Russia's economy has yet to exit the wheel fog area

In the international financial crisis, Russia's economy in the first half of this year, a substantial decline in the excessive reliance on energy industry and overseas market disadvantages fully manifested. It is precisely because of the economy subject to changes in the external market, therefore the Russian Government introduced a series of measures is not immediate crisis.

Prior to this, the Russian Government has projected economic growth this year from the original-2.2% to-8% to-8.5%. The International Monetary Fund predicted Russia this year-over-year decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) 6.5%. Because the "BRIC", Russia in the crisis of the worst, have individual experts recommend denial of their "brick" title.

Russia's economy or u-trend

Russia Ministry of economic development, the first half of this year, Russian economic downturn 10.1% year-on-year, second-quarter GDP decline 10.4%, higher than first quarter 9.8%. The first half of the Russian social-economic development report pointed out, "the decline and the initiative to reduce the investment."

Fixed capital investments in the first half of last year reduces 18.2%. In loans difficult background, the decline was greatest in construction investment, 19.3%. The first half of the decline in industrial output, processing output 14.8% decline 23.1%. Fall is the largest industrial electric equipment, electronic and optical equipment, transport equipment, machinery and equipment, as well as non-metallic mineral products.

However, some data display, Russia's economy seemed to be slowly coming out of the bottom. Among them, may, June and July industrial production index shall achieve positive growth. In addition, gross domestic product (GDP) growth ring than 0.4% in July, the ring than 0.5 percent. Russian first Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov on August 24, on media that Russian economic growth "start", but not forgotten and then add that — as far as the uptrend is durable, need 3 months observation. Russian Deputy Minister of economic development's column OPAC said that Russia's economic downturn has come to an end, but which have already begun active is not durable, "recession is over, but the crisis has also".

Moscow bykovo Driscoll School of management, Office of the Registrar on warm Wade said that Russia's economic trend "may not be a V-type, but a u-shaped", i.e. not in decline after the rebound, but immediately after a period of stability is restored. The expert also said if oil prices fell below $ 40 per barrel, does not exclude Russia economy may decline again.

Russia market analysts sapronov said, before the crisis, Russian enterprises expect high demand, and a large number of reserved commodity. But the second half of last year, demand reduction, sales, inventory surplus. In this context, enterprise production, which have production decline. At present, the reserved commodity sales, companies began to fill the inventory, but at the same time the lack of demand growth, sales trend is still unstable. Three quarters of the supply of Russian enterprises. Sapronov believes that currently, Russia's economy had just walked out of the bottom, only needs to be active, talk about growth.

Although the consuming to GDP decline of not too big, but it is growing quickly. First quarter, only a slight decline in retail sales in Russia 0.1%, while the second quarter decreased 5.6%, July the year sags 8.2%--for the past 10 years the largest year-over-year decline. Temperature Wade said that Russia consumer purchasing power "disappeared overnight."

Russia "newspaper network," in late July, it is estimated that Russia the number of unemployed to 630 million, in the labour force of 8.3%. Russian Deputy Prime Minister jucov early this month, said that the last three months to Russian domestic actual number of unemployed and registered as unemployed is a downward trend. But he said, taking into account the current seasonal reasons, and the unemployment rate still exist on growth worries.

Anti-crisis measures little

Although the Russian Government to spend $ "oil" established two sovereign wealth Fund-reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund as a stable financial situation and ensure that the public welfare has played a positive role, but it cannot effectively stimulate rapid economic recovery. And a substantial portion is used to maintain the ruble exchange rate stability. 7 months before this year, Russia's international reserves reduced 5.9%. Reduced to 4019.78 billion. At the same time, the Russian banking system while opening up a relatively high level, but not enough developed. Temperature Wade said that Russia's economic development funds to a large extent from foreign financial institutions.

At the same time, the Russian Government to implement anti-crisis plan efficiency to be improved. Merrill Lynch is responsible for Russia and the CIS business Senior Economist said, Russia's economic recovery speed depends in part on Government assistance for economic decision-making time, "the funds are sufficient, but the actual use but was delayed."

In addition, some large banks have government anti-crisis funds not immediately into the real economy. Russia Grand Thies capital investment companies and financial markets Department Manager of Kozani Cove on the Office of the reporter said that some large commercial banks will anti-crisis funds to maintain its own assets and liabilities in the balance, or in the stock market and foreign exchange earnings, but the Government does not have sufficient regulatory measures to stop it.

In addition, Russia's Bank for fear of enterprise solvency and maintain a higher interest rate, this is also the enterprise cannot access to finance. To change this situation, Russia's Central Bank take into account the current domestic macroeconomic trends, particularly the factors slowing down of inflation this year is 5 times adjusted refinancing interest rate. The 10th annual financing, then turned to the 10.75%. But section zhakov think, considering that profitability is very low, so the current the index remains too high. The Merrill Lynch corporate experts say, in Russia, solid economic recovery will facilitate loan recovery, not vice-versa.

It is worth mentioning that with the deepening of the economic crisis, Russia also increasingly towards protectionism, restrictions on vehicle, meat products and harvesters and other products for import to protect domestic industries and employment opportunities. World Economic Forum report will be published in Russia as the world's most closed economies.

Economic transformation it will take time

The International Monetary Fund experts at the end of July, said that Russia has two external factors

Drag: oil prices sharply and the withdrawal of private capital. United States Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O'Neill believes that Russia · economy too dependent on energy industry, Russia must undertake a profound reforms to improve their economic prospects. Russian Scientific Research Institute of higher economic head Yassin is criticized road, Russia from the current crisis did not draw any lessons learned, in terms of economic structures have not changed, just wait for the world's major economies start to recover.

Statistical data for the experts ' analysis provides evidence. The first half of this year, Russia's foreign trade turnover 45.4% year-on-year. Where exports decline year-over-year, the foreign trade surplus 46.9% year-over-year decrease of more than half. Export commodities are still dominated by resource commodities. Where the fuel energy commodity exports 50.3% year-on-year. Due to energy price fluctuations, Russian crude oil exports although levels are similar to the same period last year, but exports were up by 52.4%.

For the realization of the national economy from resource-based to innovative changes, Russian President Medvedev has announced the creation of which he personally responsible for Russia's economic modernization and technical development Committee. He said that Russia's development of an innovative economy, should focus on energy efficiency, nuclear technology, aerospace, medical and general direction of strategic information technology 5, and should this five key directions of drafting a separate implementation plan and established the appropriate working group. While Putin also stated that, while this year the Russian federal budget revenues would have decreased, but budgetary expenditures will continue to maximize retention to the aviation, aerospace, nuclear industry and other high-tech areas.