Tuesday, December 14, 2010

G20 exchange rates may face a big problem with no solution of the deadlock in the short term depression.

<P> The exchange rate no solution is likely to fall into the stalemate in the short term, countries turned their attention to correct the trade imbalances, exchange rate and avoid a direct conflict; G20 summit the parties was willing to eventually make a difference. .</ P> <P> 11 月 11 日 to 12, the Group of 20 (G20) summit will be held in Seoul, Korea. .At that time, accounting for 85% of the total world economy, trade 80% and 20 leaders of the two-thirds of the population, will the four major issues - the exchange rate, the global financial safety net, reform of international financial organizations, development discussions. .</ P> <P> This will be the G20 summit two years, the fifth meet. .The G20 was established in 1999 by the developed economies, including the composition of the Group of Eight (G8), the European Union and China, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, including South Korea and Turkey, 11 .important emerging industrial nations. .G20 was originally set up to prevent a repeat of the Asian financial crisis similar to the main event is an annual meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors. .</ P> <P> compared with the previous fourth summit, Seoul is the most prominent feature of the summit, this is the first time by the G8 group of a newly industrialized country other than the host summit. .South Korea spent only 60 years or so to shift from a developing country the 15th largest economy in the world, which is what economists call "developing a model from scratch." .International Monetary Fund (IMF) latest report, South Korean economic growth in 2011 is expected to reach 4.5%, members of the G20 is ranked fourth after China (9.6%), India (8.4%) and Indonesia ( .6.2%). .</ P> <P> host South Korea on the one hand highlight the emerging countries as international political and economic landscape in the increasingly important role to play, on the other hand also shows that, in response to the premise that the global economic crisis, G20 gradually from the center of gravity is .joint actions to strengthen cooperation with emerging economies tilt. .</ P> <P> areas in question, as the focus of the summit, due to short-term exchange rate issue with no solution is likely to fall into the stalemate, countries turned their attention to correct the trade imbalances, exchange rate and avoid a direct conflict. .</ P> <P> 10 23, held in Gyeongju, Korea, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors agreed on the exchange rate issue: to reduce the exchange rate "disorderly fluctuations", "avoid competitive devaluation" and promote the current account .balance. .However, it is worth noting that South Korea presented at the meeting between the two countries to quantify the surplus or deficit target set for the gross domestic product (GDP) of 4%, were Germany, Japan, Brazil and other countries strongly opposed. .The week after the meeting, the U.S. Treasury said it will propose in the G20 summit to assess the current account surplus or deficit is appropriate, "the indicative range" of ways to achieve global economic rebalancing, and denied the proposed 4% before .numerical goals. .White House deputy assistant to the President for National Security Fuluo Man (MikeFroman) statement also said the RMB exchange rate issue, do not expect the Chinese currency, or imbalances in Seoul are completely resolved. .</ P> <P> have commented that this general attitude of the United States showed that the participants from the exchange rate is likely to shift the focus to the trade imbalance. .Difficult in the case of the exchange rate of the dispute, the countries for the protection of its interests, both hope will increase the intensity of currency devaluation to promote exports, to maintain market competitiveness, but also do not want to because of "currency war" and became the target of action may .increasingly invisible. .</ P> <P> In addition, G20 finance ministers meeting of the IMF to determine institutional reform, also known as "tickets and seats" (sharesandchairs) share of problems, with the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, decided to share of IMF and World Bank .transfer to developing countries, 5% and 3%, Seoul is expected to finalize the transfer of G20 will be the target of 6%. .IMF Executive Board in the distribution of seats in the European countries will give up now dominated two of the nine seats, while the major emerging economies as India and Brazil, is expected to receive two seats to share with other Member States to change the current .seats in the status quo. .</ P> <P> it is undeniable that, as the global financial crisis through the most dangerous age, the global coordination of centrifugal tendencies appeared, while the developing countries as a group, but also equally difficult to exemption. .For example, the current round of "currency war" presented by the developing countries "pick head" sign. .For example, the Brazilian Central Bank President Meireleis said a stronger yuan to reach equilibrium for the world economy is absolutely critical. .At the same time, India's central bank governor Suba Rao also said that the yuan is undervalued, is giving other countries, including India burden. .</ P> <P> Therefore, China should draw the summit, making it a pool of developing countries, a major consensus on the occasion, let the parties realize that only the formation of joint efforts of developing countries to achieve maximum benefits. .</ P> <P> starting next year, the original two year's G20 summit will evolve into annual meetings once a year, reduce the frequency and importance are also decreased? .Gyeongju G20 finance ministers from the parties to the exchange rate would eventually reach a certain compromise of view, the parties still willing to do something eventually the summit, rather than reaffirm the principles of the occasion. .</ P>.

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