The dollar index continued to trend down or turn the depth adjustment?.

<P> From early June to the present, the dollar index has declined for four consecutive weeks, from the highest point of less than 89 to 85 now, the downside seems to outweigh the technical level of adjustment. .What is causing the continued decline in the dollar index? .This trend is a harbinger of the arrival of its inflection point? .</ P> <P> Status </ P> <P> point conversion and the market fell about </ P> <P> as of press time, July 5 about the dollar index was 84.5, compared with the previous day .slightly higher. .However, looking back nearly a month index trend can be found in U.S. dollars, the dollar index has moved from the first week of June 89 high of about falling for adjustment to the current 84 or so. .</ P> <P> dollar index is a comprehensive reflection of the dollar in international foreign exchange market exchange rate of indicators to measure the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies of the degree of exchange rate changes. .It is selected by calculating the dollar and a basket of currencies on the integrated rate of change, to measure the extent of dollar strength. .</ P> <P> market participants believe that the recent dollar index continued to decline and the market's focus is on conversion. .</ P> <P> the one hand, the market for sovereign debt crises in Europe, fears have been greatly eased. .European Central Bank figures released last week, the ECB's 3-month tender bank capital requirements lower than expected demand for funds; At the same time, Spain successfully issued EUR 3.5 billion 5-year bonds; May Producer .Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% the previous month, in line with expectations; while the unemployment rate fell to 10.0%, indicating the job market to stop deterioration. ."Most people would think that the situation may be also true in Europe, and unlikely to deteriorate again." Zhao Qingming of China Construction Bank, said senior researcher. .</ P> <P> and contrast, the United States increased the data recently released as investors worried about U.S. economic prospects. .The United States the world's largest companies announced June 29 the Committee of the U.S. June consumer confidence index fell sharply, ending a three-month rise. .In the first half of the last trading day, the New York Stock Exchange index continued to fall, At the close, the three major indexes closing low this year, a common record, the cumulative decline in six months were about 8%. .</ P> <P> In addition, the July 1 U.S. Labor Department report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week increased the number of 1.3 million, while economists had expected a small decline in the data; July .2, data showed U.S. payrolls in June to reduce the number 125,000, well below the market value of the expected increase of 431,000 and a reduction of 11 million. .The United States again cast a shadow over prospects for economic recovery. .</ P> <P> said Zhao Qingming, the biggest blow to investors than the recent "two rooms" delisting the news. .Hai Tong Securities research report, "two rooms" withdraw from the market and the "two rooms" continued losses inseparable, and the "two rooms" loss against the backdrop of the real estate market downturn. .</ P> <P> "two rooms" the importance of the U.S. economy is very high. .First of all, the "two room" is to support the important U.S. real estate market institutions that guarantee the vast majority of real estate mortgage loans. .Secondly, the "two rooms" run for the U.S. financial system is critical, "two room" issue and guarantee MBS has penetrated into the various participants in global financial markets. .U.S. domestic financial institutions and individuals are "two rooms" the largest holders of the relevant MBS, holding more than 50%, the Fed, the Treasury also holds a large number of "two rooms" related MBS. .</ P> <P> "Although Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from the New York Stock Exchange delisting does not mean that they will be bankrupt, but it dealt a serious blow to the confidence of investors, the dollar is a major negative .. "Zhao Qingming said. .</ P> <P> incentives </ P> <P> funds face or fundamentals? .</ P> <P> Throughout the past two years, the trend of the dollar index, the financial crisis broke out, the dollar index Xianyihouyang, after the way up, in February 2009, 3 months, the dollar index has hit 88 or so .high. .Next, the dollar index has been downward fluctuations in the bilateral, near the end of 2009 the bottom 74 or so, and then kept the upward trend in June this year, reached yet another high point close to the stage 89. .</ P> <P> "to the current 88 from 74, the dollar gained a lot of early gains, technically speaking, really needs to adjust." Zhao Qingming said. .However, he also said that the adjustment of the "depth" big, seems to have "to" flavor. .The current focus is on the market, so the adjustment, whether just a technical adjustment of the trend or the U.S. dollar staged another turning point come? .</ P> <P> the industry, the trend of a currency are many factors, of which there are two factors is particularly critical, one is the capital side, the other is fundamental. .U.S. dollar, when the global economy is very bad, strong demand of investors hedging the dollar sufficient funds will promote its surface upward; and when the global economy a good time, as the "leader" of the U.S. economy .fundamentals of good will to promote its uplink. .And when the global economy is in recovery, "swing" process, the United States tend to perform poorly. .