Who will the next wave of commodity prices successor Carnival.

<P> 5 on 5, China's steel industry leader Baosteel, public statements - the fundamental changes in iron ore pricing mechanism is a general trend. .</ P> <P> and in the end of April, CISA vice chairman Luo openly stated that production of iron and steel production enterprises for their own needs, you can and three iron ore mines into the purchase of its own deliberations, declared in 2010 .nothing came of iron ore negotiations. .</ P> <P> This also means that, as a principal member of commodities, the price of iron ore completely returned to the fate of "invisible hand." .When the limited supply of the huge demand, this hand the next action, the probability may be relatively large - price increases. .</ P> <P> it seems their fate is not only iron ore, petroleum, or coal, are considered to be ushered in by the 2008 financial crisis interrupted the rise in channel. .</ P> <P> iron ore: Monopoly war "just to be" </ P> <P> relative to the lowest point in early 2009, many commodity prices have soared a record 40 years, the largest - copper and zinc .Price gains were more than double, or a smaller rise in nickel prices have more than four percent. .Mining stocks rebound in prices, HSBC mining sector index rose over the same period have doubled. .</ P> <P> Outlook 2010, mining investment trends in the BlackRock (Taiwan) that the raw material group (RAWMATERIAL, the main components of commodities) will remain the focus of market investment. .Before the first half of 2010, mining stocks will continue to show the expected range of correction, slowly walking Yang pattern. .</ P> <P> iron ore production is currently mainly three iron ore giants - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and CVRD monopoly, the three major iron ore mining companies producing about 70% of global production .In other words, a relatively rigid demand in the face of three major mining companies for iron ore prices have unquestionable right to speak. .</ P> <P> CISA vice chairman Luo had recently said publicly that, as the external economic recovery, the recovery of global steel production this year is a shortage of global iron ore market. .</ P> <P> China, for example, IMF will soon be China's GDP growth in 2011 from 3 months before the expected 9.7% to expected 9.9%, and maintained in the report presented in January of 2010 .GDP growth of 10% of the expected change. .</ P> <P> and since 2000, with the rapid economic development, China's demand for iron ore, a significant increase in domestic production can not meet demand, steel companies need to import large quantities of iron ore, imports increased year after year - .In 1999, the total demand for iron ore imports about 28%; 2008, China imported iron ore reached 444 million tons, an increase of 15.8%, accounting for 58.9% of total demand, the world's largest iron ore .Stone importers. .</ P> <P> 2009, China's iron ore imports hit a record high, total 6.3 million tons, an increase of 41.6%. .In these, about 80% or more of iron ore imports from Australia, India and Brazil. .</ P> <P> behind the strong growth in GDP, is sweeping the country's infrastructure boom. .</ P> <P> According to "China Securities News" reported that the current high-speed railway in China, including Beijing-Shanghai railway in the construction of a 277 key projects, construction and inter-city passenger rail line project has been more than 40, more than the scale of construction .10,000 km. .According to the Ministry of Railways in 2010 to 2012, New Line production of 2.6 million kilometers. .In railway construction, the laying of the tracks on the steel demand is very huge. .The infrastructure around the same time and has never slowed, with China's auto industry, the automotive industry's demand for steel is bound to increase. .</ P> <P> BlackRock (Taiwan) pointed out that since 2003 China became the world's super-VIP large raw materials, base metals on the use of a number of almost all the world's first. .2009, 4 trillion yuan Chinese government resorted to the expansion of domestic demand and loose up to 10 trillion yuan of bank loans, to stabilize raw material prices have a considerable impact. .In 2010, China's demand for base metals is bound to continue, the real face of the growth has been gradually extended to the infrastructure and real estate needs; industrialization and urbanization, will also be extended to your second and third tier cities, the overall demand for raw materials in China is still .not be underestimated. .</ P> <P> Oil: Second-quarter prices spell </ P> <P> former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said: "If you control the oil, you control all the countries; If you control the food ., you control all the people; if you control the money, and you control the whole world. "</ P> <P> of oil is extremely uneven distribution of prosperity destined to its market - on the one hand the Middle East, .Russia, Canada and other parts of the abundant oil resources, exporting large quantities of oil, on the other hand, such as the United States, China, Japan and other countries in the production and life consuming need to rely on imported oil. .