China's foreign exchange Bureau Thursday (8 July) published in the official website of the foreign exchange management policy hot questions and answers (4) ", pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be the European debt crisis worries aggravated suppression.
The State that is protected by domestic and international factors, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken, the US dollar rebound, arbitrage trading momentum eased. On the one hand, the market's fears about the debt crisis in Europe, the international foreign exchange market continued unrest, funds to buy back us assets hedge the US dollar index was up to March 2009 high of, inside and outside the forward market appreciation of the renminbi is expected to drop sharply. On the other hand, as investors hedge the interest rate increase, the US dollar sentiment continues to rise. 5 month 6-month period in the international market US dollar LIBOR relatively late April 0.22 percentage increase. At the same time, a large number of domestic banks in early holdings of foreign assets, continue to sell overseas assets in foreign currency loans granted in the limited space, the Bank will enter the foreign exchange liquidity.
Safe against exchange rate that will be in accordance with the foreign exchange market exchange rate fluctuation, the RMB float for dynamic management and tuning, keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level of stability.
It is calculated, since the Central Bank on June 19, announced that further reform of the Renminbi exchange rate mechanism and reinforced elastic RMB, Renminbi against the US dollar since 20 June two weeks have gone 0.7%. Central Bank on Thursday also announced that the monetary policy Committee for the 2010 meeting announcement for the second quarter. Notice that will further Renminbi exchange rate regime, adhere to market-based, reference to a basket of currencies.
In the FAQ closely noted that 4 months by 2010, China's foreign exchange funds inflow of overall continued the second quarter of 2009, the recovery trend, 4 month settlement and surplus at the end of the scale is the 2008 focus on the international financial crisis since the outbreak of the highest value. But entering since may, the foreign currency inflow pressure eased. 5 month Bank Valet settlement and surplus relatively drastic decline in April, with 56% of the purchase Link Valet drop 11%, valet, and exchange rings than growth of 13%.
But the State also indicated, promote the international balance of task remains difficult. On the one hand, the US dollar cross-border trading, arbitrage in foreign currency are spreads continue to exist, there is a certain appreciation of RMB expected conditions, business and personal assets and liabilities denominated in domestic currency, with further expansion of trends, prevention of abnormal pressure of cross-border capital flows. On the other hand, if the US dollar interest rates and exchange rates continued strong may be caused by international capital flows; the international financial crisis lead to toxic financial assets have not been completely eliminated, some European countries of sovereign debt crises also in governance, did not rule out the possibility that some incident caused market confidence in turmoil and the changes in cross-border capital is raised.
Taken was pointed out that the balance of trade surplus in 2010 will still be a large scale, but the international balance of payments situation is expected to continue to improve, the trade surplus expanded trend will be eased, the current account surplus and a proportion of GDP might decline further. In the first quarter of 2010, China's balance of payments current account, capital and financial projects continue to render the "double surplus." Current account surplus declines 536 billion, an increase of 32%. Capital and financial projects surpluses 642 million, compared to $ 128 billion deficit. International reserve assets increased by $ 960. Among them, the foreign currency reserve assets net increase of 959 million (not including exchange rate, price and other non-transaction value changes).
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