"The global liquidity crisis has been super level"

<P> "Global liquidity has exceeded pre-crisis levels, downside risks facing the global economy remains grim." Yesterday at the "2010 Annual Zhongguancun Forum" on the run after the world economic situation in the crisis, the International Monetary Fund .Special Adviser to President Zhu Min said so. .In his view, to save the global economy, "medicine" is the strategic development of emerging industries, but this road is also not smooth. .</ P> <P> "global economy is facing great difficulties" </ P> <P> Europe, America and Japan and other developed economies once again thrown a loose monetary policy statement, no doubt indicates that downside risks have become more severe. .In yesterday's keynote speech on the first throw Zhu such a phenomenon, "the current level of global economic growth with a peak before the crisis, there is still a gap. More importantly, global economic growth has begun to put .slow. " .</ P> <P> He pointed out that the growth in global industrial production fell sharply in late 2008, began a sharp rebound in 2009. .But this year in August, the global industrial growth slowed down, and this slowing trend is obvious. .</ P> <P> the International Monetary Fund earlier also warned that global economic recovery during the first half of this year better than expected, but the recovery in the first half of this year and next year is expected to temporarily slow down. .As the continuing effects of sovereign debt problems and financial markets remain weak, the global economic recovery is increasing the downside risks facing. .</ P> <P> "This makes the current global economy is a major difficulty. Weak economic growth, and growth in the fall, and the overall low level of government policy instruments at a low level is not before us. .This gives the whole a great deal of global economic and financial uncertainty, which is one of the biggest risks facing. "Zhu expressed great concern. .</ P> <P> "liquidity exceeded pre-crisis level" </ P> <P> collective higher international commodity, gold has repeatedly refresh the record high prices, the domestic stock market turnover hit, there are indications that excess global liquidity is .intensified. .</ P> <P> introduced, according to Zhu Min, the base currency throughout the developed world with M2 (broad money) to measure, in 2000, when M2 developed countries is 4.5 trillion dollars, rose to 9 trillion in 2008 .dollars. ."Financial crisis has resulted in decrease in the number M2, but with the implementation of monetary policy around the developed countries has risen to 10 trillion M2. In other words, in today's case, the global liquidity crisis, even more than before .levels. "Zhu Min said. .</ P> <P> Lu political commissar, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said, from the central bank's point of view, the recent launch of base money does indicate the current market liquidity is more abundant, and look at the global, non-western economies .high certainty, the U.S. loose monetary circulation, and low interest rates to begin to seek more capital investment in high-yield market, and East Asia with high expected growth in the future to attract more foreign capital to the eye, inevitably there have been "hot money ."trace. .</ P> <P> This is why people are concerned about Zhu. ."High level of interest rates in emerging economies, high growth, the environment, so a large scale to global capital in emerging economies, this will lead to appreciation of exchange rates in emerging economies, increased foreign exchange reserves, inflation and asset bubbles. This is the face of emerging economies .significant challenges. "He talked Road. .</ P> <P> World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher, said Sun Jie, because China's economy has maintained rapid growth for many years, and has a rate advantage and appreciation pressures, therefore, China has also become an international "hot money" .important destinations. .Data show that 4-June, was out of state cross-border capital, and 7-9 months to turn into the situation, inflow rate also accelerated, that "hot money" inflows accelerated to further increase the risk. .</ P> <P> "low growth under the structural adjustment in progress" </ P> <P> post-crisis era, around the world economy is facing a major test for structural adjustment. .Zhu believes that the starting point of the financial crisis is the excessive expansion of finance, the global economic volume of the polar stimulus policy, but the slow pace of restructuring the global economy is necessary. .</ P> <P> "the current global economy is in a recovery phase, but the speed is very slow, if not adjust the industrial structure of economies inherent pattern, is likely to cycle into the economy increased the downside risks." .Lu political commissar said. .</ P> <P> Lu political commissar of the example that, if a country from the low-to middle-income countries, labor market, wage demands increase, the labor market in low-income countries will be more dominant, but not as high a technical level but also .income countries, middle-income countries into the "bottleneck", so economic slowdown, needs restructuring; and high-income countries also face the risk of technological stagnation, need to innovate, it faces the global economic restructuring. .</ P> <P> the same time, Zhu stressed that the world is entering a low growth under the structural adjustment, but this is a medium-term or even a long-term process of deleveraging is a long process. .Since the financial crisis, "deleveraging" became synonymous with the times. .In short, the "deleveraging" is a company or individual the process of reducing the use of financial leverage, that is the original in various ways (or tool) to "borrow" the money back out to the trend. ."In this process, turn domestic demand, external demand, and strategic development of emerging industries to become critical." Zhu Min thought. .</ P> <P> China's economic "structural adjustment" is the time </ P> <P> year, "structural adjustment" in the name as the main tone of the domestic policy side. .The just-concluded seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session began to downplay the importance of economic growth, the future "Paul 8" may not be important. .World Bank economists said the move means that the future government pay more attention to the changes outside the purely economic, emphasizing the quality of economic growth rather than speed. .</ P> <P> "China is concerned, structural adjustment in three steps to expand domestic demand, fostering strategic emerging industries, to avoid falling into the economy 'bottleneck'." Commissar, said Lu. .Zhu Min, the forum also mentioned that future changes in the patterns of economic growth and structural changes in lifestyle will definitely increase the demand for new products, but also inevitably lead to the development of the strategic needs of emerging industries. .</ P> <P> At the same time, on the seventh session of the two days after the end of the Fifth Plenary Session, plus boots has finally landed interest, the central bank yesterday, on the one-year deposit and lending rates for a two-way adjustment, while other years also .the ladder upward. .Many analysts believe the central bank choose this time to raise interest rates, but also "structural adjustment" of the part. .China Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong, said the rate hike of the most important is to manage inflation expectations and prevent the spread of inflation and the further regulation of the real estate market. .</ P>.