In the United States economic data of interest, after high tide slightly this week and the rating agencies have initiated action, people had to turn our attention back to European sovereign debt crises. However, analysts believe that this may just be a phase.
Rating agencies and a new action
Rating agency Moody's yesterday will Portugal Government bond ratings of two levels, since Aa2 to A1, rating Outlook is stable, Moody's believes that the financial position of the Government of Portugal may continue to deteriorate, and economic growth prospects are bleak.
Adjustment of the above, the Ministry of Finance of Portugal, said that the market is expected to Moody's cut action, they believe that the fiscal consolidation may have an impact on the economic recovery, but consolidation remains necessary.
In addition, rating agencies sandp Monday in the confirmation of the AAA rating United Kingdom while warning that United Kingdom Government debt is high, so you may face the risk ratings, this move has caused market alert. United Kingdom announced emergency budget, has been affirmed rating agencies.
The above actions gave rise to the euro, pound sterling fell, but compared with the first half of the time, the rating was lowered power clearly has a lot of small, basically still maintain exchange rate shocks.
Limited impact
China Merchants Bank's analysts, Dong-liang told reporters that rating agencies move aroused waves smaller, but he believed that debt problems may once again become the hot phase of the market, but it is expected that there will not be much of an impact.
He said some time ago, the United States market "hype" of obstacles to economic recovery, and now attention is likely to return to Europe, after all, Europe's debt problem has been resolved.
The European banking industry pressure test results will be announced on 23 July, the market is expected on this is in fact more optimistic. Liu Liang told reporters that results may not be too large.
Yesterday, the European Economic Research (ZEW), analysts said, do not think that the Bank stress test will affect the popularity, and pointed out that European sovereign debt crisis-related fear seems to have disappeared.
On the debt crisis of fear has been relaxed, from market on rating agencies have also been reflected in the response. At the end of June "Lujiazui Forum", Standard & Poor's Asia-Pacific Heads sandp told reporters that reveal the behavior of the default risk, while bond prices of influencing factors should be many, but the debt crisis, the market panic may expand the rating agencies played the role of behavior.
EUR/USD remains shocks
Yesterday, the EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.25 shocks, since June, the EUR/USD has bounced around 6.7%.
The expected based on the optimistic, banking stress test results expected to be on the EUR/USD continue to support, analysts and even believes that the EUR/USD may take advantage of the prices to 1.30.
However, the distance from the European Bank stress test results for some time, the test results on effects of recent exchange rates may also not be apparent, moreover, from yesterday's performance, risk appetite on exchange rate impact seems to be greater, and the United States this week there are several large enterprises announces second quarter results, results in the stock market as well as the risk appetite of the exchange rate may apply.
In the second half of the exchange rate forecast, most analysts agree that dollar temporarily in a callback, but outstanding debt, and fiscal consolidation on the economic burden will enable European currency again vulnerable.
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