IMF "smoke and mirrors" the world economic outlook is more complicated.

<P> International Monetary Fund (IMF) 7 updated on the "World Economic Outlook", published in 2010 the latest forecast of economic growth. .One of the most concern is that the world economic growth forecast to 4.1% from the previous report, adjusted to 4.6%, 0.5 percentage points. .At the same time as the U.S. economic growth forecast of 3.3%, 1% in the euro zone, Japan 2.4%, of which the United States and Japan's economic growth forecast raised since the last report the results were 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points, the euro zone will remain unchanged .. .</ P> <P> At the same time, IMF warns that while increased growth forecast for 2010, but the second half of this year and 2011, the euro zone's financial turmoil, the downside risk was increased. .</ P> <P> here, that need to rationalize the logic. .IMF forecasts released throughout the year, the year the major variables should be quantified reflected in the forecasts. .Situation in the first half of economic growth foregone conclusion. .July's forecast of factors should be considered the best situation in the second half. .If the IMF to determine the second half of the world situation is "significantly increased downside risks" mainly to determine the second half to make adjustments comprehensive annual forecast of economic growth should be lower son. .The new world economic growth forecast for the full year of data does not fall but rise by 0.5 percentage points, the other individual economic entities are the United States and Japan, growth rates were raised, and even the hardest hit by the debt crisis in Europe the EU's economic growth rate remained unchanged. .Second half of the "downside risks to the economy increased significantly," the warning and raised full-year forecast of economic growth does not seem to be justified. .</ P> <P> IMF projections take into account a number of preconditions. .The report notes that the new forecast is a prerequisite to rebuild confidence and stability in policy (especially in the euro area) to be implemented. .These policies are not implemented, the downside risks were to contain it? .</ P> <P> If so, the prediction has to take into account the downside risks, then the downturn should not be significantly increased to issue the warning. .Particularly prominent re-separate out the risk, equivalent to a class of information transfer twice, but each pass a different message. .Prediction information is given in place as long as the policy implementation, economic downside risk to a certain extent is locked, so the economy will have higher growth. ."Warning" is exactly the opposite of information transfer, economic downside risk significantly increased, so increasing the probability of decline in economic growth. .</ P> <P> information and forecast adjusted with additional means to be "warning" is more easily understood, implemented and economic stabilization policies are not closely related degree downward. .Therefore, the economic downside risk "significant" increase in the second half of the mainstream trend. .If so, the increase in full-year forecast of the result of the global economy is not the result of a completely symmetric information to predict the results of the second half will be seriously misleading to judge the trend of the global economy. .</ P> <P> whether global economic growth or decline in the second half, the predicted result is a more likely situation, or "warning" the results are more likely to occur? .We seem to be the introduction of the maze, there is a sense of no avail. .</ P> <P> the world economy is really complicated. .IMF forecasts the world economy becomes more complex. .</ P>.