Fall of 6.8 yuan mark who is doing more dollars?.

<P> 6.7980 - 6 22, the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate significantly lower than the 295 basis points the previous session, breaking 6.80 mark for the first time. .</ P> <P> However, the market is not refreshed appreciation of the new record - despite the opening day of dollar-yuan hit a new low of 6.7900, but as of 17:30, but rose to 6.8136 near real-time exchange rate, representing the lowest intraday .point up nearly 236 basis points. .</ P> <P> director who finished lower exchange rate the day the script? .</ P> <P> Perhaps, the market should re-interpret the central bank increased exchange rate flexibility on the stand - not a one-time revaluation of the RMB exchange rate adjustment. .Present, the blind chasing the renminbi arbitrage speculators had to face the embarrassment of Fukui. .</ P> <P> do more persons </ P> <P> 22 days, the central parity of 6.7980 yuan against the U.S. dollar, the RMB spot foreign exchange market, first to a "surprise." .</ P> <P> "This is really surprising the market, are central parity of RMB more significant appreciation of 21 June has been the default rate of 0.43%?" Standard Chartered Bank in the eyes of a foreign exchange dealer, it looks a little weird. .On Saturday, the central bank announced that "further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, strengthen the RMB exchange rate flexibility" also made it clear no one-time revaluation of the RMB exchange rate adjustment. .</ P> <P> However, the market has been caught in a chase at high tide. .</ P> <P> "there is an opening traders and institutional investors quickly bought up the spot exchange rate of RMB yuan contract." The foreign exchange dealer said, "the individual traders to buy up the amount of renminbi forward contracts, more than .required for their normal trade dollar swap lines. They chase short-term RMB, mainly by the U.S. dollar began to fall and made a part of the speculative hedge. "</ P> <P> 6 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC .) published data show that on June 15 ended the week U.S. dollar foreign exchange speculators long position fell to 12.6 billion U.S. dollars a sudden, after a week of 236 million. .June 7, the dollar index fell to 88.71 from the highest point of 86.10 on June 22 line. .</ P> <P> chase those crazy enough to make the territory of the opening spot exchange rate of RMB against U.S. dollar hit an intraday low of 6.7900. </ P> <P> However, they surprise is the strong dollar buying back. .</ P> <P> many foreign exchange traders said the first hour of opening, the territory of the foreign exchange market rumors of a sudden some state-owned banks began to buy large dollar / yuan contract, the amount of up to millions of dollars level, the bid price in the 6.7900-6.7950 .between; those dollars pay for, even behind a large number of bodies quickly turn to join chase USD / CNY spot rate ranks. .</ P> <P> dollar in addition to buying large banks, domestic financial institutions and also the main import traders bullish dollar / yuan promoters, they absorb the dollar dips hedge exchange rate risk position very strong enthusiasm, and sometimes appear up to .million dollar buying, a moment that the RMB exchange rate chase were at a loss. .And this corresponds to, is the U.S. dollar against the RMB real exchange rate began to shoot down, though at 14 o'clock on June 22 exchange rate of U.S. dollar against the yuan climbed to 6.8229 days, a new real-time high, a wave of wave of the RMB exchange rate rebounded, but as of 17:30 .the U.S. dollar against the RMB real exchange rate was at 6.8136 near the intraday low of 6.7900 compared with up nearly 236 basis points. .</ P> <P> "21 spot exchange rate at the reaction indeed over, and the RMB exchange rate rose 300 basis points at once, inevitably lead to excessive rise in dollar buying rate of the reverse arbitrage funds and other counter-attack." .a domestic bank dealer said, "according to the current real exchange rate of RMB against U.S. dollar estimates, June 21 at 6.8130 yuan to investors chasing line, basically in Fukui state." </ P> <P> Bank of advanced macro- .Analysts said Tang Jianwei, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar since the exchange rate reform in 2005 created a new high, mainly central banks to restart the exchange rate formation mechanism reform, let the market feel that further appreciation of the renminbi expected, but should not be short-term RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate sharply. .</ P> <P> NDF market, hedge funds, steering </ P> <P> real exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar within the finished lower, also spread to Hong Kong's renminbi NDF market. .</ P> <P> bank trader said above, in the expectation of RMB appreciation is considered a barometer of NDF opening fell to 6.5970 one-year offer, the three-month NDF quote of 6.7080 record low since July 2008, some .Instead, hedge funds buy up dollar-yuan forward contracts. .In the past, they are the backbone of bullish appreciation of the renminbi. .</ P> <P> lead to the rapid unwinding of these hedge funds, call the RMB NDF contract, it is precisely the source from the domestic dollar large state-owned banks buying rumors. .</ P> <P> "6 22, 1 month / 6 month trend of U.S. dollar against the RMB NDF almost immediately within the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate fluctuations coincide, indicating that hedge funds and other financial institutions in Europe are closely related to observation of the territory .June 21 sector to exchange rate daily or more than 0.4% of the response. "a European head of foreign exchange trading banks, said," I heard a large state-owned banks began to increase domestic dollar buying, hedge funds that short-term RMB exchange rate will be selected .gradual appreciation, we have chosen to open a profit can be secured. "</ P> <P> latest report of Standard Chartered Bank that the corresponding increase in the RMB exchange rate flexibility, and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the U.S. dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to occur RMB NDF .falling trend, 1-year NDF is expected to re-challenge 6.60 level. .</ P> <P> "part of the radical type of hedge funds in the 6.5980-6.6180 range, but also the RMB to buy one-year bearish speculative contracts." The European head of foreign exchange trading banks said, "bullish hedge fund appreciation of the renminbi .magnitude, is still quite cautious. "</ P> <P> However, at 14:00 on the 22nd from the domestic spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose again, or the cause of radical hunters bullish hedge fund RMB enthusiasm. .</ P> <P> research institutions in China Hedge Fund Rui Yan, director of research analysis, including macro-based, event-driven hedge funds and foreign exchange investment type, they call the RMB exchange rate in addition to its own funds of funds, but also from .2-3 times the investment bank's leveraged finance to obtain credit. .</ P> <P> "They are mainly optimistic about the long-term yuan appreciation of space, will be a lot of money to invest in 6 months and 1-year RMB NDF contracts call." Aforementioned European bank, said head of foreign exchange transactions. .</ P> <P> close at 22, NDF market for six months and one year dollar-yuan contract purchase price of 6.7120 and 6.6350, respectively, reported in the former than the previous trading day rose only 40 basis points, the latter .even down 40 basis points. .</ P> <P> However, the RMB exchange rate volatility in two consecutive days, has rapidly expanded the volume of the RMB NDF market. .U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate had remained at around 6.83, the average daily trading volume remained at 3.0 billion -50 billion U.S. dollars, since the central bank on Saturday, an increase of RMB exchange rate flexibility to make two consecutive trading days, NDF daily trading volume is close to 100 billion .dollars. .</ P>.