Xu Bin: Nobel Laureate theory of practical reference to China.

<P> </ P> <P align=center> </ P> <P align=center> Xu Bin </ P> <P> Beijing on October 11 evening news announced this week the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, in 2010 .American economist awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics PeterDiamond, DaleT.Mortensen and was born in Cyprus, three of the British economist ChristopherPissarides in recognition of their economic policies in explaining aspects of how it affects the contribution rate of unemployment. .</ P> <P> Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said: "The winners are the model help us understand the regulatory and economic policies of the Government in what way affect the rate of unemployment, job vacancies and wage movements." </ P> <P> .China Europe International Business School this Economics and Professor of Finance, Economics and Decision Sciences Department, said Xu Bin, Tencent Finance, the award-winning scholars, not the three economic circles beyond expectations. .PeterDiamond macroeconomics main contribution made by research on the labor market, his main point is: the labor market is not a frictionless market, each between employers and career there is a cost to find each other, and their research .- job search cost model that will improve the market even if there is unemployment. .DaleT.Mortensen and ChristopherPissarides two had co-written article, with the former theory, the main results in the labor market, employers and workers of the friction. .</ P> <P> Professor Xu Bin opinion, the three winners is not accidental, in theory, they have their own outstanding contributions to the research achievements of their fully qualified. .And why this year's award, which he considers the current global economic conditions, high unemployment, the recovery in the large background. .The public wants to know how economists think unemployment. .If during this period will be prizes awarded to scholars who study and perfect the market theory is obviously out of date. .</ P> <P> He also believes that the three winners for the contribution of economic theory should have an accurate understanding of the results of their theory does not explain the current unemployment rate of up to 10% in Europe and America can be said to explain just .3% of them because of unemployment caused by asymmetric information. .</ P> <P> another sense it is revealed with the system in the frictional unemployment: the labor market is improving, and this arrangement with the relationship between labor market institutions. .Which developing countries like China also has practical reference: Chinese labor mobility, the concept can be applied, if China can standardize intermediary labor force, they can reduce the cost of the labor market, reduce frictional unemployment. .</ P> <P> introduced, according to Xu Bin, PeterDiamond in the last century there were 80 papers related to this come out (after two classic articles come out in 1994, but it is also important to study stage 80), in .At that time, he was an independent study on the labor market will find the microeconomic foundation of macroeconomics, at the time he found that some workers are in a sunset industry, the replacement work, and employers can not seamlessly, but rather .search costs. .80 years, the development of information economics is an important process, in this background, the theoretical maturity. .But Xubin Jiang stressed, for its results, should be accurate understanding, can not say the first, after all, these results reveal only frictional unemployment. .</ P>.

Japan, encirclement of RMB seven western countries embarrassed mumbling aphasia.

