Experts: Global economy to adjust downward pressure on the face of long and can not be ignored.

<P> Not optimistic the second half of the world economy, downward pressure can not be ignored, placed in front of the national subprime mortgage crisis may be more than a long and painful adjustment process. .</ P> <P> this year, the International Monetary Fund, United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and other agencies have raised their growth forecasts for the world economy, world economy as a whole showed a strong recovery. .</ P> <P> But Europe is not scattered clouds debt crisis, international capital market volatility, global economic recovery and national differences in policy contradictions of differentiation, the recovery is still on the road a "stumbling block." .</ P> <P> the face of many obstacles, the current economic recovery is sustainable? .Accept the "Outlook" interview with Newsweek, a number of experts believe that the second half of the world economy is not optimistic, downward pressure can not be ignored, placed in front of the world will likely be more than the subprime mortgage crisis long and painful process of adjustment. .</ P> <P> these experts believe that the economy will not down the most worthy of the second concern, the world economy to a new path, in the great upheaval, great change and great development in the context of reasonable adjustments, to achieve a more balanced .sustainable and healthy development is more urgent attention. .</ P> <P> unsustainable growth </ P> <P> National Information Center Research Associate, Economic Research Department of the World Nan Zhang Mo pointed out that the main driving force of world economic recovery from the massive fiscal stimulus, but this .driven by cheap liquidity doubt the sustainability of the recovery. .</ P> <P> visit she told reporter said, because the lack of raw power, relying on money supply to support the world economy faces a callback pressure. .</ P> <P> ZHANG Mo-nan said the EU and the U.S. debt crisis, the economic situation has people on the future sustainability of economic recovery, fears and doubts, the recent turmoil in global capital markets to show that this concern. .</ P> <P> this, she said further analysis, into a debt crisis, the primary problem is that the European financial constraints facing the survival of the euro, the pace of economic recovery had to sacrifice to ensure confidence in the euro and the government credit, as .facing the Government and the deleveraging of financial institutions the dual pressures of the European economy will inevitably accelerate the downside. .</ P> <P> her analysis that the United States faced a financial renewal, new risks even greater than in Europe, the United States also indicates the high deficit of its own economic growth is not sustainable, and because a large number of U.S. holders .debt in Europe, Europe to the U.S. debt crisis may have a new round of impact. .</ P> <P> Mo Zhang Nan appears in the U.S. and European economic downturn would mean the world's major developed economies to be less optimistic in vitro, differences between developed and emerging market countries of recovery, the policy conflicts with each other is difficult to differentiate synergy, which will give emerging markets .pressure on economies, including trade protection, asset bubbles and inflation risks. .</ P> <P> Lin Yifu, World Bank vice president believes that the recent World Bank analysis of the world economy faces two possibilities: The best situation is under control debt crisis, global financial market stability; the worst case is .Some high-income countries the debt crisis of transfer to developing countries, caused the development of a new round of global impact. .</ P> <P> China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Chan Fung Ying, director of the world economy that the trend of world economic recovery this year is from high to low, the strong recovery in the first half, more than expected rebound in high season, up to 5% growth .in the second quarter has begun to decline, the growth rate of 4.6%. .</ P> <P> she expects the second half of the growth rate will slow down, but there will be 3.5% to 4.5% growth, world economic growth this year may reach 4%. .</ P> <P> 7 7, International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report raised its forecast for global economic growth, global GDP growth forecast for 2010 from 4.2% to 4.6%. .</ P> <P> IMF pointed out that the move reflects better than expected economic growth in the first half, but the organization warned that the risks facing the global economy has increased significantly in the short term, the main risk is that sovereign debt crises .financial market pressures led to surge in activity decreased. .</ P> <P> IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said that although the expected recovery will continue, it is clear that downside risks have increased significantly, it should be noted in the second half economic growth will be significantly lower than in the first half .. .</ P> <P> Chen Fengying of correspondents stressed that the world economy is still facing in the next "big trouble" and does not rule out a secondary decline in the next year. .</ P> <P> She believes that the world economy as "recovering from illness", requires a longer recovery period, the future remains to be resolved, "big trouble" is mainly debt and emerging market asset bubble. .</ P> <P> Chen Fengying analysis is that the debt was not immediately able to solve, the Latin American debt problems took 20 years, there are institutions predict that Europe and the United States until 2030 to make the debt back below the GDP60% .the warning line, and for emerging market economies, the risk will be the biggest asset bubble problem. .</ P> <P> ZHANG Mo-nan also believes that the debt crisis may be even longer than the sub-prime crisis. .</ P> <P> She said that the G20 meeting in Toronto last month, the summit marks the stage of the major developed countries into deficit reduction, debt risk in the diffusion process has triggered a credit crunch effect, fiscal tightening and the credit crunch dual meet of the combined effects .may accelerate the global economic downturn, placed in front of the world will likely be more than the subprime mortgage crisis long and painful recuperation process. .</ P> <P> China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Liu Jun, Director, Centre for the Study of Globalization magazine also pointed out that the red, G20 summit in Toronto agreed target of halving by 2013 the fiscal deficit, in terms of the world economy is a "trap", will give .second half of the world economy is not a small risk. .