Cancun conjecture: who to make up for 50 million tons of emission reduction gap?

From November 29 to December 10, from 194 countries and again in Cancun, Mexico to reach limit greenhouse gas emissions, global agreement once again.

As Cancún Conference one of the important files, United Nations Environment Programme 23 November in London, the International Maritime Organization at the headquarters of the publication of a report has revealed the global climate negotiations, the General Assembly of the core issues – how to make up for 50 million tons of CO2 emission reduction gap?

The report pointed out: to ensure that global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the Copenhagen agreement reached between the emission reduction commitments and actual emission reduction needs, there is at least 50 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent of gaps.

Take the lead in preparing the report of the UNEP Chief Scientist Alcamo (JosephAlcamo) told us that if you cannot make up for the emission reduction required emission reduction commitment of the gap between existing, to 2100 global temperature will rise 2.5 ° c and 5 degrees Celsius.

Increased by 2 degrees c for climate is considered will cause polar glacier melt, sea level rise and increased drought and floods and other extreme weather events.

UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director Michael Steiner in Finland's capital Helsinki by video link London Press Conference scene, warning the world have the opportunity to take action to limit temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius within the time window is narrowed. "This is not a choice of luxury can be postponed. "He stressed.

Copenhagen add trillion reduction cost

Last December's Copenhagen climate summit despite unprecedented momentum, results are soft — unable to create a legally binding agreement and by widespread criticism.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) earlier this month in London published its new global energy Outlook report, Copenhagen climate negotiations result set clear criticism, and sorry in Copenhagen failure will cause more global at least pay $ 1 trillion of emission reduction costs.

Moreover, the IEA feared that even States to implement the commitments to date, the global demand for fossil fuels growth trends and the high emission reduction costs, will made to warming of 2 degrees Celsius at target "almost impossible".

Steiner, Copenhagen problem is not technical and financial, which is related to fair trade. "We cannot ask a number of countries continue to assume responsibility, and let other people take the ride. "He said.

Cancún negotiations prospects worrisome

In fact, Cancún has also not been optimistic about the prospects.

EU members want the Cancún Conference must produce more stringent emission reduction program, allowing developing countries also has said. "" EU Chief negotiator maizi (ArturRunge-Metzger) says: "the Cancun Conference to reach an agreement. We hope to pave the way for future negotiations. ”

UNEP report shows that countries to fully implement the Copenhagen agreement-related commitments and will, by 2020 to global emissions reductions to 490 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; but to warming of 2 degrees Celsius at the target, the global need to 2020 CO2 emissions further reduced to 440 million tons.

This 50-million-ton gap how to compensate for, and who, now also unanswerable question.

50 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent of 2005 world all cars, buses and trucks total emissions. Last year, global emissions are estimated at around 480 million tons.

490 million tonnes and it is the most optimistic estimates, if only to fulfil a minimum commitment of States to develop more relevant rule scale loose to 2020 emissions could reach 530 million tons; assumptions in the Copenhagen commitments have not been fulfilled, emissions will be 560 million tons.

"If we do nothing, the temperature will be higher than pre-industrial global average increase of about 7 degrees Celsius. "From the met Office's expert JasonLowe said.

Steiner recommends that if developed countries and developing countries can improve their emission reduction commitments, and on issues such as the dump of methane, biomass and animal faeces of inadequate combustion of carbon black and other "non-CO2 emissions", the above 50 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent of gap can be filled.

In Alcamo, to achieve the emission reduction targets, the key is to tighten the rules. With the environmental policy that both developed and developing countries are enhancing energy efficiency, the future of industrial and commercial institutions have to shift to a low-carbon technologies.

On this occasion, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Figueres (ChristianaFigueres) urged to attend the Cancun Conference, Governments must ensure that the Copenhagen commitments have been made, and to accelerate its efforts to improve emission ambitions, agreed emission reduction scenarios.