Dispute over the exchange rate indicates that the world economy will be big changes.

<P> 7th of this month, the IMF's Strauss-Kahn warned that if some countries tried to use the exchange rate tools to address its problems, this is risky because the currency could trigger war. .</ P> <P> Kahn's argument was very kind. .From the situation in recent months, the currency in some places, in fact, the war broke out. .By the U.S. dollar continued to depreciate against major currencies due to exchange rate of the dispute, but the problem of representation, and its essence is that the overall pattern of the world economy is undergoing fundamental change. .</ P> <P> According to statistics, this year, all major economies, currencies against the U.S. dollar continued to rise. .If the yen against the dollar in the past two months has been repeatedly hit a new high in 15 years, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar in the past month has been accumulated by 8.3%. .The euro against the dollar in the past week has increased by 2.3%. .</ P> <P> In addition, a considerable part of the country or region emerging economies currencies in the past few months the rapid rise against the dollar. .Especially those highly dependent on foreign demand, export-oriented economy, its currency's rapid appreciation against the U.S. dollar has been a serious threat to the local export enterprises, affecting the local economy. .</ P> <P> this end, the economy is smoking on the currency of this war has shown a high degree of apprehension. .Late last month, Brazilian Finance Minister said, we are in a currency war. .General devaluation of national currencies, which poses a threat to us. .Brazil will take decisive action to prevent excessive appreciation of their currencies. .</ P> <P> Prior to this, Japan is suddenly in the Sept. 15 implementation of the intervention in the foreign exchange market intervention operations. .Subsequently, other countries and economies have also pledged to intervene in the market to intervene. .For example, South Korea expressed its readiness to intervene when necessary, India and Thailand issued a similar warning to take appropriate action. .</ P> <P> dispute in this exchange rate, the target than the largest two countries. .Although China in this global financial crisis, very quickly adopted special measures to stimulate their economies, and for the world economy has created conditions for the recovery of precious, but the United States does not appreciate, is still forced to take on the attitude of China's exchange rate. .</ P> <P> the United States and some countries with developed economies, why do it? .If we look only to the two countries to look, just staring at the RMB exchange rate, may be too narrow field of vision is not conducive to see the heart of the problem. .If we developed economies, the current situation can have a little more understanding, I am afraid to think different. .</ P> <P> First, the 2008 outbreak of the international financial crisis in the U.S. fire. .Over the years the U.S. government and residents caused by excessive deficit spending and trade deficits, has long been the U.S. economy can not get into a quagmire. .Although the outbreak of the financial crisis was brewing at home the consequences of financial speculation, but it is a reflection of U.S. economic structural imbalances, long-term imbalance is a reflection of the world economy. .</ P> <P> Now, the United States to get rid of "twin deficits" of the entanglement, the most good way is to let the dollar fall. .This will allow other countries to bear the costs of economic adjustment, the United States, resulting in U.S. dollar assets in other countries has shrunk dramatically, exports have slowed, competitiveness weakened rapidly, while the United States to influence by playing in major U.S. markets, and reap speculative gains, while expanding the U.S. .exports in order to fix loopholes in the twin deficits. .</ P> <P> history, the U.S. has done so, and now the United States is doing. .Now, the United States not only put pressure on the yuan, against other major currencies have depreciated to the offensive. .Among them, especially export-known for emerging economies to take a depreciation of the strategy. .Why? .Because the administration to create jobs, exports doubled in the implementation plan, implementation of the "re-industrialization", not how the line with the depreciation of the dollar? .</ P> <P> look at the situation in other developed economies, particularly in developed economies in Western Europe and the Nordic conditions. .Recently, high-welfare states are experiencing these problems there are two, one is a sovereign debt problem, the other is the extension of employment. .These two issues is the recent spread north-western Europe countries, as well as mass protests continued, the strike continued. .Why do some places will burst out of these two problems? .</ P> <P> the one hand, there are similarities between these countries and the United States, the use of financial leverage over the government and people over-spending, resulting in debt; the other hand, in the economic structure and industrial structure problems exist on the hollow ., also makes these high-welfare state is very fragile economic base; coupled with social welfare standards, requiring huge financial support, if the economy is a problem, it is difficult to maintain this standard. .</ P> <P> so, whether it is in the U.S. and some developed countries in northwest Europe, are now facing a triple challenge: how to compress expenditure, the second is how to create jobs and the third is how to increase exports. .In the current round of severe financial crisis has not subsided when taken inappropriately tight fiscal policy, increasing employment, on the economic recovery is very bad. .In this case, can choose only the increase in exports. .</ P> <P> Now, when developed economies began to turn around tip, through currency depreciation to improve the export competitiveness of their products, began to reshape the country's manufacturing industry, increase exports and earn foreign exchange earnings, when the world .trade patterns are being re-shuffling of the time, does it mean? .Especially those in East Asia has long been dependent on exports to maintain economic growth, economies, does that mean? .</ P> <P> conclusion is obvious that the original external demand environment has changed, the external power has decreased, even disappeared. .The resulting is, the entire world production structure, employment structure, product structure, trade structure, economic structure of the big changes. .It is now we are considering a variety of macro and micro issues, can not avoid the new situation. .</ P>.