<P> 30 years in the last century, triggered the world economic depression, the Great Depression of the "currency war", and is now the ghost flashes, great comeback trend. .</ P> <P> Japan, Korea, Brazil and other countries have taken unilateral monetary action recently to hold down their currencies. .Western countries put pressure on European and American efforts in emerging economies, the requirements of its currency to appreciate. .Seven just-concluded Western developed countries (G7) finance ministers and central bankers put the finger at China. .</ P> <P align=center> </ P> <P> this time, as the G7 members of Japan, is facing a difficult history of a rare appreciation of the yen, and its central bank and government have been shot several times, large-scale intervention .yen exchange rate. .This makes the G7 "solidarity" requires emerging economies should not intervene in the currency appreciation of the requirements appears to lack of confidence. .</ P> <P> "G7 is the formation of China's encirclement" </ P> <P> closing in Washington on the evening of 8 local time, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors, the main task is to expand the coordination to avoid .worries that the world economic slowdown in the context of the global currency of the "competitive devaluation" bigger and the appreciation of the RMB issue has become the biggest focus of the meeting. .</ P> <P> representatives attending the G-7 final agreement, said it would "prevent countries through cooperation to maintain exports to stimulate the economy and the competitive devaluations of the situation", requiring manipulation of exchange rates in emerging economies should not, must be allowed to own .currencies continue to appreciate. .</ P> <P> Although the statement did not name names in China, but Japanese media have said after the meeting: "G7 is the formation of the encirclement of China." .</ P> <P> actions beggar thy neighbor verbal Jiahuoyuren </ P> <P> 2008 fall of the "subprime crisis", the universality of the global economy has been hit. .</ P> <P> two years, international coordination, the national economy has entered a recovery period. .But suffering from high unemployment plagued Europe, America, Japan and other developed countries to take the extremely loose fiscal and monetary policy, hopes to force the new national currency to appreciate to its own advantage of currency devaluation to increase employment and exports, thereby promoting the local economy .recovery. .</ P> <P> a result of the move, resulting in a large number of international hot money into the high growth emerging economies, emerging economies and thus lead to increased pressure of currency appreciation, while inflation and lead to the formation of the bubble economy. .The developed countries still continue to be blamed the trade imbalance with China, led by emerging economies, due to exchange rate manipulation. .</ P> <P> G24 G7 group did not buy the accounts </ P> <P> 10, Japanese media reported that the decision in the developed world monetary order, "Plaza Accord" 25 years later, the set of the year .practices of globalization today can no longer be effective. .New world economic order to participate in the emerging economies how to build, is to make a big issue G7 headache. .</ P> <P> by the emerging economies and developing countries formed the Group of Twenty-Four (G24) countries on Thursday called for global cooperation in the areas of macroeconomic policy in order to ease tensions in the exchange rate. .</ P> <P> G24 attack in a public notice in the pursuit of advanced economies, low interest rate policy, resulting in other currencies pushed up. .</ P> <P> G24 General Presidency South African Finance Minister John Galsworthy said that the current policy of the developed countries led to large capital inflows in many emerging economies, making the currencies of these countries face the pressure of appreciation. .</ P> <P> firm stance clear on many occasions China's position </ P> <P> for the group of developed countries about China's fast-forward the requirements of revaluation, the Chinese side stand clear and firm, not moved by it. .</ P> <P> 6, Premier Wen Jiabao held in Brussels on the sixth China-EU Business Summit, said: "Many exporters profit margin is only 2% to 3%, the highest and only 5%. If by some .requirements, 20% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to 40%, China's export enterprises will be going bankrupt, workers will be unemployed, migrant workers will return home, the community is difficult to stability. If China's economic and social problems, will bring disaster to the world " .. .</ P> <P> Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that from 1994, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform to now, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated 55% during the same period some of the world's major currencies are devalued. .July 2005 to further deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, to the present, 22% appreciation against the dollar, which the United States during the Chinese trade surplus increased substantially. .This shows that China's trade surplus is the trade structure, not exchange rates. .</ P> <P> Premier Wen Jiabao also reiterated the objectives of the reform of RMB exchange rate stable, that is, to form the basis of market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, managed floating exchange rate system and gradually increase flexibility of RMB exchange rate to maintain .RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level. .</ P> <P> 8 May, at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting of the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told a news conference in the Chinese and foreign, will share the International Monetary Fund and the RMB exchange rate reform and other issues linked to, not .mainstream sound. .He stressed that China's currency reform will be gradual and orderly manner, and will not take so-called "shock therapy." .</ P> <P> several times in Japan not qualified to intervene in the exchange rate booing </ P> <P> rapid appreciation in the RMB issue, compared to the loud voice in Europe and America, the Japanese seemed more low-key. .The reason is that Japan does not take into account the overall situation of Sino-Japanese relations, but is in itself the occasion of the river clay Buddha. .</ P> <P> the Washington meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of Japan seemed to be somewhat embarrassed. .Recently because Japan is the only G7 intervened in an attempt to suppress the national currency exchange rates. .</ P> <P> to curb the rising yen, September 15, Japan after an interval of 6 and a half years after the intervention in the currency of the action taken, sold two trillion yen. .5 October, the Bank of Japan suddenly regain the "zero interest rate." .There are views that Japan's objective of these moves "to help China control the behavior of the exchange rate justified." .</ P> <P> after the conclusion of the G7 finance ministers meeting, Ye Tian Jiayan Japanese Finance Minister, said he at the meeting on the Japanese currency intervention to conduct a "clear statement", and stressed that the Japanese government's intervention "will not be long and .large-scale implementation, but also not for the yen exchange rate to maintain a certain level, "trying to show that intervention in foreign exchange markets in Japan and China are different words and deeds. .Europe and the United States did not support and understanding for this show, but did not offer criticism. .</ P> <P> Japanese analysts believe that Europe's move to Japan to take the "default" attitude of the reasons it is worried that a split within the G7, affecting the "united" to form the encirclement of China. .</ P> <P> intervention in the yen is still ascribed to unavoidable </ P> <P> However, the appreciation of the yen because the Japanese government's intervention did not stop. .8, New York foreign exchange market was once 81.72 yen 1 U.S. dollar to its highest level for 15 years, step by step approach $ 1 a record high of 79.75 yen against the value. .</ P> <P> in order to avoid further sharp appreciation of the yen and the formation of pressure on its economy and heavy losses, the majority view in Japan that the government and central bank still needs to continue to implement the interventions. .However, if re-intervention in foreign exchange, is bound to lead to a rebound in Europe and America. .</ P> <P> attempt to save the yen, Japan is now facing the G7 or the maintenance of the unity of a dilemma. .As for the RMB appreciation, Japan is now the mood in Europe also unable to come with yelling out. .</ P>.

Joint development effort BRIC countries refused to compromise on IMF quota adjustment programs.

<P> Interfax quoted Russian Deputy Finance Minister DmitryPankin today as saying that the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will not be the International Monetary Fund (IMF) quota adjustments to make new compromises on the issue .If the IMF does not adhere to the original quota adjustment programs, the BRIC countries will join hands to resist. .</ P> <P> DmitryPankin at a press conference on Friday, said BRIC finance ministers at the meeting held on Thursday has been consensus on this issue. .He said: "In the BRIC countries will not compromise on matters of principle." Under the original program, the International Monetary Fund will 5% of the quota from the original too many countries move on behalf of underrepresented countries, but this program .encountered much resistance, some developing countries believe that the transfer rate of 5% of the quota is not enough, and some developed countries refuse to reduce the quota. .</ P> <P> DmitryPankin told reporters: "We have made great concessions, and now the BRIC countries have agreed to accept the transfer rate of 5% of the quota." He said: "The adjustment of developing countries in the International Monetary Fund .Organization, said the quota share rose to 44.5% of total, but still can not with these countries and the World Bank 47% quota share of matches. "He added that, even so, some developed countries are still reluctant to reduce their own in the IMF .share of the quota. .</ P> <P> DmitryPankin said: "While we very much hope that the IMF quotas at the annual meeting can be adjusted to reach an agreement, but the current situation is very little hope." He said: "Although the United States .quota adjustment may be willing to compromise, but the EU seems in no hurry to reach an agreement on this issue. "</ P>.

The United States will announce on Friday whether China a "currency manipulator".