</ P> <P> from the current distribution and exploitation of the oil situation, the Middle East, South America and Russia is the most important source of exports, the United States has been the largest importer, and turned from a net oil importer since 1993 .Chinese demand for oil is gradually increased. .</ P> <P> According to the National Energy Board recently published data, in 2009 China produced 189 million tons of crude oil, net imports of crude oil was as high as 199 million tons of crude oil import dependence for the first time more than the warning line 50% to 51.29%. .</ P> <P> International Energy Agency (IEA) has said before, as the world economy to recover from the severe recession in 2010, global oil demand to record levels. .Recent International Energy Agency has even more to the growth forecast for this year's oil consumption increased to 170 million barrels per day increase in total demand reached 8660 million barrels, marking the highest level ever recorded. .</ P> <P> the global financial crisis and economic downturn before the record world oil demand was 8650 million barrels daily in 2007. .</ P> <P> importance of oil and caused the uneven distribution of over-dependence on imports in many countries, rising international oil prices and therefore. .After World War II had three oil crisis. .Crude oil price per barrel from less than 1973 rose to $ 3 more than 80 U.S. dollars a barrel today, the highest point is even close to 150 U.S. dollars. .</ P> <P> can be seen from Figure 3, nearly 10 years, international oil prices have maintained an upward trend, before the financial crisis has hit the high price of nearly $ 150, but the financial crisis, oil prices plummeted, .fell to a level close to 30 dollars, and has recently topped 80 U.S. dollars, close to 90 dollars. .</ P> <P> according to the Energy Department statistics, this year and crude oil demand growth in emerging countries as the main reason, the contribution of more than Jiucheng, the OECD (OECD) countries, energy demand fell after four consecutive years, 2010 .With the economic recovery, demand for crude oil finally grow. .</ P> <P> World Resources fund manager Schroders Chen Li pointed out that the recent oil prices broke through 85 U.S. dollars a barrel, the pressure area over the past nine years, according to statistics, the probability of the second quarter, rising oil prices are eight times as much, with the global economy .recovery recognized in the northern hemisphere "driving season", the demand for crude oil rose, oil prices will be stable support. .</ P> <P> force, according to Chen's analysis, many of the financial crisis during the oil upstream project was canceled or postponed, the global energy company in 2009 in the upstream oil and gas capital expenditures decreased 19% over the previous year, about more than .90 billion U.S. dollars, the recession rate is the first time over the past 10 years, is expected to be negative in the second half of this oil supply, the supply imbalance will push up oil prices, which shares the kinetic energy pushing up oil prices, is expected to remain longer .. .</ P> <P> Gold High illusion </ P> <P> Marx said: "Money is not the natural gold and silver, but gold and silver is a natural currency." </ P> <P> Although the monetary function of gold has now been .notes to replace, but as an important hedge and hedging tools are still the first choice for many investors. .</ P> <P> Although the economic crisis because of its hedging, while gold prices climbed. .In March 2008, gold prices rose to more than 1,000 U.S. dollars, while the current is increased to a high of 1,200 dollars. .</ P> <P> Still, there are analysts pointed out that, if taking into account the inflation caused by currency, gold is still below the real value of nominal 21 January 1980 850 dollars / ounce high number - considering .to inflation, is approximately equal to a high of 1980 in 2007 dollars to 2400 dollars / ounce. .</ P> <P> another favorable information, the gold demand is still growing steadily. .</ P> <P> the world demand for gold mainly from three aspects: the official reserves of countries, industrial and investment demand for gold jewelry. .Among them, the investment demand for gold market demand is an important part of the source. .Every dollar, rising oil prices, gold demand will increase; market rally attracted a lot of money, gold demand may be reduced accordingly. .The jewelry industry average proportion of annual demand for gold is about 65%, the top priority of the overall demand for gold, mainly in India, China, Middle East and other countries and regions. .</ P> <P> Bank of East Asia general manager Chen Boxuan wealth management magazine in an interview, said: "We are optimistic about the long-term trend for gold. From the demand perspective, India and China, huge demand for gold, and the recent China .India's economy is developing rapidly. India and China as the world's two biggest gold consumer, the financial crisis, whether consumption or investment needs are huge. "</ P> <P> World Gold Council recently released report of the Chinese gold market .said the gold in jewelry consumption and investment, driven by Chinese demand for gold in the next ten years to double. .China is currently ranked in the world after India's second largest gold market, gold consumption is the fastest growing market over the past five years, China's gold demand, the average growth rate of 13%. .