. "Roche last week told reporters that" in short, the global economy at the end of the second exploration continues to have a high probability. ”
"Greece crisis has reminded us, the world economic recovery remains fragile, second on the bottom of the possibility still exists. "World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist said Lin yifu. He said the World Bank's analysis of the recent world economy facing two possibilities: the best scenario is Greece's debt crisis under control, the global financial market stability; in the worst scenario is that some high-income countries debt crisis conduction to developing countries, the global development of a new round of attacks.
International rating agency Fitch report published this month warned that the European sovereign debt problems and the financial markets again flip-flop, increases the world economy back into recession risks. Fitch analysts in the report, the current global economic prospects and sovereign credit, are at a "critical and uncertainty of nodes". Ernst recently released the 2010 European investment attraction report also believes that the euro area economy is still facing downward risk, "the second possibility is still on the bottom".
However, many people do not believe that there will be another recession, or even a "at the end of the second exploration," is also a relative of the exploration base. Independent economists "recently said that in fact at the end of the second exploration has started, it does not refer to the rapid decline of the economy, but is slowly declining. In his view, this slow down at the end of the second approach may be continued for two years. And the reason why this situation appears, "that is mainly composed of two main causes: first, the United States real estate market at the end of the second exploration, Europe because the debt crisis and had to take vigorous fiscal austerity.
OECD Secretary-General Angel · Guria that, although the pace of recovery in Europe lagging behind, but its adverse impact does not mask the developing regions and other OECD members of growth, global economic fundamentals remain positive, does not appear at the end of the "second exploration."
Goldman Sachs Global Chief Economist Jim O'Neill · has been firmly remain optimistic. Last week to accept the Shanghai securities news reporters, O'Neill repeat: do not appear in the global economy at the end of the second exploration. "The world economy is in the first half from strong slightly slow down the pace of growth next year won't be any problem. "O'Neill said. 12
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