<P> According to Reuters October 11 reported that the U.S. Treasury currency report will be released Oct. 15, but some analysts expect that the report will be delayed or the public. .</ P> <P> reported that the government is facing a U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday (15 days) before the deadline to decide whether the first official announcement of China a "currency manipulator." .</ P> <P> Washington think tank, "Peterson Institute for International Economics," Bergsten charge is expected that this report will be delayed or the public. .According to reports, analysis, said Bergsten, according to the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week on whether China let the yuan appreciate some of the comments hard to believe that he will not report on Friday will be China as a currency manipulator. .</ P> <P> However, Bergsten said, Geithner is likely to report delayed until after the midterm elections. ."Postponed publication of the report will once again become a way of least resistance. Because if the midterm elections and now faces the pressure of motion released report of the House of Representatives, he could not (said China is a currency manipulator)? How could you not do this?." .</ P> <P> According to another report, Yoshitomo Kuka Tuo Institute (CatoInstitute) trade policy expert Daniel. Aiken Sen believes that Obama is likely the fourth time since taking office in China again, to avoid .labeled a "currency manipulator" label. .Aiken Sen said, "Overall, Obama not want to see the House bill becomes a bill," declared China a currency manipulator in the midterm elections will increase after the Senate action on the motion of the probability. .He also said that the motion of the House of Representatives on the Sino-US trade relations will only small effects, but the Senate legislation and get their approval of Obama, it is certainly "will be China as a provocation." .</ P>.

New York gold futures closing price exceeded $ 1,350 mark.

<P> Buying by investors and the dollar rebounded slightly and so the combined effect of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures traded 11 most active December contract rose $ 9.1 an ounce to close at $ 1,354.4, the highest closing price history .record, or 0.7%. .</ P> <P> analysts pointed out that, on profit-taking gold price into a tug of war with the bargain-hunting buying the one hand, very weak released last Friday's employment data confirmed the market on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board .Restart the prediction of quantitative easing soon, so whenever prices have come down to attract a large number of investors bargain hunting in order to hedge the risk of shrinking purchasing power of money. .</ P> <P> In addition, since October, gold prices have jumped 3.4% on the same attract some investors took profits, to transfer funds to the stock market. .</ P> <P> day response to a basket of currencies the dollar parity of the dollar exchange rate rose 0.43% to 77.51, a stronger dollar means the dollar price of gold for investors holding foreign currencies are getting expensive, but also adding to its rise .the resistance. .</ P> <P> of that day said that the current worrying situation of economic recovery in Europe and America, accelerated depreciation of the dollar, inflation was expected to heat up as the best hedging tool for gold Nan Yi afternoon rally. .</ P> <P> 12 silver futures for November delivery rose 24.4 cents an ounce to close at $ 23.349, or 1.1%. .Platinum futures for delivery in January fell $ 17.9 an ounce to close at $ 1,690.8, down 1%. .</ P>.

Soros warned that the risk of financial reform, there are still loopholes.

<P> U.S. Eastern Time October 11 (Beijing Time October 12) news, George Soros, Stiglitz pointed out that the financial reform and other financial giants are still "can not avoid risk" vulnerabilities, and warned financial institutions to large-scale .not only lead to failure, and a negative knock-on effect. .</ P> <P> days ago, "Financial Times" in New York "future finance", the International Conference George Soros, the Nobel laureate Joseph - Stiglitz said at a panel discussion: financial reform, there are still " .can not avoid risk "vulnerability. .</ P> <P> group on the core issue is whether the new Basel II makes today's financial system more secure. .September 12, after nearly nine months of consultations, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of 27 member economies to reach a new agreement together, "Basel III", aimed at strengthening the capital requirements for the global banking system. .</ P> <P> when George Soros made the problem how to avoid the risks that lead to heated discussion participants. .Stiglitz said that despite the proposed Basel II minimum capital requirements for trying to avoid risks, it is still problematic financial institutions rely on the financial model. .</ P> <P> on Wall Street "perverse incentives", Stiglitz is a common mistake that this perception of risk, which would make Wall Street have an opportunity to use loopholes in supervision and risk transfer to the final .Taxpayers head. .</ P> <P> Soros, Stiglitz warned that the future of financial institutions are still too big and the financial risk of failure, and the risk will cause a negative chain reaction. .Soros said the economic crisis, the current regulation has yet to make any effective control. .</ P>.

Currency "Running Out of Time": solution-maker who.

<P> Currently, the dollar's decline triggered by the devaluation of the currency race to the "rate war" is still troubled. .Such as Thailand, Thai Bond levy on foreign investment income to 15% of capital into the Thai bond market, slow pace; and the European Central Bank official yesterday called for the need to avoid large-scale direct intervention in currency markets move. .</ P> <P> caused by the weaker dollar, "currency war", the underlying reason is that the global economic recovery is not an ideal situation, the countries hope that the weak currency to stimulate exports. .With the dollar expected to weaken because of lax, due to the Asian emerging market countries, the liberal policy of developed countries led to large capital inflows and lead to further sharp appreciation of the currency headache; other euro appreciation against the dollar last month, about 10% last week to 1.40 .this level has traditionally been the euro zone officials and exporters as a "pain threshold" (painthreshold), analysts believe the euro currency war is most likely negative, because the complexities facing the euro area the ECB's decision-making that more difficult. .</ P> <P> But analysts believe that in the G20 summit approached, the dispute about the money eventually will be a solution, but the dollar's role should be important that the U.S. needs to change to reach a compromise so the current .the case of unilateral decreased. .</ P> <P> disorderly dollar decline began in some institutions and a new round of Fed officials hint of quantitative easing, the U.S. lost economic data further confirm the above is implied, but the Fed's attitude within the quantitative easing .and understanding of quantitative easing market seems to show U.S. "compromise" attitude. .</ P>.

