Saturday, January 1, 2011

The imminent opening of the Group of 20 summit of major economies, the opportunities and challenges facing.

<P> 26, that was Saturday, leaders of the Group of 20 meeting will be opened in the Canadian city of Toronto. .</ P> <P> on the U.S. economic situation, the parties tend to compare view is consistent with sustained economic recovery, but the pace is slow. .National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Committee is responsible for the authority of the definition of a recession. .The committee said in April this year, although many indicators are turned up, but based on existing data to determine the end date of the recession is premature. .The committee is to determine the authority of recession, it will need to fully determine the announced end of the recession, more conservative views. .</ P> <P> and the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as the representative of the view is more optimistic. .This is not difficult to understand, Bernanke as Fed chairman, you need to command the U.S. economy, while also managing the development of market expectations the U.S. economy, his comments need to be more optimistic, to maintain market confidence in the U.S. economy. .Bernanke pointed out recently that the U.S. firm a solid foundation for economic recovery, the economy has undergone "significant change", recent data show that the economic recovery dependence on government spending may be gradually reduced over time, growth in private demand will take over as economic stimulus .The main driving force for economic growth, but he also warned that the employment situation to return to pre-recession state may take years. .The Fed's latest "national economic situation report", commonly called the "Beige Book" Bernanke supported this view. .Beige Book said, even if concerns about the debt crisis in Europe dampened confidence in the U.S. last month, economic activity remained enhanced, since the last report, the Fed's 12 regional banks in which economic activity continued to improve, although described in many parts of the growth rate of "moderate .. " .</ P> <P> Obama administration employment is the main economic challenges faced. .U.S. Labor Department released the latest data show that in May the nation's unemployment rate remained at 9.7% of the high U.S. unemployment data is also the 13th consecutive month above the horizon at 9%. .I interviewed some of the economists said that the current recovery is a "remarkable recovery with no job growth." .Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that if you want between 2008 and 2009, nearly 8.5 million unemployed back to work will probably take a long time, given the difficult U.S. job market, the Fed does not rush to raise interest rates. .Also, Bernanke also noted that the weak residential real estate and commercial real estate market and state budget cuts will significantly restrict one of the factors the U.S. economic recovery. .As one of the pillars of retail in the U.S. economy, sluggish retail sales data shows that the U.S. economic recovery is still uncertain. .Some economists believe that the U.S. economy has yet to make investors worry that the economy can continue to grow, which is a double-dip recession risks remain, the focus of the market out of recession in economic activity can relay in this artificial government stimulus .pulled the driver of economic growth, so as to realize sustained economic growth. .</ P> <P> in the Group of 20 summit, Russia's economy will also be of concern, the second half of 2009, the Russian government to reverse the economic downturn since the financial crisis situation. .The data show that, from the end of last year to now, the Russian economy has begun to recover. .In early 2010, the Russian economy to achieve growth. .International rating agency Standard & Poor's released a report last month on the predicted growth in the Russian economy in 2010 will reach 4.5%, higher than the agency forecast last September the 2% target. .</ P> <P> since February of last year, the ruble has appreciated against the dollar by 20%, greatly reducing the problem of the Russian banking system asset quality pressures facing. .Russia is steadily increasing foreign exchange reserves of gold, about 460 billion U.S. dollars, almost the same level as the end of 2008. .Russian government deficit is now basically under control conditions. .In addition, inflation is nearly 20 years, Russia's most serious problems. .Started to slow down the rate of inflation last year, about 9%. .This year that number continues to decline, currently stands at 6%, which is the post-Soviet Russian history since the lowest rate of inflation. .</ P> <P> However, industry analysts also pointed out that the Russian economy, the ability to continue stable growth also depends on many factors, such as the national leadership of the decisions and actions, the development trend of domestic demand, the development of world economy .movements, changes in commodity prices of raw materials and so on. .In addition, the Russian ruble exchange rate movements is also important that Russia will be a process of economic recovery imbalance, which causes the existence of the Russian banking system, new risks, the credit growth rate of at least the next two years will not be too high. .</ P> <P> is worth mentioning that, this month in St. Petersburg, Russia 17-19 at the International Economic Forum, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that the financial crisis yet in the context of the past, the world economy, finance .institutions are changing. .Russia is facing challenges and opportunities, and its mission is to enhance the flexibility and adaptability of the economy and integrate into these changes, the work towards a better direction. .