</ P> <P> deputy general manager of Beijing gold by the easy payment industry, said Chen Jinhua, senior analyst with the higher price of gold investment demand for gold now is increasing investment demand until only 30% of total demand for gold, but .Investment demand has now reached 50%, "the increase in investment demand will further drive the price of gold higher." </ P> <P> outlook in the second quarter, but in the Nexus warned: the price of gold has been since last December .is the high point of the main risk is that the price of gold before the price of gold rose to a certain extent by the prevailing low interest rate environment; However, given the Federal Reserve and other central banks will start raising interest rates, gold may continue to face pressure. .</ P> <P> risk factors </ P> <P> commodities are not always angels. .</ P> <P> 2008 crash exposed it seems like years, "Satan," the lofty - China imported iron ore CIF price from about 1,600 yuan / ton plummeted to less than 600 yuan / ton; crude oil from nearly 150 .U.S. dollar fell to $ 30 area. .</ P> <P> particular, bulk commodities, especially iron ore and crude oil as raw material, its price point by the economic situation in the major economies, monetary, economic policy adjustment. .</ P> <P> example, the recent bad news for its real estate market is regulated. .As the real estate industry chain length will affect the furniture from the building materials, textile products needs of many industries, and ultimately impact on copper, steel and other commodities demand. .</ P> <P> on the other hand, the situation with the economic recovery turns for the better, the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus is also a matter of time. .</ P> <P> GAIN Capital's second quarter outlook indicated that if Europe and the British economy more and more obvious signs of recession in the second, or error optimistic expectations for the U.S., emerging markets and commodity prices may halt. .G7 countries, the overall slow recovery will lead to weakening of the global recovery, but in view of the past year into emerging markets and strong commodity speculative positions, domino-style sell-off will occur. .</ P> <P> IMF's recent report also pointed out that the recent oil price rose to more than 70-80 U.S. dollars per barrel, reflecting the people for the global economic growth will speed up the expectations. .But also warned that, OPEC could increase production to limit this through rose. .</ P> <P> GAIN outlook in the second quarter also pointed out that in the past few years, oil prices tend to rise in the second quarter, and the current global recovery is also expected to support this expectation. .However, the crude oil supply has been higher than the average quarter, demand may be revised down, particularly if China's successful economic growth would cool. .Oil prices will be slightly higher, but ultimately a result of supply and demand fundamentals and lower. .</ P> <P> "seesaw" law of failure? .</ P> <P> money is the measure of commodity value - the value of goods increased, the currency depreciated, the value of goods decreased, the relative appreciation of the currency. .</ P> <P> and related commodity prices, has always been closely linked with the U.S. dollar - U.S. dollar strong, the product down, the dollar is weak commodities rise. .</ P> <P> However, the pulse of the market prices are not likely to be swayed by simple mathematical laws. .</ P> <P> an immediate example of this is due to the euro zone by the debt crisis, the recent declining euro and the dollar index appears a good rise. .At the same time, have lower commodity prices, while the price of gold has turned to the U.S. dollar also rose. .</ P> <P> this regard, China Merchants Securities related report, the dollar is internationally accepted as the single currency, the more powerful that the U.S. government the right to enjoy the larger coins, and such rights as the U.S. Mint, and no corresponding recovery of the economy .to support the dollar high in order to flood the U.S. government increased liquidity to disguise the possibility of reducing its external debt. .This possibility increases, leading to a similar gold, silver, copper and other scarce goods store of value enhancement. .</ P> <P> Although the current price of gold from the previous high close, but poorer performance on the basis of the euro, even under the current price also showed a certain hedging function. .When the euro-zone economy recover faster, the better the data, when the euro as the market chose to avoid the risk of depreciation of the dollar, when the euro zone may be a wide range of non-sovereign debt default and currency risk, there is no equivalent in this .U.S. dollar notes can compete when the market choice of metal currency. .</ P> <P> At the same time, emerging markets and in recent years, increasing demand for gold ETF, also to some extent supported by the rising price of gold. .