Microsoft launches Windows Phone 7.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer (Steve Ballmer) Windows Phone 7 in New York conference. .Operating system Microsoft introduced WindowsPhone7 <P>, selling several of its hardware in the work and personalized settings, and personal computers with multimedia and the ability to bind. .</ P> <P> WindowsPhone7 will first appear in the three devices, through 24 operators in 60 countries issued. .In the U.S. it was first used in the HTC (HTC), LG Electronics and Samsung mobile phones. .</ P> <P> Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer (SteveBallmer) compatibility with hardware platforms and customization services for the subject held a press conference, the conference's slogan is "DelightfullyMine". .</ P> <P> "We want a good Windows Mobile device through a series of hardware." He said. .</ P> <P> Windows also will expand its mobile video service to its U-verse TV service will use the phone, even to those not in the AT & T network to other operators to provide an additional pay services. .TV programs will be able to Wi-Fi network is downloaded to the phone. .</ P> <P> AT & T mobile and consumer market sectors president and CEO Ralph de la Vega (RalphdelaVega) said, 4G network rollout will enable more easy to download video content. .He said, AT & T's offer of "WindowsPhone7 will be a cornerstone." .</ P> <P> first mobile phone will be launched on November 8, a total of nine models use the operating system, priced at 199.99. .In addition to HTC, LG Electronics and Samsung, Dell will also provide a mobile phone, though Ballmer did not specify when it will be launched in the U.S. market. .</ P> <P> Microsoft Windows Mobile 乔贝尔菲奥 vice president of project management in the (JoeBelfiore) said, WindowsPhone7 ability and bing with Facebook and other web-based services linked. .He also shows how to edit PowerPoint files, and handling photos and video to demonstrate the ability of the phone. .</ P> <P> WindowsPhone7 He also demonstrated the ability of a gaming platform, revealing a three-dimensional display capability and the ability to integrate with the Xbox. .</ P> <P> Microsoft's mobile phone market last raid, only two months of its mobile phone Kin was withdrawn from the shelves. .</ P> <P> debut in Barcelona earlier this year, the WindowsPhone7 is Microsoft's entry into fast-growing mobile market in another attempt. .Ballmer said in an interview before the company has had missteps, and WindowsPhone7 is alive and stronger performance of another attempt. .</ P> <P> Microsoft shares closed Friday at $ 24.57, in midday trading Monday, still close to that level. .</ P>.

"Currency war": there are no winners in a game.

<P> While countries agreed to deepen the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the "exchange rate the police" role, but could not find common ground, has been unable to reach consensus on specific agreements. .Governments had to "peace" to deliver the aspirations held in Seoul next month, the Group of 20 (G20) summit. .</ P> <P> analysts pointed out that once the "currency war" broke out, and ultimately will lead to global trade war, and even endanger the global financial system. .</ P> <P> 1 back: depreciation of the dollar </ P> <P> the lead in the second annual meeting of IMF and World Bank on exchange rate issues, the world's major economies, began to draw the front. .US-led Western developed economies, exchange rate misalignment will blame others, and emerging economies is the United States accused the extremely loose monetary policy led to the influx of hot money and make the global exchange rate system and imbalance. .</ P> <P> as the IMF's Strauss-Kahn said: "RMB revaluation should not be covered by his government as a fig leaf for their questions. Scapegoating always easy." </ P> <P> this ."currency war" can not be ignored behind the depreciation of the dollar is the dominant factor. .As the primary international reserve currency, the United States can be diverse and subtle ways, for example, affect the market transaction through the U.S. Treasury interest rates and money supply, or by lowering benchmark interest rates affect the dollar exchange rate. .</ P> <P> recent months, the Fed will once again expand the money supply, thus further reducing the expected short-term U.S. bond yields have been putting pressure on the dollar and boosted the euro, yen and other emerging markets .currency. .This forced some governments to take response measures. .</ P> <P> Brazilian Finance Minister Mantega October 9, said, "and the rapid expansion of the zero interest rate monetary policy to stimulate domestic demand though, but also led to currency devaluation. So developing countries will continue to accumulate foreign exchange reserves .thus avoiding the "volatility and appreciation". </ P> <P> the People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang during the annual meeting of the "Business News", told reporters that the current U.S. interest rates are at historically low levels, emerging markets .national monetary policy, "recipient", rather than the makers, the carry trade to a large extent explains the result of capital inflows in emerging market countries facing appreciation pressure. </ P> <P> Brazil's former Minister of Finance .Pedro Malan (PedroMalan) In an interview with "Business News" interview, also said the dollar carry trade is the result of low interest rates in emerging markets mainly due to currency appreciation pressure. </ P> <P> Russian Deputy Finance Minister .Pankin (DmitryPankin) at the annual conference that China, Brazil, Russia and India will be the currency of any sharp evaluation of the control to be strongly resisted. Pankin said the four countries have agreed position that the exchange rate itself is not a problem, but only .willingness to invest such savings will and the result of deeper problems. </ P> <P> 2 results: there are no winners </ P> <P> more and more countries are trying to devalue the currency to increase export competitiveness, stimulate economic growth .. Despite the current national action to intervene in currency markets is still relatively modest, but there is still imminent danger. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said: "The war is not a currency, but competitive or competitive devaluation does not appreciate the perspective .Obviously, the situation moving in an unfavorable direction. ."</ P> <P> analysts pointed out that if the" currency war "were to happen, the Federal Reserve estimated in 2011 will clearly be the extent to which, after further quantitative easing policy. If there are signs that the Fed's policy of quantitative easing .measures more restrained, may still stabilize the foreign exchange market. </ P> <P> a certain sense, the current "currency war" is more like money in the name of the modern trade war. Since the crisis, the export trade .restore economic growth to become the world's lifeblood, and countries can not directly use tariffs to protect their commodity, currency devaluation as an important shield to increase competitiveness. </ P> <P> However, despite the devaluation to promote exports, but also damage the trading partners .interests, which may take the depreciation of the same strategy. and currency war "losers" will launch a trade war pre-emptive attempt by way of re-establishing trade barriers for trade advantage. </ P> <P> Once this multi-country .game "currency war" broke out, countries in the tooth for a tooth, tit for tat actions into a vicious circle. The global economy will slide into a fear of trade protectionism, "melee", the end result will be a collective defeat. </ P> .<P> has successfully predicted the credit crisis, economics professor at New York University Lubin Ni (NourielRoubini) recently said: "We are in a devaluation of the world all want, but every currency devaluation is not balanced .. .Currency intervention will eventually lead to trade war war. ."</ P> <P> this" war "is far more than the influence of the trade level. Currency brokers may also be in trouble, as did 2008 and suffered heavy losses. Their loss will further spread to the global financial system .other areas, the consequences would be unthinkable. </ P> <P> as Korean Ministry of Finance Planning Executive Yoon Jeung-hyun pointed out, if all countries cooperate with each other, can achieve better results, if the distrust, and pursue their own interests, will be faced with ."worst case". </ P> <P> 3 address: Urgent global collaboration </ P> <P> the last century, the Great Depression 30 years has proven this "worst case." In response to the Great Depression and then .protect American jobs, the U.S. passed the "Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act" (Smoot-HawleyTariffAct), a substantial increase in tariffs on most imported products, triggering a trade war, global recession deepened. </ P> .<P> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has repeatedly stressed that, in 1929, after the stock market crash, the world if not to the extreme protectionist trade policies, maybe we will not fall into the last century, the Great Depression of 30's appalling. </ .P> <P> World Bank President Robert Zoellick called for international cooperation to solve the problem, avoid repeating the 30's during the Great Depression countries to take selfish strategy error: "History has proved that selfish, beggar thy neighbor policy is no way out. .If we fall into strife or into any form of protectionism, then we may repeat the Great Depression of the thirties of last century when the mistakes. ."He said, governments current dispute on the exchange rate will hit investor confidence is not conducive to private sector participation into the world economic recovery. </ P> <P> French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde (ChristineLagarde) said during the meeting .: "We want (money) peace rather than 'war'. ."The French central bank governor, Noah (ChristianNoyer) also said policy makers around the world need to" develop the market confidence, rather than launching the currency war. ."He pointed out that excessive exchange rate volatility would damage economic growth. </ P> <P> At the same time, Kahn called on countries not only in words, mild language, but also to take concrete steps:" Language is not valid .. .Language can not change things, we must adopt specific policies. ."</ P> <P> 4 follow-up: the exchange rate or the leading G20 summit </ P> <P> Rehn also called on countries around the world need to strengthen coordination of monetary policy in order to avoid exchange rate fluctuations and achieve more balanced economic growth. He .that such collaboration can be the framework of IMF or the G20. </ P> <P> British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne (GeorgeOsborne) on Friday said: "We do need to be more market-oriented, reflecting the basic .surface exchange rate mechanism, G20 and the IMF should play a role in helping achieve this goal. ."</ P> <P> Because it is difficult to find common ground, governments agreed at the annual meeting by the IMF to act as" exchange rate the police "role, the development of relevant reports to show how the policies of one country to other countries. These studies will mainly .concentrated in the United States, China, Britain, the euro zone. </ P> <P> Kahn said: "The spillover effects of the discussion of the report have been carried out for several months, and now has become our 'toolbox' part. ."</ P> <P> In addition, IMF's Strauss-Kahn on Friday also made a" systemic stability "of the initiative. In accordance with the initiative, IMF coordination in many areas to alleviate the" money .war "tensions. But in the end of the IMF meeting, he proposed a more narrow approach that will focus on strengthening the IMF to members on the review of exchange rate policies. </ P> <P> many officials support .IMF exchange rate to play a greater role, but also that the IMF a more limited capacity to act, because the organization can not force members to accept his views. Some officials suggested the IMF should continue to play in the G20 meeting of advisory role. </ .P> <P> exchange rate is likely to be held in Seoul next month's Group of 20 (G20) summit, the dominant issue. if the differences between countries summit in Seoul are still unable to get mediation, will mark the G20 is .response to the financial crisis and the formation of the united front broken. </ P>.