</ P> <P> the EU's economic situation is also the focus of attention can be said that the current EU-27 economy is in a process of gradual recovery. .</ P> <P> 2010/2011 published by the European Union last month, the annual spring economic forecast report, the EU has experienced the most severe history of economic recession, the EU economy in 2010 will grow by 1% growth in 2011 .1,75%. .The first quarter of this year, EU countries to achieve 0.2% economic growth in the EU-27 countries have achieved economic growth, only Greece, Cyprus, Estonia, and several other small countries still negative economic growth. .These data are generally better than the EU in the economic forecast released last autumn report. .</ P> <P> other data also support the views of the EU economy is improving. .For example: the EU's labor market began to appear signs of improvement. .Eurostat has just released last week, the employment situation report showed the unemployment rate in EU countries have stopped rising, the Netherlands, Italy and the Nordic countries the unemployment rate has begun to decline. .Another example: the past week, the euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar continuously, which also shows the market and investors in euro-zone economy is no longer bearish. .</ P> <P> due to the eradication of serious deficit and public debt problems, the EU countries have introduced austerity measures to slash the deficit, that is, started the so-called "exit strategy", which should be regarded as the largest European economy is currently facing .One of the risks. .We know that tight policy and economic growth is a contradiction. .On the one hand, to address the employment and other social issues, the EU needs to achieve sustained economic growth; the other hand, to achieve fiscal sustainability, the EU must also greatly reduce the deficit. .The deficit reduction, and will definitely harm the economic growth. .</ P> <P> the EU economy will double dip? .EU member states can withstand the pressure from the people at home, in ensuring economic growth achieved under the premise of the goal to reduce the deficit? .EU leaders are most worried about these issues. .A few days ago, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed concern on this. .Latest data show that the EU countries is rising inflation rate, close to the ECB's 2% of the cordon. .At the same time, EU consumption remains weak, the sustainability of economic recovery will be tested. .</ P> <P> 17 this month, meeting at the EU Xia Jifeng, EU leaders finally approved the EU's economic development strategy over the next decade. .According to this strategy, the next decade, the core objective of the EU economy is to achieve "sustainable growth", and to form a "low-carbon", "high employment-based" and "benefit all" new model of economic growth. .In accordance with the European Central Bank President Trichet, this goal can be achieved, the key lies in strict compliance with the EU governments can co-financial indicators of the. .</ P> <P> Japan is Asia's major developed economies, can be said that the Japanese economy as the current EU countries have also shown a trend for the better. .21, the Japanese government said it planned to 2010, real GDP (Excluding the proceeds of price changes, GDP) growth is expected from 2009, 1.4% to 2.6%. .And plans to raise 22 plan proposed by the cabinet that contains the government estimates. .It is reported that if Japan GDP2.6% growth in 2010 can be achieved, it will be 3 years since the first time since 2007, is growth. .Japan's economic problems facing the new government to be the biggest challenge, the performance of the Japanese economy for the new regime overwhelmed by the recovery provides a good start. .</ P> <P> high national debt of Japan, has always been controversial in the international community. .Bank of Japan recently announced that, based on assessed market value of bonds and other securities, the 2009 central and local governments in Japan for the first time the total debt of more than 1 million billion yen (about 75 trillion yuan), an increase of 4.8 over the previous year .%, the Bank of Japan increased the debt attributed to the implementation of economic stimulus policies, due to a large issuance of government bonds. .Enough to bankrupt the face of the country's high debt situation, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan in the first news conference after taking office, said, will the economic, financial and social security as a whole, to achieve the further improvement and strengthening, he .also stressed the new government to restore fiscal health is a "major issue" calling for this immediate cross-party co-operation and discussion. .</ P> <P> order to ensure the new government's financial resources, to achieve their proposed goal of financial health protection, Naoto Kan at braving the risk of offending many voters in preparation for the current consumption tax rate from 5% to 10%, .A position is considered to be strongly opposed to tax increases in the dove with the piedmont area of economic policy regime in the biggest difference, but also reflects the new regime to ensure the normal operation of the economy's immediate mood and the heavy debt burden facing. .