"Bungy four countries" and the turn down a Portugal!.

<P> A prophecy - "all right even if Greek, it is impossible to calm the market, the focus immediately shifted to the next question the country, the risk is highest in Portugal." International financial institutions of a responsible person before the global debt markets .On the next sovereign bond markets, says a possible focus. .</ P> <P> night Beijing time on March 24, Fitch Ratings lowered the level of the Portuguese sovereign credit rating to "AA-", and rating outlook as negative. .Fitch warned that if Portugal does not improve the financial situation, it could further downgrade. .The news came out, the euro was brutally suppressed, against the U.S. dollar drop, European stocks lower. .This year, the euro has triggered the problem in Greece because of fears in a series of down 5%. .</ P> <P> Ireland from the financial crisis last April the exposure to the debt crisis in December forefront of Greece, Portugal and then boarded the national blacklist today, one wonders how much water the euro zone debt crisis in the end .deep? .</ P> <P> third "domino" fall due to small? .</ P> <P> "relative weakness in the macroeconomic context and structure of large-scale financial crisis occurred in Portugal, have weakened the reliability of the credit." - Head of Fitch's sovereign rating lun Douglas Wick </ P> .Portugal became the third block <P> euro domino fall (after following Ireland and Greece), one of the reasons is that compared to Italy and Spain, Portugal's national debt scale is much smaller and therefore more vulnerable to market speculation .impact. .</ P> <P> last night, Fitch said in a press release, if the Portuguese in 2010 and 2011 the performance of the financial and economic conditions continue to weaken, it could lead to a re-rating downgrades. .The agency disclosed the date of the data showed the budget deficit in 2009 accounted for the Portuguese gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.3%, the ratio is far more than expected last September to 6.5% of Fitch. .</ P> <P> in the economic structure, the salary mechanism Portugal rigid, leading to the coexistence of economic contraction and rising salaries, labor productivity is low. ."The Portuguese government must take a large-scale budgetary measures, to achieve the fiscal deficit in 2013 will be reduced to 3% of GDP target." Fitch believes that if that goal, the Portuguese in 2013 GDP, public debt .ratio will be about 90%, reaching peak levels. .</ P> <P> despite the experience down, but Portugal's debt rating is still investment grade. .</ P> <P> under a "domino" fall will no doubt? .</ P> <P> the so-called crisis, and not only because of large debts, but also because the government's future ability to repay debt has been questioned. .</ P> <P> look at a set of data: in the euro zone in 2009, the proportion of GDP, the fiscal deficit among the best in the country are Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the proportion of the deficit were more than 8%. .Italy, although only 5% of the budget deficit, public debt accounts for 115% of GDP. .</ P> <P> debt crisis triggered by Ireland is the earliest and most hard-line reform measures, the first to receive the preliminary approval of the state investors. .Into 2010, the Irish are relatively few successful issuance of treasury bonds, treasury interest rates have become stable. .The Greek debt exposure of repeated setbacks in the moment, as soon as possible to win the trust of investors is the Greek government must address the primary problem. .</ P> <P> as "PIGS" a member of four nations, "collection of many diseases in a" no doubt that Spain has the edge in danger. .As with Ireland, Spain, the real estate bubble burst, people carrying heavy mortgage almost lost spending power; and Portugal, like Spain, rigid pay system, cross-sectoral, regional centralized complex pay negotiation mechanism so that enterprises have no right to the staff reduction; .As with Italy, Spain, shortage of skilled workers, a large number of temporary workers has become the object of the first to be laid off, nearly 20% unemployment rate called the "wonder of the world." .The Spanish government defend itself in public, the situation did not always bad, for far less awareness of the urgency of reform and the Greek government. .</ P> <P> contrast, Italy is the world's third largest since the bond market, a high degree of liquidity to the situation slightly better. .But the Italian economy is not better than the other southern European neighbors. .Temporary workers has long been delayed in the system allow enterprises to training, shortage of skilled workers, loss of industrial competitiveness, export markets are other European powers to seize. .</ P> <P> the so-called crisis, and not only because of large debts, but also because the government's future ability to repay debt has been questioned. .Some analysts have pointed out: The U.S., Japan, Britain and other countries the proportion of GDP, the fiscal deficit are at 10%, but no sign of crisis. .While Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the reason why euro-zone countries into crisis, "blacklist", it is because of their economic and social problems inherent in the structure of its debt affected investor confidence. .The difficulty of economic restructuring in these countries the extent of the debt crisis of the euro zone will have more depth of water. .</ P> <P> view, the euro area in order to come out of the debt crisis, the fundamental strategy of external assistance is not simply rely on the countries themselves but also intensify the depth of economic and social restructuring, rebuilding industrial competitiveness. .</ P>.