Over the past two weeks, the margin control greenhouse gas emissions figures, many countries taking pace than in the past two years at any time, from the United States to Russia, from China to India. It's like a game, hit the end of the time we didn't have shown his cards.
The parties to the negotiations, the EU's earliest bright hand. Early in 2007, the EU proposed for 2020 greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, based on the reduction of 20%, and expressed their willingness to work together with other developed countries will be the mid-term emission reduction targets up to 30%. The EU prides itself in response to climate change "banner bearer". However, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) estimated that the developed countries of science mid-term emission reduction targets should reach 25% to 40%, in order to avoid global warming to dangerous levels. Clearly, the EU's commitment to this goal there are gaps.
United States hands off late. The Obama administration's plan is that by 2020 in 2005 based on emission reduction of 17 per cent, which is equivalent to the 1990 emission reduction on the basis of 4%. This goal difference than the EU, even farther than the Kyoto Protocol to it provided for the first commitment period (2008 to 2012) by 7%. In emission reduction, the Obama administration than the former Government, but also refused to accept legally binding Kyoto Protocol emission reduction force nationally, and insisted on a number of developing countries to participate in mandatory emission reduction. United States is far from the only one outside the Protocol.
The Government of Japan in the second half of this year, the hand is also a shift change. The former Government's medium-term emission reduction target of 8%, while the Hatoyama Government is 25%, it should be said. Unfortunately, it is a prerequisite to all major emitters participate in emission reduction. This precondition is not established because it does not distinguish between developed and developing countries and, contrary to the climate change negotiations follow the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle. To date, Hatoyama on how to achieve the target of 25% is still vague. In addition, he needs to persuade opposed, worried about the effects of emission reduction Japan business economy.
In the climate negotiations, the United States and Japan to belong to the same forces, this power also include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Russia, and other non-EU countries, because the world map on the formation of connections, so the umbrella is called "umbrella group", its hand on the whole similar to basic "entrainment" major emitters participate in absolute emission reduction of prerequisites.
Australia commitments up to 2020 in 2000 based on emission reduction 5% to 25% (the latter number is conditional commitment), but this goal has been to Parliament twice rejected; New Zealand commitments up to 2020, based on 1990 emissions reduction 10% to 20%; Russia commitments up to 2020, based on 1990 emissions reduction 20% to 25% of Canada's commitment to 2020 in 2006 based on emissions reduction 20%, the price of a building on 1990 emissions by 2%.
How do you assess the emission reduction commitment of developed countries? the calculation shows that developed medium-term emission reduction commitment of unconditional is equivalent to the 1990 emission reduction 8% on the basis of, and conditions of the emission reduction commitments only equivalent to 12%. These two figures than the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period for developed countries proposed 5.2% emission reduction requirements do not how much higher, but far less than the IPCC report specified by 25% to 40%. This shows that the climate change commitments, developed countries have enough.
Corresponds with the developed countries were developing countries. In accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol of "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle, developed quantitative emission reduction obligations assumed, but developing countries do not need to assume such obligations. However, some developing countries have all recently announced to take independent action. For example, Brazil Plan 2020 based on the expected emission reductions 36.1% to 38.9%; China's commitment to 2020 units of gross domestic product (GDP) of carbon dioxide emissions than 2005 fall 40% to 45%; India decided by 2020 CO2 per unit GDP than in 2005 decreased by 20% to 25%; Indonesia and strive to 2020 on the basis of the expected emissions by 26%; Korea announced by 2020 in 2005 based on emission reduction 4%; South Africa expressed in 2020-2025 achieve emissions peak. As many environmental organizations have noted, these commitments show that developing countries on climate change of attitude is positive, responsible and encouraging.
Limited to control emissions figures has been a major climate change negotiations focus on the issues, many countries have now shown his cards, how to enable States to reach a compromise, this is the Copenhagen Conference will need to complete the challenge. In addition, funding and technology transfer issues had been sailing, in Copenhagen, the General Assembly also needs to make a breakthrough.
Copenhagen climate change negotiations as soon to be opened, the drama of how to play, how will the outcome, let's wait and see.
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