Japanese media said the United States over China as the largest holder of government bonds.

<P> U.S. Treasury released data show that this year Japan has accumulated a 55.3 billion purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, holdings of a rate of 7.2%, Japan's current holdings of U.S. debt totaled 821 billion U.S. dollars. .China has become Japan's more than this largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, since August 2008 for the first time. .</ P> <P> data show that since the beginning of this year, China has continued to sell U.S. treasury bonds, but in China before the end of August is still the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. .China's massive sell-off in other countries does not reduce the enthusiasm of U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. Treasury figures show this year, foreign government purchases of U.S. treasury bonds totaling 374 billion U.S. dollars, in U.S. Treasury bonds issued this year, the proportion of the total as high as 10 .%. .</ P> <P> Japan is the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds. .Data show that China's huge sell-off in July this year, U.S. Treasury bonds, while Japan has a large number of buying. .This year, China had 48.1 billion holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, reduction rate of 5.4%. .</ P> <P> foreign governments and overseas investors from buying U.S. Treasury bonds prompted the U.S. Treasury yields remained low. .Bank of America data show that the current average yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has gone from the financial crisis in 2007 when the 5.21% to 1.31% currently. .</ P> <P> Credit Suisse (CreditSuisseGroupAG) CarlLantz analyst in New York, said: "These data suggest that investors remain confident in buying U.S. Treasury bonds." He said: "The world financial crisis led to a bleak economic outlook, when the United States has .become a haven for global investors. "</ P> <P> CarlLantz said, according to current trends, foreign governments and overseas investors to buy U.S. Treasury bonds before the end of the total may reach 641 billion U.S. dollars, exceeding the 614.8 billion U.S. dollars last year. .He said that while U.S. Treasury yields low but very safe, and good liquidity. .Necessary, investors can easily put their holdings of U.S. treasury bonds convertible into cash. .He added that the prospects for world economic recovery, the more bleak, investors demand greater U.S. Treasury bonds. .</ P>.

New York, gold fell $ 7.7 12, 13, the Shanghai Gold opened higher shock.

