Sunday, March 27, 2011

G20 consensus fiscal tightening could become very critical attitude toward the United States.

<P> Although the United Kingdom, Japan and the euro area have recently proposed a large-scale multi-national fiscal austerity plan, but it is to be held this weekend the leaders of the Toronto Summit of the Group of Twenty Finance reached a consensus probably is not easy to tighten. .</ P> <P> accept the China Economic Times reporter interviewed the experts believe that fiscal tightening if the summit will be the focus of discussion in Toronto, but countries in the orientation of fiscal policy, there are still significant differences, the European countries .has begun to tighten fiscal, while the U.S. still call on all countries to maintain a certain degree of fiscal stimulus, given the G20 in the United States in the absolute position and firm attitude in the G20 finance summit to tighten the hard to reach consensus. .</ P> <P> past two years, in response to financial crisis, the world began a massive fiscal expansion policy, which is to stabilize the world economy play an important role in recovery. .But at the same time, extremely expansionary fiscal stimulus plan, but also to a loss in the private sector transfers to the government crisis, debt crisis threatening the world economic recovery has become the new "devil." .</ P> <P> data from the World Economic Forum, the Group of Twenty members of the current fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of nearly 8% on average. .This data has been seriously out of "Maastricht Treaty" in 3% of the standard. .</ P> <P> present, in order to prevent the spread of the debt crisis and to ensure financial sustainability, not only the depths of the core euro-zone European countries the debt crisis, frequent introduction of fiscal austerity measures, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada also intends to tighten .finances. .</ P> <P> British Chancellor of the Exchequer announced Osborne June 22, 2015 fiscal year, the United Kingdom to basically eliminate the "structural" budget deficits, GDP, the deficit down to 1.1%. .UK's current deficit hit a record share of around 11% in the Group of Seven in the top of the list. .This year the UK's public debt will reach 149 billion pounds, Osborne said fiscal year 2011, this figure must be reduced to 116 billion pounds, will have the next four fiscal years was reduced to 89 billion, 600 billion, 37 billion .and 200 million pounds. .</ P> <P> in the day, the Japanese government announced a fiscal tightening plan. .According to the Japanese cabinet meeting the government announced the "Decade of the financial strategy", the Japanese authorities prior to fiscal year 2020 plan, based on the national and local revenue and expenditure surplus. .In the 2015 fiscal year, the basic fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of less than half of the fiscal year 2010, achieving a surplus in fiscal year 2020; in the 2021 fiscal year, the Japanese national and local public debt in the total balance of the gross domestic product .The ratios will steadily decline. .In addition, fiscal 2011 to fiscal year 2013, the state financial expenditure based on fiscal year 2010 shall not exceed the level of local expenditure and fiscal year 2010, considerable. .</ P> <P> Ye Tian Jiayan Japanese Finance Minister said that the occasion of the upcoming G20 summit, he will try to win the trust of all parties, so that other members believe the markets and G20, the Japanese government introduced a new fiscal reform program will be able to .improve Japan's fiscal position. .</ P> <P> addition, the Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper on June 19 letter also said that G20 members, to stimulate economic growth, but also the implementation of fiscal reform in the next year; he suggested, G20 in the developed economies .body members to halve the deficit by 2013, and stabilize the government debt to GDP ratio, thereby eliminating the uncertainty of economic growth and financial instability risks. .</ P> <P> "Although there are many countries to tighten fiscal, but the rapid withdrawal of fiscal stimulus plan will not become a mainstream trend." Academy of Social Sciences Research Office, the U.S. economy in the accepted red Wang Zi-China Economic Times said the interview .At present, the developed countries want to tighten fiscal is still a big differences, especially the practice of these countries with the largest developed country in the world, the idea of the United States vary widely. .</ P> <P> According to "The Wall Street Journal," said Obama worried about the world economy as the United States when it was 30 years of last century into the second recession, it plans to G20 meeting in Toronto this week its economic partners Shi .pressure, called for global economic recovery still uncertain, States should be more cautious on fiscal austerity. .Obama will urge him to continue the implementation of the economic partnership, "extent" of the fiscal stimulus policies to maintain economic growth. .</ P> <P> Wang Zi Hong believe that the U.S. attitude is very important, the current situation, States United States does not want to exit the fiscal stimulus, because the tightening of financial market will lead to reduced demand, not conducive to the goals of U.S. exports, and employment status .for the better. .</ P> <P> the U.S. Treasury Department website, as of June 17, 2010, the federal government's debt over 13 trillion U.S. dollars, 90% of U.S. GDP. .Although the large size of the debt the United States, but Wang Zi-hong that the country's debt relative to European countries is much lighter. .He said the severity of the debt amount is not entirely dependent on the size, is mainly dependent on the debt arrangements, the quality of the U.S. debt is still possible, and the dollar also generate a strong credit support, liquidity is relatively strong .The. .So the current United States will not tighten fiscal. .</ P> <P> Shanghai Institute for International Research Fellow, Charles Xiaogang, the world economy in an interview with China Economic Times reporter also expressed the same view, "the U.S. will not follow the trend of tightening finances, do not want to fiscal .tightening of the country take their ride, it is hoped that a better financial position to continue to maintain the state fiscal stimulus. "</ P> <P> the wishful thinking of the United States did not receive support. .In addition to its stance in recent days the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the European relatively good financial situation of Germany, France and other countries have joined the ranks of fiscal tightening. .German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the June 19 European countries in the G20 summit called for rapid exit of governments fiscal stimulus plan. .She said, "European views of the participants, the rapid withdrawal of fiscal stimulus plan is to avoid the recurrence of similar crises in the future the urgent need." </ P> <P> "any withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, will become a hot topic in the G20 summit in Toronto .. "But the investigation Xiaogang believe the rally will urge the summit more serious fiscal problems the state has adopted prudent fiscal policies, fiscal tightening and will not reach a consensus, the world will not enter the period of fiscal austerity. .</ P> <P> In addition, Wang Zi Hong believe, G20 summit is just a platform, rather than the organization has a strong binding, countries can at the meeting agreed to withdraw the policy is not very important. .</ P> <P> Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Center of the U.S. economy in Xiao Lian interviewed said that although the G20 is a platform, but the U.S. is the leader behind the scenes, the right to speak mainly in the United States, the summit .which eventually reached a consensus on the role of the United States great. .</ P> <P> search Xiaogang said that the main role is to coordinate the summit of Toronto, for the direction of fiscal policy, countries should not just from their own interests, but should be coordinated, and to maintain growth, build market confidence as the main .goals, developed in consultation with the rhythm of the exit program. .In his view, financially capable of countries to implement the proactive fiscal policy; and financial problems of the country, the need for sound financial planning, restore investor confidence, but in the process, countries should fully open business, trade ., investment, and not in the implementation of fiscal austerity, it is also engaged in trade protectionism. .</ P>.

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