Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Aggravated the international situation, "second bottom," is expected to.
<P> The recent economic turmoil in Europe, this weekend market information is revealed in the sway of the international financial markets. .First, Meiguchongcuo, the Dow fell below the million mark; Second, the New York trading on Friday, the euro fell against the dollar, its lowest level in more than four years; three crude oil futures fell 4.2%, hitting a 4-month .the largest decline. .Price volatility is simply the number of three factors: the U.S. factor, such as the U.S. non-farm employment data released a disappointing outlook for the U.S. economic recovery, the latest concerns; European factors, such as Hungary became an economic problem but also the European countries, around .the spread of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis fears; China factor, such as China reported weaker manufacturing data and continued strict control policy. .</ P> <P> year ended 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors said the statement, "The recent turbulence in financial markets reminds us that there is a big risk, the need for international cooperation." Countries must "implement reliable and does not .affect growth strategy to ensure financial stability. "the statement also noted that policies need to be adapted to local conditions. .Europe has raised concerns about the debt crisis, the global economy since the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers after the financial crisis could "double dip." .</ P> <P> few data and news from different angles, revealed the spread of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and the second bottom of the concerns the world economy. .</ P> <P> Recently, we must address the major changes facing the fundamentals - the risk of the global economy has been close to double dip. .The emergence of multiple risk factors, including the slowdown in global economic growth rebound in the euro continued to depreciate in the first quarter real GDP growth weaker than expected, and the introduction of the euro area peripheral countries and additional financial austerity program. .The current world economic problems, the European factor is the heart of the problem, and the United States and China is vital to the two major economies. .</ P> <P> euro crisis is not only Europe. .Greece is only the beginning, the study found the major developed economies, there are signs of excessive debt, and the dollar as a reserve currency and the euro, the government debt level is even more worrying, too much government debt developed countries will slow economic growth. .Moreover, financial markets are very efficient communication device, especially for panic. .Market sentiment can be very quickly into a panic from the cautiously optimistic. .Once the banks, lending institutions and other large investment institutions are in crisis mood, other people found it difficult to borrow money, the economy will be down. .</ P> <P> the U.S. economy continues to recover, but the leading indicators have begun to highs, inventory adjustment and fiscal policy to stimulate the kinetic energy of falling. .Last week the U.S. government said April's core consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to its lowest level in 44 years. .Apparent consumption of time may be to start after the third quarter. .However, considering the impact of the debt crisis in Europe, the Fed does not raise interest rates throughout the year to increase the probability. .</ P> <P> China's position in the global economy in the end is or Egg? .Can only say that it is blessing. .Chinese data show the role of regulatory policies to gradually appear. .Regardless of the overall price level or the relative growth rate of output and import and export and other indicators, China's economy is showing signs of overheating, but the leading indicators and monetary growth have shown that the economic growth rate down is a foregone conclusion. .The impact of the euro zone debt crisis needs assessment, the European market volatility may make overseas business affected the appreciation of the RMB against the euro, making the loss of our export advantage. .Recent weak manufacturing data released by the bank liquidity is also reversed trend. .In this case, the pace of China's macro-control has become an important impact on international market sentiment indicators. .China's current tightening cycle exacerbated by negative investor concerns, has become an important international market pressures. .</ P> <P> now the domestic market, the virtual price level rose, the manufacturing sector grew weak, investment in fixed assets is too large, too high proportion of government investment, private economy is sluggish, the economy is not so simple ."overheating", but "Enthusiasm," the risk of second bottom urgent need of policy attention. .In this context, regulation should focus on the structure of the Chinese economy Xuhuoshangsheng the same time, the strength is not restored. .Overheating of the economy should not be the only target, if not strengthen the flexible macro-control policies are still blindly immersed in the prevention and control if the inertia of being overheated, blindly staring crunch, "excessive withdrawal" may make the Chinese economy could suffer. .</ P>.
Labels:
[:]
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment