Monday, December 20, 2010

Regional inflation "fever" difficult to exit

After the crisis period, the recovery in emerging market is obviously better than developed economies, but recently has become the United States for the second round of the quantitative easing policy of "victim". With the increasing influx of hot money, consumer price index (CPI) continued to move up. Asia-Pacific countries to food-oriented consumer price rise "," acoustic piece of India, Korea, with notable price pressures. To curb inflation, interest rate again in some countries the "killer app". At the same time, the United States domestic food prices began to rise, businesses appear to reduce costs to ensure profits, consumer goods and retail market competition is increasingly heated.

South Korea-India prices spiraling

Korea prices have been on the leading developed economies. Korea Statistical Office in November with the latest data, in October, Korea food prices rose 49.6%, the highest since 1990. Affected by the sharp rise in food prices, Korea October CPI up 4.1 percent, 20 months for the first time since more than 4%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 18 November release report is expected in 2010 Korea CPI will rise 3.1% global 33 # 3 in developed countries.

The efforts of the Government in Korea, some time ago was the "gold" cabbage price decline, but still higher than the same period last year, more than three times. In addition to fish, meat prices still rising trend is obvious. Seoul some meat shop owner said that beef prices since the cumulative 2008 has gone up 20%. Chinese students narrative that Korea street side of the small restaurant simply eating a meal, the two men take 35000 to 40000 won (approximately 200 to 240 Yuan); a bowl of cold or mixed rice price is between 5000 and 7000 won (about RMB 30-42). Korea network magazine wrote that "in the relatively cheap wholesale buying vegetables, a four week approximately takes 70000 won (approximately 420 Yuan), which also does not include meat food; if the price in the supermarket to buy, 3 times more expensive. "Food consumption in Korea general public daily consumption accounted for a large scale, sustainable food prices through the roof so that Korea people struggle with.

In comparison with Korea, India is the emerging economies, countries in economic growth to higher national, but also suffering from the effects of inflation, India inflation levels in the Group of twenty (G20) member countries is one of the most high. To food, for example, as of the end of October, 2010 India food prices has 52 weeks of sustained double-digit increases in food prices, the current month or as high as 13.75%.

Rapidly rising prices make India consumers feel their economic growth. India people like vegetarian, potatoes are an important food for three meals a day. In early 2009, India market per kg potatoes 8 rupees (approximately 1.33 Yuan), in the middle of November of this year, potato prices have leapt up to 15 rupees per kg (approximately 2.5 Yuan), or as high as 87.5%. Food price increases will have a direct impact on the public life and the mood, but also to the India Government policy adjustment challenges.

Forced to turn on the interest rate channel

France Industrial Bank Asia Pacific data showed that the "as of the end of October, 2010 year net inflows in emerging economies, international capital of capital markets has reached 510 billion, a net inflow of 39 in October. "As the effective control of hot money inflow, a stable domestic prices and lower inflation, since the second half of this year, some countries in the Asia Pacific region has successively implemented tighten monetary policy to open the interest rate channel.

Since Oct. 20, China's central bank rates in RMB deposit and loan interest rate, 2 November, India's Central Bank announces upward national deposit and loan interest rate, this is the India this year for the sixth time. India Finance Ministers Tillamook Gil said, hope through interest rate measures to control fast rising prices, the Government plans to 2011, the national inflation rate down to 6% to 7%.

2 November day, Australia's Central Bank also announced that the interest rate. This is Australia since October last year for the seventh time since, also in the interest rate express train stop 5 months after started again. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently pointed out that Australia's mining boom and capital market openness, may soon be pushed the inflation rate to Australia to new heights.

From Australia's central bank interest rate after half a month, November 16, Korea's Central Bank announces this year's second rate hike. Korea's Central Bank said that through this interest rate increase is primarily intended to discourage domestic inflation. Korea inflation has increased the number of consecutive month more hop to 4.1%, consumer prices increased again disturbed mental, making the Government stimulus in the "continue" and "curb inflation" pushed chose the latter.

Beauty food price rise

United States Department of labor, United States October CPI rose 0.2% de minimis, core CPI for the third consecutive month. Although inflation remained at a relatively low level, but the food price increases is an indisputable fact. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that "the tide had begun to spread to the inflation in the United States around the supermarket and restaurants, food prices over the past 20 years the most stable period may end soon. ”

In recent months, the United States people often consume milk, beef, coffee, sugar and other basic food prices rising, rising has quietly speed exceeds the overall inflation rate in the United States. United States Department of agriculture data show that in the past 12 months, the country's food price index rose by 1.4%. The Government estimates that by 2010 the first half of 2011, food inflation will reach 2% to 3%.

Food prices caused the United States consumer goods increasingly competitive market. Citibank to a new survey shows that despite this year's Thanksgiving the merchants are riveting foot effort like grasping the annual Shopping Festival earned profits, but nearly 50% of the respondents indicated that the next few months will avoid bulk procurement of goods, 51% of the respondents decided to cancel the Thanksgiving dinner that evening out, select home to celebrate the Festival.

In order to

Digestion costs keep profits, all businesses have resorted to marketing tactics to attract consumers. In addition to the traditional discount promotions, like retail giant Wal-Mart, Amazon, and other competing network retailer launched the net acquisition offers. Thanksgiving In addition, some small "maojiu supermarket" and "dollar stores" everywhere, "8 package instant noodles, a bottle of oyster sauce, half a dozen eggs, 1 liter with Cola, a package chuangketie ..." — various commodities are just one dollar. Data show that the "dollar General Corporation," American Branch has exceeded the number 9200 family has far exceeded the retail giant Wal-Mart 3800 +, and are increasingly expanding. Food prices caused by competition among retailers will increasingly heated.

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