Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The euro area "deep fans pools" or the "double bottom recession"

Facts have proved that the water of the economy, the sequel someday will float to the surface. 16 countries in the euro area have half the country's public finances is high risk, unsustainable development, it is expected that this year the euro area will be the debt crisis of the clouds. Greece, Spain, Ireland and Iceland were classified as 2010, most likely the debt crisis of the State, the entire euro zone economy may be affected by these countries of debt crisis hit.

Rating agency Moody's has warned that the 2010 on sovereign debt of the issuer concerned, may be fluctuating a year, as Governments began to gradually stop quantitative easing, will be accompanied by a large number of execution risk. Especially with the quantitative easing of slow, long-term interest rates may be higher than expected increase of speed. Once the economic recovery in the volatility of the market gradually restore confidence may hit again. If the problem further upgrade, sovereign debt may be a large number of sell, making some countries lose their solvency.

The eurozone or the "double bottom recession"

Through Greece at the euro area, not out of the crisis in Europe. 27 December last year, the ECB Trichet called on the euro-zone 16 Member States at the latest in 2011 to reduce its budget deficit to stabilize investor confidence in the national budget. Dubai debt crisis, European banks of many countries, followed by Greece being implicated as the second argument of Iceland also spread in the market. Anecdotally, Greece liabilities has up to 3000 euros, is the biggest in the euro area economies Germany liabilities 3 times, the entire euro area credit ratings are worrying.

Since 2008, the euro area economy will fall sharply decline, taxation, social welfare costs soar, Governments to stimulate the economy and the Bank rescue plan invests billions euro, the already fragile government finance. Investors fear that if Governments delisting of timing, Europe may have to go through the "double bottom recession."

October before the systems will not be the interest rate

US dollar stronger, in 2010 EUR? credit rating was reduced, leading to market volatility, lower the value of the euro. Moody's lowered last week on the Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank's credit rating, investors in the debt crisis worries again. While at the same time, the United States consumer confidence and housing prices good data to boost market confidence, the Fed rate hike is expected to rise in advance, to the US dollar from weak to strong support for the euro has repeatedly frustrated, subject to the status of the above factors, economists forecast in October this year, the ECB will have the interest Act.

At present, France and Germany have been out of the crisis, the Germany business confidence index has reached 17 months. However, the euro area economy is also an economic polarization, Ireland still struggling, recently the severest of fiscal measures is the swingeing cuts in wages. In order to respond to possible debt crisis, Greece Prime Minister Papandreou immediately announced a series of measures to reduce the growing budget deficit, to revive the country's economy. But this measure did not receive public support, multiple sectors of the National Union launching 24-hour general strike to protest against the swingeing cuts in government spending and participation in the strike, including teachers, public hospitals, doctors, dock workers and government workers and journalists.

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