In domestic vacation week, receptor quantification lenient expect the dollar to suppress, go soft trend is still continuing, the dollar index has fallen to 77.1 yesterday, major African-American currency the dollar, the euro dollar Thursday challenge 1.4000 gate dollar, Australian dollar, on the 27-year maximum.
States race to hand the intervention
The devaluation of the dollar has disordered all African-American currency into passive appreciation whirlpool, many countries, through the political forces to respond to local currency appreciation scenario, such as Japan's Central Bank cut interest rates this week announced the 0.1 to 0 ~ 0.1% interval; at the same time the Bank will also create scale of 5 trillion yen of the Fund for the purchase of Japan bonds and other assets to suppress the long-term market interest rates. Japan Central Bank Governors called baichuan Fangming, Japan has decided to take additional measures because Japan loose domestic economic Outlook not expected, if necessary, may exceed 5 trillion yen.
In fact, the sharp depreciation of the dollar of the curtain, the Government of Japan had to interfere through selling Yen Yen, although Japan's interest rate cut and the purchase of assets, but in the US dollar weakening trend of the US dollar against the yen, still further, and this week four Yen again refresh the 15-year high.
Not only is Japan, the interest rate the Federal Reserve has stop Australia, and Korea upgrade Exchange controls, Brazil Ministry of finance, fixed income securities, foreign investment of financial operations tax doubled. Foreign exchange market conditions allow Governments to try to reduce the exchange rate to be competitive, but in the dollar's background, the effect of these movements is very poor. New Zealand Treasury Secretary Wednesday said that the New Zealand Government essentially powerless to prevent further appreciation of the currency of the country, which is on the New Zealand economy relies on exports and tourism pressures.
Brazil's Finance Minister, at the end of September GuidoMantega had language a remarkable, he said that an "international exchange" has burst, States are reducing exchange rate to increase competitiveness. Now it seems that the foreign exchange market tensions are increasing.
Quantitative easing expected Sheng
The market is now even more believe that the Fed will restart the quantitative easing measures. ADP employment report Wednesday, September civil workforce reduction 3.9 million August amended to increase 1.0 million people, analysts had expected September civil employment increase 3.0 million. The above data consolidated the Fed had to do more of the facts, since the job market still struggling.
In addition, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week a once again expressed the Federal Reserve expanded asset purchase intentions of scale. He said that the federal reserve asset purchase program to help reduce borrowing costs, and boost the economy, and expanding asset purchase scale may further alleviate the financial conditions.
Current market expectations, the Fed is the fastest in the November meeting of the "offering" a new round of asset purchase plan to boost the ailing economy.
Since 14 September rumors Goldman's conference call that the MEDLINE Chuhuo will implement further quantitative easing, specific action measures may be further purchase of assets in addition to liquidity, the US dollar because the market's quantitative easing into a discussion of fear. Then investors were focusing on the situation of the economic recovery in the United States to determine whether the United States will take the new asset purchase program.
This week, focusing on non-agricultural employment data
Will be published in the United States on Friday 9 November non-farm employment data is market focus, this may become a catalyst for strengthening market expectations and lead to further volatility in the foreign exchange market. At present, overseas media survey, economists expect non-agricultural employment may increase 7.7 million, United States September unemployment rate from last month's 9.6% rise to 9.7%. Economists believe that the job market flagging limit consumption expenditure, and to influence United States economic recovery.
If the job market situation remains in the doldrums, to stimulate the economy, the Fed's new asset purchase program can quickly meet with investors. But Nobel Laureate Stiglitz says that the Fed quantitative easing of mind is hoping to stimulate economic recovery in the United States, but he believes the United States economy benefited and could lead to global exchange rate problems and risks of asset price bubbles.
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