<P> As the dollar rebounded from the high international price of gold fell 12. .However, the Shanghai Gold slightly affected, 13 of the price is still slightly higher in early trading opened shortly after opening to maintain the trend shock. .</ P> <P> main Shanghai Gold 1012 opened today at 292.00 yuan / gram, compared with the previous settlement price rose 1.41 yuan, as of 9:18 reported the latest price of 292.04 yuan / gram, up 0.5%. .</ P> <P> New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) futures settlement price of gold closed down 12, the most actively traded on the main gold contract fell COMEX12 $ 7.70, or 0.6%, to $ 1,346.70 an ounce, trading range .between 1314.40-1356.30 dollars an ounce. .</ P> <P> the Fed's meeting minutes showed policy makers that "soon" to further relax the policy may be appropriate. .Meanwhile, a third consecutive cut is expected U.S. economic growth is expected in the second half of 2010 and 2011 economic growth will slow more than previously expected. .</ P> <P> CSC Futures Division, said Zhu accordingly, taking into account the second round of the Fed expected QE increasing investment demand for gold and physical gold demand will continue to constitute a support for gold. .Therefore, he believes that gold is still strong, the proposed price of gold back $ 1,350 in choosing the right intervention. .</ P>.

U.S. desire "overshoot" to stimulate the economy in Asia, "defense" hot money in Europe and America.

<P> "High unemployment rate in the United States, can not see the downward trend in the short term, and the economy can not rely on market forces to obtain a strong recovery in its own case, we must take further quantitative easing 'overshoot' mode to stimulate the economy." < ./ P> <P> "in the current United States and other Western countries have generally adopted a loose monetary policy of the Asian countries to curb hot money inflow of capital controls have on the one hand, on the other hand to maintain the stability of exchange rates and interest rates." </ P> < .P> local time on October 12, the Fed decided to continue the Federal Open interest rates to historic lows, the same time, policy makers also emphatic: "In the near future to introduce further quantitative easing monetary policy is appropriate." Clearly, the Fed this .a move will undoubtedly exacerbate the trend of global financial tide in Asia. .For such a situation, Japan, Korea, Thailand and other Asian governments have large inflows of hot money shot blocking, inhibiting their currencies appreciate. .</ P> <P> the direction of the United States has been set loose again </ P> <P> the recent spate of statements from the Fed point of view, the second round of quantitative easing measures taken by the tendency has been very obvious. .Minutes of the meeting released Tuesday also showed that if the Fed to take further quantitative easing measures implemented through two means, an increase of long-term bonds to buy down the cost of borrowing by the way, and to promote public expectations of future inflation will rise way to stimulate current spending .. .</ P> <P> Institute of World Economy, Fudan University in China and China to accept the "International Finance News" interview, said: "The high unemployment rate in the United States, can not see the downward trend in the short term, and the market economy can not rely on their own .the power to obtain a strong recovery in the circumstances, must take further quantitative easing 'overshoot' mode to stimulate the economy. "</ P> <P>" If the Fed does not act, then can not change the current state of the economy, and before .All the measures proposed to stimulate the economy will come to naught. "Hua Min pointed out that" further implementation of the quantitative easing measures, can be sustained after the stimulus, at least improve the likelihood of the current state of economic development. "As for the further implementation of the quantitative easing .whether we can effectively stimulate the U.S. economic recovery, the Shanghai University of Finance and Associate Director, Center of Modern Finance Jun Yang Xi told "International Finance," an interview, said: "On the one hand depends on the implementation of quantitative easing measures the intensity, depending on the other hand, .This slowdown in economic growth in the current state of inertia. "</ P> <P> Asian unified capital controls </ P> <P> continuation of U.S. weakness to the problems of hot money has been well received by Asian countries, greater .challenges. .Asian governments have tried to block the action of the massive hot money inflows. .</ P> <P> 10 12, the Thai government announced that foreign investment in bonds for capital gains and interest income received 15% withholding tax levied. .Thai Finance Minister had previously said the United States to release the liquidity policy, may further appreciation of the baht, and that the government will consider taking measures to curb excessive speculation on the baht. .</ P> <P> Prior to this, Korea has taken some measures of capital controls to curb the inflow of hot money. .October 12, the Chinese Administration of Foreign Exchange is also clear that in the second half to maintain the flow of hot money to combat high-pressure situation. .Xie Dongming OCBC Bank analyst, said: "Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries also adopted a number of interventions, but if the currency continues to appreciate, continued inflow of hot money is expected that these countries will take further intervention." </ P> < .P> Clearly, capital controls will be the Asian collective action. .Hua Min, said: "In the current United States and other Western countries have generally adopted a loose monetary policy of the Asian countries to curb hot money inflows have on the one hand capital controls, on the other hand to maintain the stability of exchange rates and interest rates." </ P> <P> .IMF harder and harder to "arbiter" </ P> <P> push down the dollar, Asian currencies force resisting hot money; the United States shouted loose again, Asian countries have intervened in domestic currency appreciation. .The exchange rate differences, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should be the best exchange rate war "arbitrator." .However, expert analysis, IMF in order to play this new role, and obviously needs more members for their support, after all, not just the United States IMF and the IMF. .</ P> <P> set up after World War II, IMF, whose mission is to provide members of international monetary cooperation and consultation, the meeting place, with the obligation to monitor exchange rates of national currencies, but the problem is with the World Trade Organization may make real .of different sanctions, IMF's conclusions do not have enforceable. .Monitoring national exchange rates and act as "arbiter of disputes exchange rate," there is clearly a big difference between the two. .</ P> <P> the United States IMF's "arbiter" role is respected. .U.S. Treasury secretary repeatedly called on the IMF and other global financial institutions, currency exchange rates in some countries play a more effective supervisory role. .He even called for the reform of IMF voting shares and the linked exchange rate adjustment. .</ P> <P> However, IMF to when the exchange rate "arbiter" is obviously a little wishful thinking. .Reform of the IMF for Geithner linked exchange rate to say, the Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said bluntly, this is a "non-mainstream" views. .The South African Minister of Finance, the Group of 24 main Xigeerdan is clear that the management structure should be the IMF exchange rate policy reform and to discuss these two issues separately. .</ P> <P> the face of opposition parties, IMF's Strauss-Kahn acknowledged, IMF could push the exchange rate reform, but only if "member states willing to participate in such discussions." .</ P>.

