Emerging market investment bank suction gold then record sing more 2011

If money is a disaster, this year on emerging markets, there is no doubt it was the year of the "disaster." This does not, 2010 is just over 11 months, into the emerging markets equity fund international funds over the last year, the annual ceiling being overwritten again Gold records has become a reality.

Near the end of the year, a number of investment banks with one voice to sing many emerging stock market next year, big mo, UBS and Citigroup, recently published its report, in mobility, economic growth in the context of emerging markets is expected to continue next year is expected to rise sharply rising minimum reached nearly 20%. Of course, emerging markets, at the moment of a potential risk factor is the asset prices and inflation spiralling out of control, and the resulting policy tightening pressure.

This aspiration gold record again

In 2009, as the global economy that the recession, the stock market rebounded from the bottom of the Jedi. In this emerging stock markets play a very important role. Because of the crisis in the direct impact is relatively small, the fundamentals of better emerging market funds attracted a record.

Although the 2010 year is believed to be more complex for a year, but global investors on the emerging markets of preference continues unabated. Professional bodies, as of late last month, the inflow of funds in emerging markets have been more than a year.

United States Fund tracking study institutions EPFR statistics show that as of 24 November one week, the tracking of various global equity fund $ 4 billion net inflow of funds, one of the most, about 24 billion into the emerging markets equity fund. It also makes this year so far, emerging markets equity fund of funds net inflows reached 843 million, exceeded the record of 2009 833 million.

Money surged into the back of the holder is stock index. Throughout the year, the global stock market performance in the emerging market leader, or the top six in the stock market, five are from emerging markets. As of last Friday, the stock market to Argentina nearly 48% increase ranking first in the world. Of particular note is the Asian emerging markets, eye-catching performance in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippine stock market respectively, 46%, 40% and 36% increase in the price list, the second to fourth place. Furthermore, India and Singapore's main stock market stock index rose more than 9%.

Fidelity International well-known Fund Manager, author of "United Kingdom Buffett" Anthony · Bolton notes that current, overall valuation of emerging markets is still at a relatively low level. He said, from statistical data, from 1990 to 2000, global emerging markets in the value of the price-earnings ratio is approximately 25 times, and from 2000, of this decade, the emerging markets of the price-earnings ratio of the value of only 15 times, and the current stock market is still in the median level.

Institutions competing to sing well next year

It is interesting to note that in recent days, the world's leading investment firms are competing to publish sing good emerging markets report and forecast. Even the relatively conservative estimates, or have 19%.

UBS published a report last week that emerging market stocks surge in the next year, a covering major emerging market stocks may be specified in the years up 57% to a record high. This is mainly due to economic growth and low interest rates to promote increased valuation.

UBS's Policy Division team in wrote in the report, the MSCI emerging markets index next year will reach 1700 points, October 29, 2007 record high point of closing out of 27%. UBS's Policy Division, said the index of a normal dynamic earnings should 16.5 times currently only 11.5 times. At present, the MSCI index reported in 1100 points or so since the beginning of this year rose by about 9%.

Citigroup analyst is expected, emerging market 2011 is 35% rise in space, the row of most optimistic about the h-share market. Citigroup analyst in a recent report that, in the dollar, the Hong Kong market h-shares index and Australia index increases the maximum space. National City believes that some economies in capital control initiatives may reboot the liquidity to such countries as China, Hong Kong, Sydney and Singapore, and other markets.

The Godfather of "emerging markets" Moebius recently said that the United States consumer confidence seems to be improved, which will help to promote global economic growth, and detonated in the emerging markets of new wave bull market.

Investment Bank big mo's forecast more cautious, but also not optimistic. Big Mo's latest report forecasts emerging market stocks rose 19% in the next year, the Asia-Pacific stock markets other than Japan is expected to rise by 20%.

For Morgan Stanley in the Hong Kong Chief Asian and emerging markets strategist Ghana, led by the analyst team believes that the MSCI emerging markets index at the end of 2011 is estimated at target-1290 points, MSCI Asia Pacific market (except Japan) index of the target position in 540 points.

Inflation or worries

Many people think emerging markets a large reason for ample liquidity. Bolton said, the current world economic situation facing unprecedented changes, developed countries generally enthusiastic about "printing", the resulting surplus funds will flock to emerging markets, thus the good performance of these markets.

Globally, Bolton said, this round of Bull will continue for many years, and the second phase is starting, during this period, he was of the view that growth-oriented stock and growing market performance will be the most outstanding.

On next year's market, a positive factor is that the stock market this year appeared adequate adjustment. Bolton said, from historical experience, beginning in March 2009 the first wave of bullish development too fast, itself does not have a sustainability, this wave of rally in 13 months rose by an astonishing 85%.

Fortunately, "after this summer's callback, current stock market situation all the more normal. "Bolton said. Regarded as Europe's most successful investor, one of the Burton had planned to retire in the last year, but because the optimistic about China's emerging market performance

, He decided to come to Hong Kong, and from April this year at the helm of China special situations Fund, Manhattan, which was set up to seven months earnings reached 27%, well run and win A share and the stock market.

However, the industry is also on the potential risk factors raised a warning. Big Mo's report states that its Asian and emerging markets stock market prospect "does not generally expect so optimistic," because "in inflation and interest rates in 2011 before the mid-term chuding difficult investment environment."

Considering that many economies, economic recovery is still going to the level before the crisis, most analysts do not worry about emerging markets will reproduce past hyperinflation, we care about more is the rising food and energy prices, coupled with the fed and other Western Central banks of the second quantitative easing might eventually force the emerging market central banks to stronger than currently expected to raise interest rates.

HSBC emerging markets strategy supervisor Richard said the next six months, emerging market investors do decision takes account of the biggest problems is that inflation will have on the global impact. In China, India, many emerging economies, while inflation is not the dominant risk, but these pressures are increasing.

Emerging markets professional research organization Matthews Asia Fund's Chief Investment Officer Robert said, if the emerging economies of the central banks continue to increase monetary tightening, and stock market valuation may be "out of buffer space."

Another important emerging market challenges is the price of commodities, in particular the food and energy, to the related countries tighten pressure, but also on economic growth challenges.

Morgan Stanley investment management company global emerging market equities Department, said the head of Sara hilma investors on commodity prices and the emerging market economies seem to be concerned about the impact of inadequate. Once you exceed a certain threshold, commodity prices are significantly detrimental to the emerging markets, such as oil prices return to top of $ 90.