</ P> <P> "from the fundamentals that the U.S. economic recovery is now the quality is still better than Europe, I prefer a strong dollar will remain, but now the magnitude of this correction is indeed great outlook for the dollar does make .the middle of nowhere. "Zhao Qingming said. .</ P> <P> the market "to" the atmosphere is thick Yuyan Yu. .According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) 7 月 2 to data released, the Chicago International Monetary Market (IMM) foreign exchange speculators cut the third straight week in the U.S. last week, long positions. .As of June 29 the week the dollar fell to a net long position at about 95 billion dollars the previous week's net long position of 122 million. .CMCMarkets chief market strategist in London AshrafLaidi point out that the time away from the dollar to go down not far, because the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates will be extended. .</ P> <P> and from the IMF "currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves," the data show that the dollar's status is suffering from some "crisis." .A quarter of the global foreign exchange reserves totaled 8.295 trillion U.S. dollars, which accounts for the first quarter of this year, the dollar share of global foreign exchange reserves from the previous quarter, revised down 62.2% to 61.5%, a minimum of ten years. .The United Nations believes that the dollar has been shown to play a stable store of value can not, do not have the essential elements of a stable reserve currency. .</ P> <P> China, said Tan Yaling, dean of foreign investment in the dollar in the third quarter and first half of October, the depreciation should be based, U.S. dollar index is now 84, is not the end of the next 75 to 76 is the end of may, the U.S. dollar .Index or the downward pressure on demand will be relatively large. .</ P> <P> questions </ P> <P> RMB external pressure be? .</ P> <P> restarted two weeks ago the central bank in exchange reform, the actual financial crisis since the dollar peg system was officially out. .In the statement, the central bank said not a one-time revaluation of the RMB exchange rate adjustment; in the RMB exchange rate management and regulation should pay attention to a gradual manner; keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level "basically stable" is to further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism .the important part. .The second half of the yuan from the stock market, the market has a better understanding of the central bank's intentions, no longer blindly higher side, two-way fluctuation was evident. .</ P> <P> however, can not ignore that the U.S. dollar continued to weaken, causing the objective of the RMB against the U.S. dollar after another record high. .</ P> <P> PBC authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center, July 5, 2010 dollar interbank foreign exchange market, the central parity of RMB exchange rate is 1 U.S. dollar against 6.7733 yuan, once again the importance of breaking the 6.78 mark. .In session 5, the spot market, the RMB against the U.S. dollar 1 U.S. dollar also hit a high of 6.7680 yuan. .</ P> <P> the previous trading day, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced central parity rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar reported 6.7720, sharply higher than the previous trading day 138 basis points, reaching exchange reform since 2005, a new high. .</ P> <P> However, the RMB is still a lot of external pressure to bear. ."The international community on China's central bank welcomed the resumption of natural exchange reform, but the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism of the market ultimately depends on its performance. From this sense, foreign exchange reform to restart itself does not lead to an external pressure of RMB appreciation of the significant .subsided for a long period of time, pressure of RMB appreciation will continue to exist. "CASS Institute of World Economics and Politics, Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Financial Research said. .</ P> <P> this continued pressure, or will bring further inflows of funds. .According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange 5, the latest data from the first quarter of 2010, China's current account, capital and financial account continued to show the "double surplus." .Among them, the current account surplus of 53.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 32%; but the capital and financial account surplus of 64.2 billion U.S. dollars, while last year was 12.8 billion deficit. .</ P> <P> "in the context of the international financial crisis, China's sound economic fundamentals and the exchange differences, interest rate and other price factors to attract foreign capital continued to flow into the underlying causes. Crisis, the first rise to the good of the economy ., capital markets and real estate market, and coupled with the positive interest rate differentials and currency appreciation of the renminbi is expected to factors outside the capital on a strong appeal. continued inflow of foreign funds since, pushing the price of domestic stock and property markets, strengthening of the RMB .the expected appreciation, which in turn further stimulate the inflow of foreign capital, to a certain extent easy to form a continuous inflow of foreign exchange positive feedback mechanism. "Deng Xianhong the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in an interview. .</ P>.