Odds against hot money in emerging markets geometry wars.

<P> Government bonds on foreign investment in Thailand capital gains tax; Japan might again intervene in currency markets, said weakened the yen from rising; South Korea to buy U.S. dollars were repeatedly found to inhibit the appreciation of the currency ... ... step by step with the higher number of Asian currencies, .Governments have also taken effective measures to stop hot money inflows and hopes strong momentum of domestic currency. .</ P> <P> hot money ferocious </ P> <P> hot money ferocious. .Asia-Pacific and other emerging market countries, the most direct funding currency as the "target." .Emerging market stocks also will be a sharp rise. .</ P> <P> the past few days, the U.S. dollar against the yen at 82.40 yen hovering the 15-year low, dollar against South Africa, Israel and Switzerland and many other country's currency fell to its lowest point for years. .In addition, the Australian dollar fell to its lowest level since 1983. .This year the baht against the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 11%, close to 13 years high. .</ P> <P> professional capital flows monitoring bodies EPFR (Emerging Markets Investment Fund Research) figures released last week, with the U.S. dollar against major currencies fell to multi-year lows, capital flows to emerging market assets in the amount of 10 .sharp increase in the first week of January, a total of more than 60 billion dollars of net inflows in 2007 reached its highest level since the fourth quarter, net capital inflows is the second largest ever. .</ P> <P> end of last week, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets index has gained 10% during the past week the index hit a 27-month high. .In contrast, MSCI global stock index over the same period increased only 4%. .</ P> <P> depreciation of the dollar as the hot money that has been favored commodity. .Last week, gold rose to a record high of $ 1,364.6 an ounce. .In recent months, while crude oil contract gained 1.32% last week, rose for the third straight week, crude oil prices touched $ 84.43 a barrel in intraday high of 5 months. .Three weeks in recent months, the cumulative crude oil contract rose as high as 12.22%. .</ P> <P> dollar fueled </ P> <P> experts believe that the depreciation of the dollar surging hot money is undoubtedly one of the biggest promoter. .12, the Fed released minutes of the meeting, the participating officials that, shortly after the weak economy may need more support. .This is interpreted by the market, the Fed will soon implement the second round of "quantitative easing" policy. .This will have more to put more pressure on the weak dollar. .</ P> <P> Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has said that the Federal Reserve and European central banks entered the financial system "substantial liquidity" is to bring the foreign exchange market instability .forces such as Japan and Brazil, countries have to defend their export industries, and thus foreign exchange market intervention. .</ P> <P> addition, the U.S. Treasury currency report will be released 15. .Affixed to China three times to avoid a "currency manipulator" label the Obama administration, once again faced with whether to declare China a "currency manipulator" option. .However, analysts expect the report will be delayed or the public. .12 U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in recent weeks China has let the yuan to "substantial part of the" rise, and may in the long term to allow its further appreciation. .</ P> <P> countries need to cooperate closely </ P> <P> the face of rising asset prices are inflated, the Asian economies have introduced a number of interventions, hoping to weaken the currency appreciation of the national economy negative .impact. .</ P> <P> data showed Japan's accumulated in the last month to sell 2.1 trillion yen (about 25.6 billion U.S. dollars) to intervene in currency markets; Korea carried out since the end of September from a total of about 130 billion dollars in interventions. .Thai cabinet announced in 12, on foreign investment in bonds will impose capital gains and interest income of 15% withholding tax. .Previously, Brazil has on foreign investment in its bonds and other financial instruments to increase the tax rate doubled to 4%. .</ P> <P> analysts say, South Korea, Indonesia may be in the coming months to take further control on capital flows, and India and the Philippines will also join the ranks of intervention. .According to data compiled by commercial traders IFR forecast data, the Asian authorities on September 27 to October 12 between the date of purchase through the intervention a total of 32.7 billion. .</ P> <P> European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet called for 12 countries to avoid falling into protectionism, and to avoid the introduction may disrupt the global economy. ."What we need now is not any form of" war ", but rather strengthen the commitment to close cooperation." Trichet said. .</ P> <P> the market, analysts said treatment of the exchange rate issue, "the whole world needs to have patience." </ P>.

Chinese demand is down in the fourth quarter forced to land the three major ore ore price reduced by 10% announced.

