Saturday, December 18, 2010

Gradual easing global interest rates still remain far.

<P> This week, Japan, Australia, Korea, Canada, Britain and other central banks will have released the latest rate decision, last week the two major central banks - the Federal Reserve and European central banks keep interest rates unchanged in the environment, the majority of .the attitude of the central bank to raise interest rates remained cautious and conservative. .</ P> <P> present, the market generally judge, Japan, Australia and the Bank of England interest-rate meeting this week to make interest rates unchanged in the resolution, while the Bank of Canada and South Korea are likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each. .</ P> <P> Korean interest rate increase can not be continued </ P> <P> a number of financial institutions from the current study published reports, many analysts predict the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates on September 8 .25 basis points to 1%, continuing in June and July's rate hikes. ."This year, Canada's economic recovery trend is more obvious, the Bank of Canada interest rate increase which became the greatest force." Researcher in a Chinese bank to accept the "International Finance," an interview that "the United States announced on Friday a good .the market expected non-farm employment data, but also to some extent, supported the market for the Bank of Canada rate hike expectations. "</ P> <P> However, OCBC Bank analyst Xie Dongming interviewed in said: ."Bank of Canada interest rate move does not mean that monetary policy tightening, the performance is to normalize interest rates. and the future economic trends in the Bank of Canada will decide whether to continue raising interest rates, expected rate hike during the year will gradually weaker .. "Some analysts pointed out that Canada is lower than expected second quarter GDP data and the Fed to take further increase the possibility of quantitative easing policy, or to the Bank of Canada interest rate decision announced at a more moderate policy statement, and suggest a short period .pause pace. .</ P> <P> Similarly, the stability of the domestic economy makes the market generally believed that the recovery trend of the Bank of Korea will raise interest rates Wednesday, while rising inflation expectations, compared with interest rate expectations, "heat." .Although South Korea in August CPI increased by 2.6% year on year, has for 7 months, less than 3%; However, with sustained and rapid recovery of the Korean economy, Korea is facing inflationary pressure may increase. .Bank of Korea Governor Jin Zhongxiu had previously warned that inflation could accelerate the rise in the fourth quarter, and exceeded the inflation target range this year, Bank of Korea 2% -4% of the midpoint. .</ P> <P> However, Xie Dongming that the South Korean central bank interest rates on Wednesday for greater resolution may be to keep interest rates unchanged. .Robinson, Moody's senior scientists that the Bank of Korea would be prudent to gradually withdraw monetary stimulus, because the South Korean real estate market is cooling rapidly, the market worries deepen, the central bank if it is too active but will have the opposite effect. ."Despite the rapid rise in inflation is likely to Korea, but the global economic trend is still obvious, therefore, if the world's major countries do not raise interest rates, Korea's fourth quarter to continue raising interest rates is unlikely." The researchers said. .</ P> <P> policy remains accommodative, "call the shots" </ P> <P> to the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the time to discuss interest rates almost no suspense - as has always been the main interest rates unchanged .tone. .Although the recently published UK statistics office data showed the British the second quarter GDP growth up to 1.7% annual rate, but market participants were expecting third-quarter UK GDP growth will slow to 0.5%. .</ P> <P> economists expect the Bank of England at the end of the second quarter of 2011, will begin raising interest rates from the current record low of 0.5% increased 25 basis points. ."The current market is widely expected the Fed will hike the second quarter of next year, the European Central Bank and Bank of England will follow. Although the last meeting of the Bank of England minutes showed the Bank of England of a relaxation or tightening of monetary policy may ., and to make both hands ready to adjust monetary policy. However, the Bank of England to raise interest rates before the Fed is unlikely to ease monetary policy and the possibility of relatively large. "researchers said the bank. .</ P> <P> Xie Dongming believe the Bank will not raise interest rates Thursday, and its assets, repurchase plan has been stalled for some time, interest in this proposal will not restart a new round of asset repurchase program .. .Meanwhile, the market expects the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and will not introduce new liquidity injection plan, and may be further easing of monetary policy implementation was delayed to 10 months. .</ P> <P> If the economy "lack of confidence," a direct result of the day, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, then the concerns about the outlook for the economy is stop the central bank to raise interest rates in Australia the biggest factor. .Data released on Wednesday, Australia's second-quarter GDP growth of 1.2% qoq, an increase of 3.3%, far more than economists expected. .And despite the strong economic data to the central bank to raise interest rates in Australia chips, but the market is still widely predicted, the central bank will decide interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. .</ P> <P> CraigJames senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said: "The Australian central bank will no doubt prove to you, the current good economic performance in Australia. But we also recognize that the economy still faces from overseas markets in the .many uncertainties. Despite the end of this year or early next year in the interest rate risk exists, but for now, the Australian central bank will not take such action. "</ P>.

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