Climate Conference yesterday Cancún in Mexico. Although many people expected that the meeting is difficult to find in the short term, but the consensus of climate warming and a series of political and economic challenges and the future of China around the turn of the topic. Current political climate in China, the biggest challenge is the "big" challenges, responsibilities, rights and interests between the triangle problems.
First of all, China has grown into the global climate in the politics of the "big". From the economic scale, China's GDP-Japan become second in the world is a foregone conclusion; the total amount of carbon emissions from the point of view, as China's rapid economic development and urbanization, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions growth, China's carbon emissions jumped first in the world, and has continued to increase. In General, the environment and climate that international public issues is always "eat the rich", and small and medium-sized countries premium strategy has always been "free riding".
Secondly, from the rise of China's strategic environmental point of view, the political climate has increased the difficulty of China's rise and pressure. If climate politics continue to fermentation, perhaps the future of China's rise of cast shadows. In fact, climate politics on China's rise, came too late, especially in national development bottlenecks at a crucial time.
Third, China's current lack of experience of coping with climate politics, even psychological nor do a long-term response. This mainly reflected the strategic positioning of uncertain, lines, ambiguous and strategic policy not uniform. China in the climate negotiations, insisted that he was developing countries there are no errors, but it is difficult to see themselves as normal in developing countries; China knows to continue to adhere to the "Kyoto line" is not very realistic, but it did not propose its own alternative, making maintenance objectives of developing countries ' internal unity elusive; China want to play a role in the climate negotiations, but underestimated the sinister climate political environment. In short, climate politics is on China's development and serious challenges for China's rise, and stresses the political climate politics, is the current China must face a challenge.
In the climate politics as a trend and argument, China's biggest desires nothing more than three, the first is to continue to keep GDP growth, which is China's best interests; the second is broadly defined, including the country's economic autonomy, the rights of international mechanisms and voice; the third is to limit global warming to assume the responsibility of the corresponding commitments and emission reduction, including the implementation of the independent emission reduction and more stringent and transparent emission reduction. However, these three goals on China is a no-compromise triangle puzzle, China can only take second and their institutions.
The first case: If China adhere to the sovereign rights of economic autonomy, the pursuit of their own best interests, that is to keep GDP growth, China would be difficult to meet emission reduction commitments, emission reduction could not be done; the second scenario: If the Chinese want to keep the high GDP growth interests of responsibility, outright reduction so China can only select independent emission reduction at this stage, but the result will inevitably cause some dissatisfaction with the Chinese in the international climate regime's position and influence will be lost; the third scenario: If the Chinese want done emission reduction obligations (transparent emission reduction), and also in the international climate mechanisms for influence, even received the right to speak, the Chinese leadership's GDP growth will be limited.
Current China insisted that the second case, a choice in line with the overall interests of contemporary China, but its adverse effects are very prominent, is to enable China to bear greater international pressure. However, as the "big" of China, the key is to see the way forward, in addition to the immediate economic interests, but also focus on the long-term goal of peaceful rise. In fact, the Chinese in the global climate problem actively as China's international influence and improve the image of the country, has a great practical significance. Therefore, in the long run, China should gradually to a third of the programmes.
Climate politics in a long time tests China's political wisdom and diplomatic skills. Looking to the future, China must realize that if climate politics into similar globalization that big trends that will reshape the global political and economic system, then China will reexamine, adjust its response strategies. In fact, China is a around the low carbon economy and the new energy revolution wave of heated discussion. If China would like to seize the opportunities of globalization, to meet the challenges of the new energy revolution, the climate of political pressure and challenges will be to win the next round of world economic control and dominance of strong momentum.
(The author is the Beijing Normal University political science professor with the Institute of international relations. ）
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