Despite earlier Australia, Norway, Israel's Central Bank to hike set off a wave of global interest rate possible, but this trend in the last few days and finally evaporated, before the end of this year, global interest rate movement will temporarily receded.
Disperse the craze of deterministic factors are:
First, on 5 November, the United States Federal Reserve Board announced that it will maintain 0 — 0.25% benchmark interest rates unchanged for the interval. That night, the United Kingdom's Central Bank and the ECB also announced a maintenance 0.5% and 1.0% interest rate unchanged. While countries such as China and Japan also expressed in the near future will continue to maintain moderate loose monetary policy, the interest rate of temporarily blocked.
Second, on 7 November, the g-20 finance ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting joint communiqué known as published, countries will continue to maintain economic stimulus measures, until the global economic recovery. The communiqué said that economic recovery is still unstable, and still continue to need policy support, higher unemployment remains a major countries. United Kingdom Prime Minister Brown on the day of the meeting to speak clearly, now is the time of the stimulus measures to exit suddenly stop stimulus actions would be risky behavior, "some of the positive economic signals cannot be grounds for termination of the stimulus plan."
Third, judging from the phenomenon, with the exception of Australia, the other major Western economies and developing countries are to maintain the original interest rate, interest rate increases only minorities affected by financial crisis impact on smaller States take the lead on policies toward, and does not represent the world's major economies have entered the stage of increasing interest.
In addition, in the Pittsburgh G20 leaders prior to the Summit, the countries have reached will continue to maintain the economic stimulation policy, therefore, were it not for the individual national economy has established a strong recovery or change the orientation of monetary policy in the short term the main economies will continue to be a common response is not fully determine the global economic recovery situation. This is outside the country of 20 finance ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in line with the market generally expect.
At this point, as the world's major economies, United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and China in monetary policy choices still persist in the direction of the past year.
In addition to these major economies of the countries, other countries is to select the "interest rate" or maintain the status quo is a unknown thing, after all, since the Central Bank to hike in Australia, the follow up ' is also increasing, in addition to Norway, Israel, India at the end of October through increases in Bank reserve ratio shown intends to exit signs relaxed monetary policy. East Asia, Korea will be the first in the Asian economies, the interest rate of the message also began to spread.
In fact, that all economies around the world are keeping the same monetary policy orientation is not possible, in the coordination of the global economic recovery, according to the national economy is in fact appropriate for policy adjustment, not only understandable, it is the inevitable choice.
In the current global whether States should rise, major economies have recently expressed its own attitude, as 20 countries finance ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting emphasized that "the higher unemployment remains a major issue."
In the United States, for example, 7 November news revealed that the United States October non-agricultural employment population reduction of 19 million people, pushed up unemployment to 10.2%, affected, weakening market for next year's energy consumption will play the rise in crude oil prices expected to fall. While the United States Department of energy announced on 4 November also indicates that the data, as of October 30 fuel demand around the United States over the same period last year dropped 4.5%. Therefore, the United States choose to maintain the original low interest rate level is its own inevitable choice.
For China, although this year GDP "guarantee" has no suspense, but the foundation of economic recovery and not firm and rely more on a lot of investment, while CPI remains low, despite the future inflationary pressures, but in the last couple of months still to stimulate and strengthen the economy.
Of course, a long loose monetary policy cycle has its negative effects that will give market excess liquidity, future global inflation pressure and, in the short term to push higher commodity prices, thus in effect on the global economic recovery.
It can be expected, although the global interest in the short term due to temporarily receded, the major economies of the countries agreed to maintain the current low interest rate level in order to continue to stimulate the economy to recover, but to be sure, this kind of unity in the near future will be based on global and national economic recovery was broken in varying degrees. Anyway, in the next couple of months, people don't have to worry about interest rates too.
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