European debt crisis of the two transduction chain.

<P> G20 member countries, the world's major economies, the economic ministers and central bank governors on Saturday agreed to cooperate to prevent financial market turmoil and maintain healthy world economic recovery. .Will be included in later national leaders, including Barack Obama talk to a summary statement, 20 countries signed a rescue policy for Europe, and by strengthening domestic demand and trade with developing countries, growth re-balancing ., called for speeding up financial reform, slashing the budget deficit. .</ P> <P> However, the introduction of Europe is still worried about the debt crisis: the global economy since the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers caused the financial crisis, will not "double dip"? .</ P> <P> and Hungary on Friday warned that it is from the Greek, Spain and Portugal after a problem in the country, resulting in the euro against the dollar for the first time in over four years at $ 1.20 or less. .</ P> <P> prospects in Europe since the geometric evolution of the debt crisis? .Worsening debt crisis will impact how the world economy? .</ P> <P> still optimistic about the prospects of the debt crisis </ P> <P> Merchants Bank analyst Dong-Liang Liu, said the evolution of the crisis in general there are two roads, one crisis point, the market began to recover confidence in the crisis countries .successful conduct of the financial constraints, this is the case, the crisis on the global economy may be only slight downside risks, the depreciation of the euro may even boost the economic recovery in Europe; The other path is the protracted crisis, market confidence .default risk in the ongoing crumbling under the pressure, causing the banking crisis, a result that will be the global economy, including China, have significant downside risk. .</ P> <P> "the EU has been generous to the establishment of 7,500 million euros in stabilization fund, but that does not appear to resolve the potential risk of default. In the European Union's stringent requirements, the Greek developed a harsh austerity plan, freezing .wages, cut spending, raise taxes, which moves counter-cyclical economic recovery is clearly not conducive to Greece, at the expense of economic growth prospects based on the large concentrations of debt, it is easy to bring about the collapse of the Greek domestic economy, or will bring the debt .breach of contract, and this is most worried about the market. "</ P> <P> this problem plagued Greece in several other countries in crisis to bring the same risk" financing difficulties arise when a country, or Greece, showing signs of debt restructuring .The market will be further increased risk aversion, investors will grab and throw away before the real holding of default of bonds and related assets, which will force default expected to become a reality. "Dong-Liang Liu said, when the European banking industry will not .assets minus mind not to repeat the scene after the collapse of Lehman, interruption of economic recovery in Europe, and even drag it into the second recession. .</ P> <P> debt crisis and the impact of the transmission chain </ P> <P> in the analysis view, the debt crisis will be conducted out of two chains, namely, finance and trade. .Developed countries, mainly through the financial chain of transmission, while emerging markets like China, conducted mainly through the trade chain. .</ P> <P> developed financial markets closely, such as Western Europe and the United States only in Greece and Portugal have exposure to 522 billion U.S. dollars, in the rest of the country's exposure to the crisis is even more amazing, once large-scale assets .write-down, breadth and depth of impact may exceed expectations. .</ P> <P> "the possible exception of Japan, for a conservative investment style, Japan and Asia's financial industry has not keen on high-risk overseas investment, which make it in time to ride out credit crisis .and make the yen and U.S. bonds have the same hedge position. "analysts expect the impact of Japan's financial industry will be significantly less than the U.S. and Europe, the yen could appreciate again periodically. .</ P> <P> but Japan and China, Korea and other Asian emerging markets may be affected by the impact of trade chain, emerging markets in Asia are too dependent on overseas trade, and highly vulnerable to external economic cycle. .However, the EU (excluding UK) in the proportion of Japan's export share, lower than China and the United States, the impact on Japanese exports will be less than the U.S., but taking into account Japan's economic growth momentum already in short supply, enough to seriously undermine the impact of Japan .recovery. .</ P> <P> for China, the EU is China's largest export destination, the proportion of total exports (excluding UK) to 17%, so the debt crisis will pose a challenge to Chinese exports. .In fact, recently there have been some sporadic reports that European importers due to the uncertain prospects for the future, or suspended due to local banks to provide security, China has canceled the order, although this trend has not yet formed, there is reason to believe that .If the crisis worsened, the proportion of cancel the order there will be increased significantly. .</ P> <P> "China's exports to the EU accounted for only about 6% of GDP, but not a serious drag on the Chinese economy, but exports to the United States a higher proportion of the EU, the financial system is also easy to be affected, and the U.S. .As the largest group of consumers that no one can replace, so then we need to consider the process of slowing U.S. economic recovery, exports to China as well as the negative impact of the global economy. "Dong-Liang Liu said. .</ P>.