Currency U.S. dollar imminent war, the culprit.

<P> 3 years ago, "Currency War," a book popular in the country. .3 years later, with the Bank of Japan after 4 years of zero interest rates again resorted to in order to prevent further appreciation of the yen; and the Australian dollar, Korean won and other currencies continued strength, its government claimed to intervene in currency markets. .The market suddenly exclaimed, currency war is really coming! .</ P> <P> then, the currency war, what exactly is the deep reason? .Is it true currency will perform a "Spring scrimmage?" .</ P> <P> dollar plunged many countries to intervene in the exchange rate </ P> <P> 9 15, Wednesday, when the pointer go to Beijing 11:30, traders are suddenly aware of the super push up pay .dollar against the yen. .And because the rapid turnover enlarged list of retail level has been difficult to enter for the first time. .Day, the dollar closed at 85.55 against the Japanese yen, or 2.99%, nearly 5 months to record its biggest one day gain. .Difficult to understand is that just the day before the currency hit a 15-year low. .</ P> <P> alarming is that, then Japanese Finance Minister publicly confirmed wild Tianjia Yan, Japanese Finance Ministry had foreign exchange intervention, but declined to intervene in size. .Nevertheless, the yen has not been so out of sharp appreciation of fate. .As of last Friday's close, the U.S. dollar against the yen since January to close at 81.9,9 has fallen nearly 3%. .</ P> <P> sharp appreciation of the yen weakening exports and the economic slowdown home and less abroad, the Bank of Japan announced on October 5 inter-bank unsecured overnight call rate down to zero from 0.1% to 0.1%. .Not only is this the line to restart the first time since 2006, zero interest rate policy, is shot twice within 1 month intervene in currency markets. .Unfortunately, according to statistics, 1 October to 8 fall between the U.S. dollar against the yen is still about 2%. .</ P> <P> International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said 7 days, as countries around the world lack of coordination between monetary policy, "currency war" may occur. .And if that is the "war" means that participants not only the yen side. .In fact, including the Korean won recently, the Australian dollar, Brazilian real, the euro and other currencies out of the unilateral strong market. .Abnormal rise in national currency, some countries have emitted the signal, or the central bank has intervened in the exchange rate. .Currency War has triggered! .</ P> <P> data, October 1 to 8, the euro gained 2.2% against the dollar, close to 8 months to high; Australian dollar rose 2.2% to 0.9851 total, a record 27 year high .level; dollar won, the dollar is down against the Thai baht were 1.8%, 1.5%. .Since the latter of which in one fell swoop hit its lowest level since August 2007. .</ P> <P> However, the Japanese central bank intervention in currency markets as a winter wildfire, a "currency war" has followed the smoke into the sky. .One South Korean government said that in order to prevent the inflow of foreign capital over the impact of won, want to strengthen the foreign exchange derivatives. .In view of potential volatility in currency markets recently, plans to intervene when necessary. .Statistics show that South Korea currently holds U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to the highest point since March this year, $ 39,300,000,000; 4, the Brazilian government called for the stability of the Brazilian real currency, increasing foreign investors for fixed income investments in Brazil's financial .operating tax rate to 4%, also approved an increase in the local market to absorb dollars, </ P> <P> dollars buried quantitative easing "evil" </ P> <P> 1914 年 6 months, the Sarajevo War lit up directly .4 years smoke. .The source of the money behind the war what is it? .</ P> <P> Thunder Guotai Junan Li, chief economist to the "Daily News" said the direct cause of war, the U.S. dollar currency devaluation, resulting in other currencies against the U.S. dollar. .But in the end, the most essential reason is the market expected the Fed will start the second round of quantitative easing, eventually lifting the dollar lower long-term expectations. .The fact is that many countries tend to rely on currency depreciation to boost the economy, but the results while filling a substantial influx of commodity hedge funds, gold and other assets, resulting in inflation expectations increase; on the other hand, the financial crisis, national policy is more .tend to short-term. .In this way not only failed to improve the balance sheet, but the stimulus by means of quantitative easing growing debt levels. .</ P> <P> "because November will be held in the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, so the strength of short-term non-US currencies will be high probability events, which is why governments did not intervene in currency markets to boost the currency after the reasons," Lee said Thunder ."But it is worth noting that, due to more competitive U.S. long-term, long term U.S. dollar is likely to be reversed." </ P> <P> data, October 1 to 8, the dollar index fell .2%, 9 single month plunged more than 5%, so the dollar index since the second half of this year the cumulative drop of 10%. .The reporters found that the first half of 2000 to the end of the year and a half year to 21, only hit in the first half of 2002 the largest decline of 9%, during an average of 0.6%. .</ P> <P> Dongguan Yu Jie, deputy director of Securities Research Institute, told reporters that the money is the root cause of war, the United States want to restart the quantitative easing, and ultimately the depreciation of the dollar and stimulate exports purposes. .It is worth mentioning that such a move is equivalent to the expense of future benefits in exchange for immediate, in order to shift the financial crisis losses. .But in that case, the U.S. dollar currency long-term dominance will certainly be shaken. .Even so, other countries are more likely to just say do not do, in the hedge funds have entered the commodity market conditions, currency intervention alone is simply very difficult to reverse the trend depreciation of the dollar. .</ P> <P> Geithner made "multilateral cooperation," the first step </ P> <P> yesterday (October 10) the end of the IMF and World Bank annual meeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Gate .more satisfied implicitly expressed the views of the current international monetary situation, because he did not put the finger at China. .He believes that economic development in some countries should not harm other countries, built on the basis of economic interests. .Most developed countries, domestic consumption in emerging markets while driving should promote exports, so as to make them (manipulator) of the currency appreciation. .</ P> <P> In addition, he also pointed out that, IMF rebalance the world economy which plays an important role, should play the role of commander in chief to support a number of countries for the economy to balance the action. .Some media said, following the adoption of the House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Geithner Levin, Sander "multilateral cooperation programs," after the first step. .Not long ago, the U.S. House of Representatives by 348 votes to just 79 votes by a large proportion of the "exchange rate reforms to promote Fair Trade Act." .</ P> <P> However, most developed and the exchange rate issue that still need to be treated with caution. .Many heads of state and finance ministers are concerned that recent exchange rate in some countries (eg China) will provoke more stress imposed by a strong resistance. .Popular "currency war" the statement from Brazil Finance Minister 吉多曼特加 September 27 announced the Brazilian government will intervene in currency markets when the statement. .</ P> <P> International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss - Kahn said: "IMF should be 'better' in capital flows, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates work. When necessary, IMF .the appropriate files will be introduced to illustrate the economic stability in the 'systemic stability initiatives' importance in the. </ P> <P> However, Geithner appointed for IMF "economic rebalancing commander in chief" of the hat, he did not .shy and slightly humorous when he said: "Although the IMF should play a leading role, but we trade and exchange rate policies affect the country's poor record is obvious, after all, it is difficult to trade-offs among the interests of many countries. ."</ P> <P> CASS financial Cao Honghui, director of the financial markets believe that the current United States is pursuing the" quantitative easing "monetary policy makes a lot of liquidity, further depreciation in the dollar, but also lead to other countries .currency appreciation pressure intensified. </ P> <P> just concluded in Washington in seven western countries (G7) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, the G-7 reached a consensus, will cooperate to avoid exporting countries to stimulate the economy while maintaining .the competitive devaluations of events. </ P>.