Sunday, December 12, 2010
Spain has become the new euro area risks.
<P> With the euro area, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plans to provide assistance to Greece, the news came out, the Greek debt crisis seems to have mild signs. .Greek government has said that plans to reform the tax and pension system, reduce the fiscal deficit, promote economic recovery in Greece. .However, the euro zone must not follow up on the development of sovereign debt crisis lightly. .</ P> <P> If economies of scale in the euro area accounted for only 2% of the Greek-made only a little trouble, then more than five times the total economy of Greece's fourth largest economy in the euro area - Spain .the euro area is likely to threaten the safety of the future of the "heavy time bomb." .Zhu Min, deputy central bank governor has warned that the debt crisis of the Greek tip of the iceberg, and now the euro zone is clearly the main cause for concern Spain. .United States, "The Wall Street Journal" is more publication entitled "The euro's next battleground: Spain," the article that sparked the crisis Greece upset the entire euro zone, while Spain is likely to decide the fate of the euro. .</ P> <P> Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009 contracted by 3.6%, will continue to shrink this year, the entire country into 50 years of the most serious economic recession. .The economy there has been deep-rooted the problem is irrational industrial structure, promote economic development by the real estate before the way is not sustainable; The other is the relatively rigid employment system. .Real estate bubble burst led to high unemployment, bad debts increase and is becoming a major challenge facing the Spanish economy. .</ P> <P> Spanish companies as a high level of debt, rapid credit growth and higher financial institutions exposure to the real estate business, the Spanish financial system is likely to be during the recession in the country to withstand the high .credit losses. .It is predicted that Spain's financial system need to add 300-350 million euros in new capital in order to compensate for the increasing size of bad loans. .</ P> <P> now, because they do not have the flexibility to adjust its capital structure and the difficulty of escape from the real estate bubble in Spain savings banks in areas not listed in general into a dilemma. .Although the Spanish government strongly hope that some large domestic banks mergers and acquisitions of regional savings bank shot, but little progress because so many factors. .Once there the collapse of the banking industry, the market is bound to worry the Spanish government will be forced to bail, which can affect the price of bonds in Spain and subsequent release. .Real estate crisis is easing, the bank could lower rates of non-performing loans and banking M & A Will there be new progress in the Spanish market observers have become key indicators of the financial system. .</ P> <P> At the same time, Spain is not optimistic about the job market. .Latest data show that as of March this year, the total number of unemployment in Spain has reached 416.7 million, since 1996, the highest level on record. .In 2009, the employment rate was only 64% of Spain than the EU average employment rate of 5 percentage points lower. .Drag on the labor market to bring enormous financial pressure the Spanish government. .In 2009, the Spanish public deficit-GDP ratio reached 11.4%, by 2013 the proportion decreased to 3% of the EU "pass line" level is not easy. .Although the Spanish government recently passed the economic crisis and the 26 measures to promote employment, and to predict the stimulus is expected to create over 350,000 jobs, but the specific effects of these measures remains to be seen. .</ P> <P> as the euro area member states, Spain, the lack of reliable means of economic salvation, not only can not make the currency devaluation, we can not cut interest rates to stimulate borrowing or printing money, can only depend on to sell more bonds .raise funds. .As the first quarter of this year's big bond issues in Europe, Spain, the issue of treasury bonds in the quarter compared with last year's third quarter has been the record high of 13.3 billion U.S. dollars has expanded by 20%. .Greece had to worry about the market as well as other members of weaker euro zone's ability to repay its huge debts, and now these concerns have been transferred to Spain, who won the Spanish national debt difficult to favor the buyer has become a reality. .</ P> <P> alarm has not been fully discharged the debt of Greece, Spain and the debt crisis of the risks increase, the euro area the real test yet to come. .</ P>.
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