Monday, December 27, 2010

Wu Donghua: RMB United States and Japan are the three major break skills.

<P> 9 月 4 日 to 5, the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank vice governor, deputy in Gwangju, Korea meeting, when the Chinese yuan against the EU expressed dissatisfaction with the recent pressure on U.S. lawmakers and the appreciation of the renminbi, .The third round of Sino-Japanese dialogue in the Aug. 28 closing, the RMB exchange rate in Japan to further enhance flexibility. .How out of the United States and Japan RMB encirclement it? </ P> <P> 6 月 17 日 exchange reform since the exchange rate flexibility from the left to come back for a run. .I believe that the yuan can run the second round, the time of two months from the last round of this round of four-month volatility on the (not referring to the upper and lower central parity exchange rate volatility on trade, but to a depreciation of the .margin of deviation) can be re-amplified some. .</ P> <P> the second round of the RMB exchange reform on how best to run it? </ P> <P> my opinion, in September 4th substantial depreciation of the yuan soon, to avoid the September 4 -5 at the meeting .The focus of this meeting was held in Seoul in November of Twenty summit preparations. .Therefore, the RMB exchange rate in December this year, has returned to the vicinity of 6.8 to 1. .The author believes that the RMB exchange rate each round run-time, run time should notify the foreign trade department of the internal arrangements, so that foreign companies take orders well arrange for the payment date and the currency to avoid exchange rate risk. .</ P> <P> for this year, the EU may be the 13th meeting of the EU - China Summit and other occasions, the EU raised the currency issue can be ignored. .</ P> <P> China's RMB exchange rate international strategy is to avoid the US-Japan joint meeting of EU pressure, to withstand the pressure of unilateral United States and Japan, which should be the regulation of the Chinese yuan exchange rate reform is one of the techniques. .</ P> <P> In addition, when the economy stable, moderate depreciation of the RMB does not matter, once the United States and Japan start second bottom, the RMB exchange rate peg the euro instead of U.S. dollars to accelerate as the dollar is the safe-haven currency. .If the dollar is no longer a safe-haven currency, the yuan pegged to the euro or dollar devaluation is the preferred method. .Recalling the 2008 financial crisis, the appreciation of the renminbi is pegged to the U.S. dollar hedge, in fact, is wrong, if the 2008 devaluation of the renminbi pegged to the euro, I am afraid the Chinese economy will not fall so much, this is the regulation of the RMB exchange reform .skills of the two. .</ P> <P>, of course, China can also currency markets in Europe and America Yuan Teng get into Europe controlled by the Chinese yuan running trend. .China believes that the depreciation of the euro had enough time or enough points to make the euro, the dollar if China believes that enough to short the dollar. .This is the Chinese yuan assets as a bargaining chip used in Europe and America, this is the RMB exchange reform regulation of the three techniques. .</ P> <P> In summary, I believe that the RMB against the United States and Japan, need to avoid the fact hit its true, the need to use circuitous tactics, flexible tactics and tactical guidance, which is RMB break America, Europe and the three techniques. .</ P>.

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