Wednesday, January 18, 2012
U.S. desire "overshoot" to stimulate the economy in Asia, "defense" hot money in Europe and America.
<P> "High unemployment rate in the United States, can not see the downward trend in the short term, and the economy can not rely on market forces to obtain a strong recovery in its own case, we must take further quantitative easing 'overshoot' mode to stimulate the economy." < ./ P> <P> "in the current United States and other Western countries have generally adopted a loose monetary policy of the Asian countries to curb hot money inflow of capital controls have on the one hand, on the other hand to maintain the stability of exchange rates and interest rates." </ P> < .P> local time on October 12, the Fed decided to continue the Federal Open interest rates to historic lows, the same time, policy makers also emphatic: "In the near future to introduce further quantitative easing monetary policy is appropriate." Clearly, the Fed this .a move will undoubtedly exacerbate the trend of global financial tide in Asia. .For such a situation, Japan, Korea, Thailand and other Asian governments have large inflows of hot money shot blocking, inhibiting their currencies appreciate. .</ P> <P> the direction of the United States has been set loose again </ P> <P> the recent spate of statements from the Fed point of view, the second round of quantitative easing measures taken by the tendency has been very obvious. .Minutes of the meeting released Tuesday also showed that if the Fed to take further quantitative easing measures implemented through two means, an increase of long-term bonds to buy down the cost of borrowing by the way, and to promote public expectations of future inflation will rise way to stimulate current spending .. .</ P> <P> Institute of World Economy, Fudan University in China and China to accept the "International Finance News" interview, said: "The high unemployment rate in the United States, can not see the downward trend in the short term, and the market economy can not rely on their own .the power to obtain a strong recovery in the circumstances, must take further quantitative easing 'overshoot' mode to stimulate the economy. "</ P> <P>" If the Fed does not act, then can not change the current state of the economy, and before .All the measures proposed to stimulate the economy will come to naught. "Hua Min pointed out that" further implementation of the quantitative easing measures, can be sustained after the stimulus, at least improve the likelihood of the current state of economic development. "As for the further implementation of the quantitative easing .whether we can effectively stimulate the U.S. economic recovery, the Shanghai University of Finance and Associate Director, Center of Modern Finance Jun Yang Xi told "International Finance," an interview, said: "On the one hand depends on the implementation of quantitative easing measures the intensity, depending on the other hand, .This slowdown in economic growth in the current state of inertia. "</ P> <P> Asian unified capital controls </ P> <P> continuation of U.S. weakness to the problems of hot money has been well received by Asian countries, greater .challenges. .Asian governments have tried to block the action of the massive hot money inflows. .</ P> <P> 10 12, the Thai government announced that foreign investment in bonds for capital gains and interest income received 15% withholding tax levied. .Thai Finance Minister had previously said the United States to release the liquidity policy, may further appreciation of the baht, and that the government will consider taking measures to curb excessive speculation on the baht. .</ P> <P> Prior to this, Korea has taken some measures of capital controls to curb the inflow of hot money. .October 12, the Chinese Administration of Foreign Exchange is also clear that in the second half to maintain the flow of hot money to combat high-pressure situation. .Xie Dongming OCBC Bank analyst, said: "Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries also adopted a number of interventions, but if the currency continues to appreciate, continued inflow of hot money is expected that these countries will take further intervention." </ P> < .P> Clearly, capital controls will be the Asian collective action. .Hua Min, said: "In the current United States and other Western countries have generally adopted a loose monetary policy of the Asian countries to curb hot money inflows have on the one hand capital controls, on the other hand to maintain the stability of exchange rates and interest rates." </ P> <P> .IMF harder and harder to "arbiter" </ P> <P> push down the dollar, Asian currencies force resisting hot money; the United States shouted loose again, Asian countries have intervened in domestic currency appreciation. .The exchange rate differences, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should be the best exchange rate war "arbitrator." .However, expert analysis, IMF in order to play this new role, and obviously needs more members for their support, after all, not just the United States IMF and the IMF. .</ P> <P> set up after World War II, IMF, whose mission is to provide members of international monetary cooperation and consultation, the meeting place, with the obligation to monitor exchange rates of national currencies, but the problem is with the World Trade Organization may make real .of different sanctions, IMF's conclusions do not have enforceable. .Monitoring national exchange rates and act as "arbiter of disputes exchange rate," there is clearly a big difference between the two. .</ P> <P> the United States IMF's "arbiter" role is respected. .U.S. Treasury secretary repeatedly called on the IMF and other global financial institutions, currency exchange rates in some countries play a more effective supervisory role. .He even called for the reform of IMF voting shares and the linked exchange rate adjustment. .</ P> <P> However, IMF to when the exchange rate "arbiter" is obviously a little wishful thinking. .Reform of the IMF for Geithner linked exchange rate to say, the Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said bluntly, this is a "non-mainstream" views. .The South African Minister of Finance, the Group of 24 main Xigeerdan is clear that the management structure should be the IMF exchange rate policy reform and to discuss these two issues separately. .</ P> <P> the face of opposition parties, IMF's Strauss-Kahn acknowledged, IMF could push the exchange rate reform, but only if "member states willing to participate in such discussions." .</ P>.
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