</ P> <P> He said that this is a multi-national and not just the tightening of a country, the developed countries maintain low interest rates, will result in lack of demand, pushing emerging market economies, while price increases economic downturn, exacerbated these economies .internal structure of the imbalance. .</ P> <P> Liu Jun Hong pointed out that emerging market economies, including government investment in the structure too much, too much currency appreciation and rising costs of private financing for SMEs. .</ P> <P> He suggested that emerging countries should be considered forward-looking financial security, the appropriate fiscal austerity, control of excessive currency appreciation, and further financial deregulation, the core is cut taxes. .</ P> <P> exacerbate the imbalance </ P> <P> global economic imbalances in the financial crisis played an important role, but with the economy to recovery, there is no fundamental economic imbalances and to address, but was intensified. .</ P> <P> International Monetary Fund, Special Adviser to President Zhu Min said in an interview recently, a new global financial imbalances now emerging, on the one hand, some developed economies, suffered sovereign debt crises; the other hand, international capital is .flows to emerging markets from developed market economies. .</ P> <P> during the financial crisis, countries showed "work together to overcome difficulties," the gesture of unprecedented cooperation, policy coordination for the world economy out of crisis to make a contribution. .However, with the difference of the global economic recovery, national policy began to move toward both ends. .</ P> <P> recovery in the global economy, difference is mainly in emerging countries generally signs of overheating at the same time, developed countries still show low temperature deflation. .</ P> <P> Liu Jun, red that emerging countries, while showing inflationary pressures, the performance of the developed countries and worries of deflation, the world trend of economic recovery, showing double structure. .International policy coordination from the point of view, this dual structure makes it more difficult for national policy coordination, economic recovery in the world added a new risk environment. .</ P> <P> ZHANG Mo-nan that the difference caused by the recovery of developed and emerging market economies, the polarization of monetary policy, developed countries need to maintain a very long period of low interest rates, but monetary policy in emerging countries by the problem of asset bubbles and inflation pressures .trouble, such a policy contradiction and uncertainty, the world economy is facing another heavy pressure. .</ P> <P> recent Inter-American Development Bank President Moreno says that the number one Latin American policy dilemma facing the country is, it is necessary to use monetary policy or capital controls to slow the inflow of funds, while not completely eliminate the inflow of funds. .</ P> <P> ZHANG Mo-nan pointed out that the recovery process of the financial crisis, developing countries represented by China's short-term growth in addition to concern for the global economy, the more concerned about how the global economy to a more balanced, fair and healthy direction, .strongly urged more say for developing countries of financial reforms, but differences between developed and developing countries to be more difficult to bridge, this reform process more difficult. .</ P> <P> She mentioned that the global financial crisis is not only the deficit and surplus countries, consumer and producer of the imbalance between, it is the imbalance between the debtor and creditor, but the imbalance of international .debt cycle system has not been completely broken. .</ P> <P> debt problem is the early aftermath of the financial crisis, from the future trends, consumer countries, production country, resource-based countries, debt claims are hard to break the chain, in the leading emerging economies such as China .the global economy to the recovery process is still behind the global benefits and the huge imbalance in wealth distribution. .</ P> <P> In this regard, Zhang Mo-nan that the recovery of the developed countries hope to create conditions for developing countries, but also to respect the long-term interests of developing countries, is the only way possible to establish a "strong, sustained and balanced" growth .framework. .</ P> <P> a forum held recently, the British HSBC Holdings Group Chairman Stephen Green said the continuing fragility of financial markets, global imbalances will continue. .</ P> <P> Stephen Green said that the current lack of confidence in the market, if not solve the problem of global imbalances, the future will be a crisis. .But he believes that to achieve a new balance can not be achieved, may experience 5 to 10 years of transition. .He also stressed that the rebalancing of the market is not only the international level should also be carried out within countries. .</ P> <P> to growth or to balance </ P> <P> Nan Zhang Mo describe the current world economic development is in the "take the old road", for countries in the world, the current should be "turn" in progress, should be .transformation of economic growth path. .</ P> <P> Although this transformation is facing many contradictions and conflicts, will be a long and tortuous, and not a substantive breakthrough in the short term, but need to show wisdom, courage and patience to re-examine our growth, .changes in thinking, recognize that a balanced and sustainable growth is more important or more important to track. .</ P> <P> ZHANG Mo-nan that the same is true for China, export-oriented strategy unsustainable, China should also pay close attention to how the structure of the new global economy play its role, we take the initiative to enhance .initiative, on the one hand to adjust its domestic economic structure and shift endogenous growth, on the other hand strengthen the international voice improved. .</ P> <P> her view, from that point of the short term, China's economy should not be a second down the most worrying problem, expectations for economic growth should return to a rational and normal, and abandon the state of imbalance .irrational prosperity. .</ P> <P> Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities has repeatedly told the media recently that China should not be at this stage to promote high growth, more important is to achieve steady growth, to regulate the economic imbalance .structure. .She believes that to deliberately promote a higher growth rate than the growth potential that may lead to inflation. .More importantly, promote a higher growth rate than the growth potential is low efficiency of resource consumption growth, which is not conducive to our economic transformation now under way. .</ P>.