Commodities are cattle to bear to.

<P> "Began in 2009, the commodity bull market is not over, the next two years will continue to show an upward trend." UBS global commodity analyst Tom • Prius at UBS, said that the annual meeting. .</ P> <P> bull market will continue </ P> <P> "should be said that the current market more than 12 months before the optimistic, and many people start making money, it is very important," Tom • Prius ."We forecast the next two years or a commodity market there will be an upward trend, and it seems the financial crisis seems to be 'flash in the pan'." </ P> <P> Tom • Prius that in the past 5 to 10 years .time, China's commodities trading played a very important role. .Especially in 2009, China became the only country to buy goods a lot. .While other have a greater demand for commodities of countries such as Britain, there is no bulk purchase, so the whole of China in 2009 changes in global commodity prices have played a crucial role. .</ P> <P> Outlook 2010, Tom • Prius that, in addition to China, the United States, Europe and other countries the demand for commodities will continue to grow, which eventually will be directly reflected in the volatility of commodity prices on .that the rising trend continues. .Therefore, the next two years in commodity markets will maintain an upward trend, but in the process there may be some unstable factors. .</ P> <P> These uncertainties include the economic stimulus plan out the timing, commodity prices curb demand, changes and currency movements between China and other countries in trade relations. .</ P> <P> steel prices from high to low </ P> <P> steel industry analyst with UBS Securities, said Tang Xiao Bo, the first half of 2010, the Chinese steel market will be higher production and prices, while in the second half may .will decrease. .He used "high low" 4 words to forecast China's steel market in 2010. .</ P> <P> the reason he is now part of the steel demand is expected steel prices, increased raw material prices caused stocks, some of this demand will be released in full this year; another part of the demand is due in 2009 .the fourth quarter put a lot of credit, ample liquidity, but to judge the current situation, China will enter the second quarter of this year tightening cycle of monetary tightening, which will certainly have the market liquidity, capital cost, impact, and then compressed .investment projects, reducing demand for this section. .</ P> <P> Tang Xiao Bo is expected that China's steel output this year is likely to reach 5.9 million tons, compared with 565 million tons in 2009 increased by 4.4%. .</ P> <P> Tang Xiao Bo said that last year the market tend to choose "to promote the type of infrastructure projects," the steel, but this year, the market will tend to consumer related products. .Therefore, he is more optimistic about the future of large-scale investment opportunities in steel prices. .</ P> <P> hand, if raw material prices, the contract price less than the spot price back to the stage, then the cost of large companies, product structure will be more obvious advantages; the other hand, although the first half of 2009, .is indeed a long steel plate sales better than the situation, but in 2010, car panels, appliance panels, and other high-end cold-rolled sheet, will be to maintain good posture. .</ P> <P> but to the entire Chinese steel industry, still hard to change the status of two captive: the upstream (raw material pricing), subject to the three major mining companies; downstream (steel price), subject to industry-wide overcapacity .. .</ P> <P> Tom • Prius also said that China will enter the second quarter of this year tightening cycle, Once you enter this cycle, raising the cost of capital, liquidity tightening, investment projects will be compressed. .Therefore, steel production would be some impact. .</ P> <P> iron ore will rise </ P> <P> Tom • Prius that BHP Billiton supply to reach 120 million tons this year, Rio Tinto and CVRD supply more than 2 million tons, the second .who are the next 5 years, 50% increase. .However, in raw materials, labor matching, these pressures many iron ore suppliers. .Iron ore companies need to invest more to solve the matching of labor and raw materials. .</ P> <P> in the next few weeks, Tom • amendments to the original Prius may rise 20% iron ore price forecast. ."I'm with Australia, Britain, the United States over the exchange, the market has an overall judging in 2010, iron ore prices could rise 40-50 percent." Tom • Prius told reporters. .</ P> <P> which Royal Bank of Scotland chief China economist Beizhe minded people. .He believes that there is still room for growth of iron ore. .In 2009, China's steel production capacity and output increases more than expected, even the small steel mills have been re-started. .Therefore, overcapacity remains a problem, but not a big problem in 2011. .Chinese port iron ore stocks have fallen to less than 30 days of usage. .If not the Chinese buyers, local buyers seem to have no choice but to accept price increases. .Meanwhile, coal prices less space. .However, the market supply and demand balance is relatively weak, demand shocks may significantly push up prices. .</ P> <P> copper still favor </ P> <P> Beizhe China, said soaring commodity prices in 2009 the situation will change in 2010, China's influence will result in 12 to 18 more months .slow prices. .Supply is an important reason. .China's domestic manufacturers are to restart idle capacity, which helps explain the second half of 2009, an increase of energy and the rapid rise in industrial production. .</ P> <P> needs are also important factors. .The public sector to stop buying the second quarter of 2009, the strategic reserve, the decrease in the replenishment. .Tightening of credit growth, but also cause squeezing the private sector. .There are signs that some Chinese buyers are back on sale to the market, the London Metal Exchange copper warehouse stocks in Asia rose, also confirmed this view. .</ P> <P> Beizhe people expected, copper will continue to be favored, but the greater upside of aluminum. .There is a structural shortage of copper in China. .But China's actions have strategic stocks before the end of 6 months. .A strong rise in copper prices, while aluminum is relatively slow. .Although China does not there is a structural shortage of aluminum, and in the past 6 months, China has also launched a massive amount of spare capacity, when the global aluminum inventories equivalent to 10 weeks of production. .However, aluminum is closely related with the global recovery, the global increase in demand would help to eliminate inventory. .</ P> <P> "Despite the trend of tightening liquidity, but other economies, money supply is still loose, copper has a role in promoting this." UBS head of research at the Asia-Pacific Mining White Zhongyi such judgments. .</ P> <P> Pak Chung, believes that, compared with the 90s of last century, more and more money has nothing to do with the industry entering the copper market. .Currently, the main uncertainty lies in monetary policy. .</ P> <P> White Zhongyi said, relatively speaking, does not prove the actual needs of copper market prices is justified. .From the central bank perspective, because now the actual demand for base metals is still not fully recovered, and thus the tight monetary policy is unlikely. .The supply side, the sustainability of the mining investment, and thus the supply of copper remained stable over the past few years. .</ P> <P> Goldman Sachs expects oil, lead, copper, zinc and the best performance in 2010, because of the emerging market demand and supply constraints of the most influential, will benefit from a recovery in demand in the most. .</ P> <P> Goldman Sachs commodities analyst JeffreyCurrie expected, lead, copper, oil, zinc 2010, the best performance in the commodity markets. .</ P> <P> Currie said that emerging market demand and supply constraints of the most influential metal commodities have the best prospects. .Lead producers are to almost 100% capacity utilization for production, while copper and zinc are all close to capacity utilization is 95%, so these types of goods to the revival of demand from 2010 to benefit the most. .</ P> <P> Currie also said that aluminum and nickel is the least optimistic about the Goldman Sachs commodity metals. .Health manufacturers of aluminum present capacity utilization of 75%, while nickel will be subject to the Chinese nickel pig iron technology development. .However, most metal commodities in 2010 will be a large-scale stock most of the time limit. .</ P> <P> from a more long-term perspective, Currie that copper has the best prospects, because the cable wires and power infrastructure, the copper is very little alternative. .Investment in new copper is also limited by government policies, mainly on capital flows and labor mobility restrictions. .Based on these two factors, in 5, 10 or 20 years these time periods, copper should bring the best return on investment. .</ P>.