<P> Soaring iron ore prices finally stop. .Yesterday, a number of steel companies said had been received from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and CVRD's latest offer letter is given, starting from October the supply of iron ore price reduced by 10%, this is the first time in three ore price cut this year .. .Industry analysts generally agreed that China demand is forcing down prices of the main reasons for the three mines. .</ P> <P> ore prices this year, the first drop </ P> <P> the latest Customs statistics show that the first three quarters of domestic iron ore import 460 million tons, down 2.5%, with import price .$ 121.7 per ton, up 56.4%. .China Minmetals Group deputy general manager, who declined to be named, said: "China is the largest buyer of the three mines, the current slowdown in the steel demand, reduced response to the current spot price ore mine Market." </ P> < .P> China's Economic Development Research Center of Metallurgical Industry Vice Renchen Ling Analysis: "the three fundamental factors ore prices down is the rate of increase in steel demand down, which led directly to steel prices decline in iron ore demand for raw materials." According to the briefing .in recent months, the domestic steel market run weak, iron ore prices remain high, the pressure of a larger business. .Coupled with the Government target of energy saving power restriction to limit production than expected, leading many companies active or passive cut, weakened demand for raw materials. .</ P> <P> In addition, the continued tightening of real estate demand for construction steel has been greatly inhibited. .The elimination of backward production capacity, "the steel industry production standard operating conditions" were all inhibited the rise in the iron and steel production, demand for raw materials naturally inhibited. .</ P> <P> fourth quarter iron ore imports will rise </ P> <P> However, with the third quarter rose nearly 30% of iron ore rate compared to the fourth quarter have dropped 10% of Chinese steel .enterprises is not much good. .The industry admits, dominance of the three mines is still not changed. .</ P> <P> "My steel" net Jiesheng analysts had predicted earlier, the ore prices high and other reasons, the domestic steel prices are limited to purchases, and with the decline in the fourth quarter of ore and steel prices in raw materials prices .inventory reduction, inventory fill the needs of late there, iron ore imports in the fourth quarter it will have a certain level of improvement. .</ P> <P> expert analysis, said: "To break the bottleneck of iron ore, the key is to control the rapid growth of steel production. The first 8 years of steel production is a spurt of development, showing double-digit growth, iron ore .supply can not keep up, to the three major ore price increase 'emboldened'. "</ P> <P> steel prices," self "significantly increase </ P> <P> we all know, has been in the iron steel industry .ore negotiations are in a passive situation, and in order to reverse the weak position of the Chinese steel prices began to increase ore self-sufficiency ratio. .Currently, China's dependence on imported iron ore is reduced. .</ P> <P> example, the global control of Wuhan Iron and Steel now has reached a hundred hundred million tons of iron ore resources. .Qi Tang Lin, general manager of Wuhan Iron and Steel has said publicly that there will be 600 million tons this year, Wuhan Iron and development of ore transported back overseas, accounting for 25% of demand, five years after the Wuhan Iron Ore will be fully self-sufficient. .</ P> <P> Hebei Iron and Steel Group is also clear that each of the next five years the amount of additional 500 million tons of iron ore self-sufficiency, to the "Twelve Five" to self-sufficiency rate of 35%, with domestic iron ore supply ., the dependence on foreign ore more from the current 50% to 30% less. .</ P>.

Facing the world currency war Geithner insists denied the yuan is undervalued.

<P> Published Oct. 14, according to the "Global Times" reported that the U.S. and other Western countries have recently frequently to China to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate, so that the currency war, trade war, heard to say. .However, the Chinese launched an attack to keep the lead of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is 12, said he saw no risk of a global currency war. .</ P> <P> Reuters on the 12th, Geithner said in an interview, not the outbreak of the currency war, "there is no such risk." .Geithner also continue to pressure China on currency. .He said that if China continues to keep the yuan undervalued, contrary to its economic development efforts, is not conducive to achieving basic development goals. .He also said the yuan currency undervalued to other emerging economies is not fair. ."Because the Chinese currency undervalued currency, currencies of other countries rise, they must be very hard to get rid of an unfair disadvantage. Therefore, this issue is not only imperative the United States, other countries are also very important. This is a global problem .. "</ P> <P> Geithner acknowledged that the past few weeks has been more substantial appreciation of the yuan, saying it was a gradual process. .He did not touch on is scheduled to be issued this Friday whether the U.S. financial report accusing China of currency manipulation. .At this point he has said China as a currency manipulator will not have a good effect, because China is still in negotiations. .</ P> <P> constant reports about the recent currency war, trade war argument. .13, according to Agence France-Presse reported that Germany's visiting Minister of Economy and Technology Bruderle warned that the world faces the risk of trade war. .He also repeatedly criticized the United States criticized China's currency policy put forward, said the U.S. erred in not trying to control Washington, their own problems, the lack of competitiveness. .CNN13 reported that the global currency war fears rise further, the latest evidence is that foreign holders of bonds will be taxed in Thailand. .</ P>.

Cut at least 10% of U.S. rice prices are expected to rise about three meters into the.

U.S. Rice Producers Association <P> 12, said the U.S. rice production this year, or at least cut than expected 10%, it is difficult to achieve the desired, which will once again push the international price of rice by 30%. .Last year the United States is the world's fourth-largest rice exporter. .</ P> <P> President of the United States Rice Producers Association, said Dwight Roberts, due to hot weather areas of the United States and the rice yield rate of rice futures on the Chicago market before January next year, may rise to 100 .pounds 16-17 U.S. dollars. .He has correctly predicted rice topped $ 16 last year. .</ P> <P> poor production may inhibit U.S. exports. .The recent floods in Pakistan yield greatly reduced, and the country last year is the third largest exporter. .Relative to the June 30 low of $ 9.55 for the year reached, rice futures have risen 37% so far. .</ P> <P> rice market consulting services company Firstgrain Milo Hamilton, president of the U.S. rice output of 11 situation, "said Price had just started to rise. We are facing is a problem crops." < ./ P> <P> that this year the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the country's rice production decreased by 5% to 11 million tons, and estimated yield per hectare from 2005 to 2006 will be reduced to the lowest level since the crop season. .</ P> <P> addition to rice, other problems crop yields by market concerns. .FAO released in September of this year's "World Crop Prospects and Food Situation" report said that since July this year, the international price of wheat soared 60-80%, corn prices rose about 40%. .</ P> <P> experts believe that the factors affected by extreme weather, the world's major grain producing areas of production cuts, soaring international food prices this year incentive. .This year, the Russian grain production is expected to drop more than 30%, Germany is expected to cut 20% of wheat, Canadian wheat is expected to cut 17%. .In addition, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia, the world's major grain-producing areas also occur due to abnormal weather cut. .</ P> <P> to ensure domestic supply, and inhibited food prices, the Russian government decided to temporarily ban food exports, the Government of Ukraine also intends to limit food exports before the end of this year. .</ P> <P> the international market to react violently to this. .This year in August, the United States Chicago Board of Trade September soft red winter wheat for delivery daily limit, 23 months to hit its highest level in 80% higher than in June. .Delivery of the Stock Exchange in December last week, corn futures hit daily limit, to $ 5.7325 a bushel. .Since September 2008 reached the highest level. .Affected by this pull, the International Maize and rice and other grains prices have ushered in a rally. .</ P>.