</ P> <P> the latest, according to Japanese media reports, Naoto Kan, 21, and the Bank of Japan Masaaki Shirakawa, president held talks. .As the imminent opening of the Group of 20 summit, both sides of the functioning of the domestic economy and recent financial domestic and international economic situation and exchanged views on the hope that governments and central banks work together to work together out of the plight of deflation and to stimulate the economy, the government will introduce policies and the recent .the financial operations of the new strategy in the consultation. .</ P> <P> as emerging economies, India's economic development has been of concern for the people of the world. .In 2008, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, India's economic growth has slowed, but maintained a relatively rapid overall growth. .The last financial year just past, the Indian GDP growth rate reached 7.4%, the Indian government's current fiscal year to develop their own economic growth rate of 8.5% and India's hope in the next 10 years, making China the country's economic growth rate in the .had reached a level of 10 years, which is close to double-digit growth. .The international financial crisis, India's performance, indicating that the Indian economy has strong impact resistance. .</ P> <P> However, India's economy also faces some challenges. .First is the fiscal deficit remains high. .Led to high fiscal deficit in India is an important reason for this is the government for agriculture, food and some large financial subsidies to key commodities. .This policy led to high cost and low efficiency of the serious economic consequences, the government finances overwhelmed. .Followed by a serious shortage of infrastructure, economic development plays a significant restraining effect. .India's backward infrastructure, not only in transportation, electricity and other hardware, in fact, lack of infrastructure in India but also in social service systems have lagged behind. .For example, a variety of public services in India are required to obtain long lines, because the Government can not provide sufficient manpower, improve efficiency, the level of service to make a serious decline in the formation of both the obstacles to economic development, but also affected investor confidence. .</ P> <P> response to the crisis, the Indian government implemented a program of unprecedented economic stimulus, to take the tax cuts, interest rate cuts and liquidity to the banking system into a large number of funds. .However, with the implementation of fiscal policy stimulus, the phenomenon of inflation in India is very serious, food price increases reached double digits for several quarters. .At the same time the stock market fell sharply as the dollar's sharp depreciation in the rupee, coupled with India's current foreign trade deficit is still in the whole situation, if the withdrawal of foreign investment to the entire Indian economy will have serious impact. .</ P> <P> in Latin America in Argentina can be said that economic engine. .On the economy, recently appeared in Argentina, "National Journal" a report into the Argentine's lips. .Reported that the momentum of economic recovery in Argentina is now clear that rapid growth of industrial production, people's consumption capacity has also been picked up, has recovered to pre-crisis levels, so experts predict that Argentina will be a strong year of economic recovery, economic growth will reach 5 .%. .However, the people of Argentina do not think so. .People this view is made in China more expensive, we can not afford that began to creep out of the domestic products. .Why more expensive? .We attribute the causes of inflation and government intervention are to blame. .</ P> <P> people of Argentina are now the most intuitive on the current understanding of the domestic economy is the price increases. .What are expensive. .Especially the main character on the table in Argentina - beef. .Now Argentina is to seek "the meat shortage", first because of the drought; second, because the government's improper interference, led to sharp rise in beef prices, directly led to inflation. .The Argentine government in April announced that to protect the domestic supply, Argentina suspended beef exports. .Argentine beef is the major export items, the government banned the export and agricultural groups intensified the conflict between the farmers threatened to strike, not to the market supply of beef, Argentina suffered instrument allows consumers love to eat beef, .future, less meat, prices are more expensive. .Meat prices have now risen more than doubled last year, the number will rise next did not know. .Some economists said that the shortage of beef in Argentina is difficult to change in a short time, more importantly, which exposed a problem that deserves attention. .Agriculture and animal husbandry are the pillar industries of Argentina, the Government should develop its long-term planning and policy guidance. .</ P> <P> there are comments that the Argentine government to protect their own industries, intervention price, the workers because of the recent rising cost of living and frequently ask for a raise, inflation also makes the product costs, which are made in China's drive .prices rise further. .The industry believes that the long run, Argentina's economy toward high-cost roads, progressive loss of competitiveness, so also not conducive to economic development. .It appears that the Argentine economy can not be predicted, as reported a strong and stable growth, but also need the government and domestic sides had got together. .</ P>.

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