Of the six major world economic recovery, uncertainty.

<P> Affect the world economic recovery, the current main factors: (1) European part of the country's sovereign debt crisis. .Although the EU established the Joint International Monetary Fund 7,500 billion euros in sovereign debt crisis resolution mechanisms, however, the country's financial crisis, austerity plan to the EU and the world economy, the negative impact will be profound. .(2) has a global influence, the risk of large financial institutions need time to resolve. .(3) major international currency exchange rate fluctuations. .This year, the European sovereign debt crisis, exchange rates among major international currency fluctuations, which gives international trade, particularly in emerging market countries, international trade continued to cast a shadow over the recovery. .(4) various forms of protectionism, increased significantly. .(5) major economies in the macro-economic policy co-ordination is very difficult. .(6) States stimulus in the exit specific operational aspects of the timing and possible misconduct or a "fighting each other", and so on. .</ P> <P> Because of these factors is still unable to predict the certainty of the impact of world economic recovery, therefore, sustained economic recovery in the world is not a virtual certainty, it also has many uncertainties. .Short term, the world economic recovery risk is part of the country's sovereign debt issues and the major economies of the financial regulatory reform could have enormous pressure on financial markets, the result is likely to occur corporate borrowing costs, bank profitability declined, poor .The increase, which eventually led to renewed global credit crunch, thus endangering world economic recovery process. .</ P> <P> the overall trend of the U.S. economy from the point of view, since the third quarter to the third quarter of this year is considered very strong complement of U.S. manufacturing inventory stage. .In this process, the U.S. manufacturing recovery was, in April of this year, reflecting the importance of U.S. manufacturing recovery index - the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) once in nearly 5 years to a new high (up to 63.8). .Meanwhile, since last 3 months, the U.S. stock market continued to rebound and government spending on cars and housing subsidies made the United States the rapid growth of private consumption and investment. .</ P> <P> However, after entering the second quarter of this year, there are indications that the momentum of the U.S. economic recovery has started to slow down, mainly in the following aspects: First, most of a series of fiscal stimulus has ended (such as .: used cars for cash and purchase tax), which makes consumption growth slowed down; Secondly, the contribution of the manufacturing sector is gradually repairing weakened stock (but still positive contribution), PMI index has two consecutive months (May and June) .decline, but still in the economic limit; third, by the expected impact of stock prices, June consumer confidence index declined; Fourth, the long-awaited inventory of real estate activities does not seem to start the meeting, the U.S. economy entered a .lack of a clear growth phase. .In short, no clear signs of improvement in consumer and real estate stocks is not started covering the case of third quarter U.S. economic growth will slow. .</ P> <P> present, the EU renewed deterioration in the risk of debt crisis is gradually subsided, triggering the world economy "double dip" and may be relatively small. .First, the 750 billion euros rescue plan has been finalized the details of financing mechanisms that can guarantee any country euro zone debt problems in the event of timely access to credit, and large enough to cover the southern of the four countries last 3 years all due debts. .Since then it seems more serious the impact will no longer appear. .Secondly, the European banking system, debt crisis, the impact on U.S. and European efforts to little inter-bank market liquidity does not appear obvious tension phenomenon. .Furthermore, the European debt crisis deleveraging in the market occurred during, the world's leading investment banks is not large-scale package of European sovereign debt securities, nor to "leverage sales", "Credit Guarantee" in order to sell to .the world, so spread the range is much smaller than the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. .</ P> <P> Nevertheless, the European sovereign debt crisis on the negative effects of future economic recovery should not be underestimated. .It is because of European sovereign debt crisis led to the U.S. and Europe after the financial crisis on how to ensure sustainable economic recovery, there is a clear view of the differences: on the one hand, the United States hopes that all countries continue to maintain fiscal stimulus, and to ensure the liquidity of currency markets .ample; the other hand, the euro zone and Britain launched a large-scale tight fiscal policies, the purpose is to calm and stability in the European sovereign bond market debt crisis. .</ P> <P> Although the European rapid withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policy can achieve the purpose of deficit reduction as early as possible, but sustained economic recovery in Europe is very big damage. .According to statistics, the euro area in the next 3 years, the overall reduction in size of the deficit will be 3,000 million euros, of which Germany is 800 million euros; the UK in the next 4 years to reduce the deficit totaled about 200 billion euros. .Analysis generally believe that only when economic growth in Europe can support more than 2% of the benchmark interest rate, the implementation of fiscal austerity is the safety time. .If Britain, Germany and other major European economies, the second half of fiscal contraction policy, then the current downturn will lead to further suppression of the European economy, undermine its fragile economic recovery basis. .</ P> <P> monetary stimulus if the euro zone are also early exit (before the U.S. interest rate ahead of time), and was hit in Europe and the world economy would be catastrophic. .On the one hand, pull the euro zone exports to the strength of the economy will be greatly reduced, both inside and outside the double weak to be possible will make the economy significantly increased the risk of secondary depression. .Second, the dollar's relative decline will push commodity prices higher, inflation is expected to contribute to global warming. .In this context, if the European economy and even the world economy continued to maintain steady growth, loose monetary policy must ensure the continuity. .</ P> <P> from the current EU governments and the ECB's point of view, early withdrawal of monetary stimulus is unlikely, but ahead of the possible implementation of fiscal austerity was great. .</ P> <P> major emerging market countries experiencing financial crisis and economic revitalization, the have led to upward pressure on domestic inflation situation (except for Russia). .From the perspective of historical trends, India and Brazil, respectively, the neutral level of inflation at 5.0% -5.5% or so. .As the financial crisis between the two countries late in the economic rebound are larger, have emerged in their respective domestic situations prices are rising fast. .However, since the second half of next year as well as commodity and oil prices are likely in a mild rising trend which, therefore, India and Brazil in the second half of the domestic inflation pressure is not high. .Also, the two countries central banks have started raising interest rates, respectively, policy, therefore, although the two countries are currently high levels of inflation, but inflationary pressure is not great later. .India and Pakistan and other emerging market countries integrated inflation expectations, the current high level of inflation seems not brewing a new global economic crisis. .</ P>.