US-Japan must be vigilant: economic stimulation policy, this is a time of emergency, once you use frequently, not only greatly reduced, may lead to serious complications.
US-Japan Alliance "ACE" moment came. But this "ACE" field is not a military and economic.
Weak economic data, the pace of recovery in the near-standstill, increased market research on the United States economy; whereas at the end of the worries, yen for repeated approximation of 15 years of high point, has seriously hamper the economic recovery in Japan. United States and Japan is experiencing a global financial crisis since the moment of greatest suffering.
To promote national economy stabilises, US-Japan despite the huge debt, as well as large fiscal deficit, in the near future, have implemented a new round of economic stimulus policies with a view to the weak economy fresh "blood".
30 August, the Government of Japan announced a new 9200 billion yen (equivalent to 108.75 billion) economic stimulus plan to curb the Yen's appreciation for Japan domestic investment and negative impact on employment, and to prevent the current deflationary trend. Japan economy Finance Minister Arai Cong said the Government will be in September 10 recently finalized the economic stimulus plan and implemented before the end of September. According to media reports, the outline of the stimulation plan mainly include the establishment of a new Government Commission to discuss the promotion of economic expansion, and through the promotion of early childhood care and healthcare, and other areas of potential growth in the demand for young job-seekers.
On the same day, Japan's Central Bank also commercial bank lending expanded 10 trillion yen (US $ 1160), to 30 trillion yen. Japan's Central Bank on the day of the announcement that the United States and other economies grow increasing uncertainty, the Japan Exchange and stock markets continued instability, economic and price prospects there are downside risks, the Bank therefore decided to take in advance to prevent financial deregulation policies in the financial market turmoil.
Although the Japan Government pronged means to stimulate the economy, but the actual results are disappointing. 31 August, Japan's stock market plunge, the export of class a shares devastated, the Nikkei 225 index of addressee 8824.06 points, fall substantially, near 3.55% 16 months of a new low. Nikkei index August cumulative 7.48% decline. And the stock market fell on the contrary, the exchange rate rose more than Japanese yen, on 31 August of the Asian trading session, the US dollar against the Yen exchange rate fell to 84.3 nearby interval.
Some experts noted that, in order to restrain the yen, the economic stimulation policy alone is not enough, the need for Japan to persuade the United States with suppressing yen. But that didn't happen. Although the United States is Japan's allies, but now it is in panic mode, not only have no time ally, hoping to ally "unlucky" to save your own. Because the dollar remained relatively weak, can boost their exports, which is almost stagnant economic recovery in the United States, is substantially positive.
Thus, in the present situation, Japan's new round of economic stimulation policy, not only very difficult to achieve the economic purpose of the "blood", it will become the "injection". Because the program in addition to the further expansion of government budget deficits and debts, the real role is very limited.
And Japan, with the economic purpose of the "blood transfusion" plans to implement a new round of economic stimulus policies have been in economic "anemia" State of the United States.
30 August, United States President Barack Obama delivered a speech in the White House, said that his economic team is working hard to seek additional measures, both in the short term to promote economic growth and employment, but also in the long-term strengthening of the competitive advantage of the United States economy. According to media reports, these measures may include tax relief, to provide financing to small businesses and promote investment in the renewable energy field.
In addition, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently repeatedly hinted that United States may further monetary stimulus measures. Analysts believe that, back in early August, the fed through to expire agency mortgage-backed securities and corporate debt to investment, has again demonstrated that it is tantamount to restart quantitative easing monetary policy.
There are signs that the United States a new round of economic stimulus policy is turned on. But these incentives can play on the United States economy to "blood transfusion" function, or a great unknown.
The recent United States published a series of data, all outgoing weak signals. United States 7 month personal income growth continues to slow, the only growth 0.2%, far less than the market expected. During the second half of the United States economic growth under repair to 1.6%, shows significant economic loss of the kinetic energy. But this Friday, the United States to release a non-agricultural employment in August, it is generally expected that unemployment will rise again to 9.6% high.
Various data seem to indicate the economy is in recession in the United States. In this regard, some scholars have called on the United States needs a new round of economic stimulus.
United Kingdom "financial times" columnist Clive Crook · raised the Fed still need "printing money". He said that from an economic perspective, the risk balance is strongly inclined to further stimulate the fiscal and monetary policies.
The Nobel economics laureate, Krugman also in favour of the United States Government introduced a new massive economic stimulus plan. In his view, the recent United States Treasury yields in historic low point wandering around, show investors that there is no need for the United States deficit is concerned, the United States Government can continue to spend money.
But opposition also persisted.
Generally, against the new round of economic stimulus policies if you have only a simple continuation of the previous policy, then the effect will be minimal. Economic recovery is critical to the development of the real economy and the expansion of domestic demand, while the past economic stimulation policy at this point seems to be little, otherwise it doesn't suffer the economic "at the end of the second exploration."
In addition, the US dollar in the new round loose monetary policy and the inevitable devaluation of stimulation, the dollar will continue to feast on Yen, euro, USD and other major currency appreciation, although in theory it can stimulate the United States exports, but no recovery in the global market, the United States brought on the dollar
Export growth are unsustainable. On the contrary, once the European market before the United States, it has a huge deficits and debts of United States relative risk, hedge funds is likely to flee, then United States bond market may be terrible avalanche, consequences.Thus, while from the US and Japan's economic situation, the new round of economic stimulus policies is necessary. But you must guard against the United States and Japan: the economic stimulation policy itself is very period of emergency, not long, but once you use frequently, not only greatly reduced, may lead to serious complications.
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