The recent announcement of the month of May 4, industrial output, industrial capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates and other data, the United States, the EU and other developed economies, real economy recession still further deepening of possible, thus determining the energy and industrial base raw materials base surface is not optimistic.
On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, China's massive stimulating domestic demand stimulus plan in effect appeared gradually stabilised industrial production rebound above-scale industrial enterprises to increase the value of rapid growth, mainly energy and raw materials import industrial base. Although China's demand for primary commodities can be offset by us, the recovery of declining demand required further observation, but the role of the market, significantly boost the macro-economic trends has become an international energy, industrial metal market important "barometer".
The China factor gave a judgment by the market: the world economy once fully recovered, strong China factor plus mature economies recovery needs, taking into account the reduction of the current capital investment leads to lack of future production, petroleum, coal, and other commodity markets are more likely to take a radical adjustment rather gradual adjustment to a new equilibrium. Although whether substantive recovery also uncertain, but the crisis of inflexion, energy and industrial base of raw materials the brunt to face great demand pressures, but commodity forward premium is in line with this judgment.
United States real interest rates are still down space
The subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed lowered interest rates to exceed the previous row, in December 2008 the federal funds rate from 1% to 0 to 0.25% "interval", because the nominal interest rate close to zero, no further reduction in space, further stimulating the economy, monetary policy can only turn "quantitative easing", its essence is to large-scale increase in money supply, promote the market for the general price level is expected to reduce the effect of real interest rates.
The Fed's latest rate resolution decides to maintain 0-0.25% benchmark interest rate unchanged, the current economic conditions may make the continuation of historical low interest rate is reasonable, and maintain the quantitative easing policy remained unchanged, and the size of the original plan to continue to purchase mortgage-backed securities and bonds, combined with the Fed's inflation will remain weak for some time, you can expect of estimated, as the economic slowdown, the shrinkage of the CPI in the short term will remain steady rebound slightly. This may mean that real interest rates have reduced space, but real interest rates go down is the 2008 commodity boom of important stimulating factors.
Commodity futures underscores the value of
From institutional investor's portfolio, in the current economic recession, more preference than commodity futures configuration. Research has shown that commodities futures and stock and bond assets usually negative correlation between the existence. The economic recession commodity futures and stocks and bonds of negative correlation levels significantly higher than the economic boom period, thereby in the investment portfolio is more decentralized risk results. Commodity futures and stocks, bonds, also a large difference is in their economic depression stage published poor macroeconomic data response is far better than stocks and bonds so sensitive, this zoom of the current situation of commodity futures for all types of funds, and other important institutional investor portfolio value.
In addition, in the second half of 2008 subprime mortgage derivatives market collapsed, as the economic crisis deepens, the commodity futures assets for investment portfolio value protrude into hedge funds and other institutional investors now mainstream holdings.
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