</ P> <P> on the other hand, other than gold and iron ore commodities such as oil, the price factors equally complex. .</ P> <P> "like oil, iron ore resources such that their supply is limited or controlled, and with the rapid development of world economy, the demand for them is huge. If the U.S. economy has been .maintain the current momentum, the dollar index may trend upward, but with the economic recovery, demand for commodities such as oil as the increase in oil prices and the dollar index may also rise. "one analyst said," So .the price of commodities can not be absolute in accordance with the natural ups and downs of the dollar index to calculate. "</ P> <P> coal, the next" iron ore "? .</ P> <P> "Chinese demand" is about to become a key factor in commodity prices. .</ P> <P> missed the crude oil, iron ore missed, who will taking over the carnival the next wave of commodity prices? .</ P> <P> 4 On 20 April, the British "Financial Times" published an article entitled "Global coal market ushered in 'China moment'," the article pointed out that in 2009 China became net importer of coal for the first time (since .since reliable records exist.) .Including thermal coal used for power generation (thermalcoal) and coking coal used in steelmaking (cokingcoal), China last year imported 104 million tons of coal. .In 2003, China's net exports of coal 8,000 tons. .</ P> <P> The article also mentioned a reverie of the fact that in early 1994, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released "60 years of this century, China the first time become a net annual basis .importing countries. "at the time did not cause this much attention to the information in a few years changed the oil market and global economy. .</ P> <P> So, the next will be the coal it? .</ P> <P> a reasonable inference is that because China's huge market, with China's substantial increase in demand for some products, the product price will therefore increase. .Just as iron ore, nearly 10 years, China in the world iron ore market share of 16% from 10 years ago jumped to 70%, while iron ore prices rose sharply again, the recent agreement with China Steel .negotiations with the three miners to nothing, China's steel enterprises can only accept Japan and South Korea reached nearly 100% increase in the price. .</ P> <P> impact on prices is often not obvious. .But over time, as China's growing import demand, prices usually soar. .China became a net oil importer in 1993, the international oil market was down. .In 1993, China's average daily volume of only 3 million barrels of oil imports, China is now at 500 million barrels of imported oil, the equivalent of Kuwait and Venezuela, and yield. .Strong promotion of China's growing energy needs of oil imports after the United States is now the world's second largest oil importer. .With China Petroleum (601857, stock it) and external dependence on imports in the continuous improvement of the international oil market is also rapidly entering the era of high oil prices. .</ P> <P> similar, with the surge in Chinese iron ore imports, a few short years the international iron ore prices doubling itself. .</ P> <P> then, coal really be the next "iron ore"? .</ P> <P> National Energy Board released data show that in 2009 China's coal imports up to 125 million tonnes, an increase of 211.9 percent over 2008, exports of 22.4 million tons, down 50.7%, net imports of over 100 million .tons. .As the world's largest coal production, coal one of the most complete, our country is from coal exporter to importer of coal quickly transformation. .</ P> <P> fact, last year China's net imports of 104 million tons of coal, with about 33 million tons of coal production in China, compared to not much. .But as the world's most populous and fastest-growing national economy, this net exports to net imports from the change is significant. .</ P> <P> According to "The Wall Street Journal" reported last year, the world's seaborne coal trade by volume is 6 million tons, China's purchase of more than one-fifth. .Other parts of the world steel mills and power plant by the economic downturn and sharp drop in demand when the demand in China pushed the global coal trade. .This trend continued this year, the first quarter of 2010, China's coal imports jumped 226% year on year, reaching 4,440 tons. .</ P> <P> British "Financial Times" with a report also said the Australian thermal coal prices (one of the industry's benchmark prices) this year has soared to more than 100 U.S. dollars per ton. .Miners and Japanese utilities have signed contracts for 2010-2011 will be 98 U.S. dollars per ton of steam coal supply to them, 40% price increase over the previous year. .In coking coal, the miners and steel producers have been finalized for the April-June quarter, the price of 200 dollars per ton. .</ P> <P> International Energy Agency is also the latest annual "World Energy Outlook" that: "As China from a net exporter to net importer of coal transformation in the world coal market in China is expected to remain a dominant influence on .. "The report also pointed out that by 2030, China and India will consume two-thirds of the world's coal. .In 1980, two coal consumption accounted for only one-fifth of global production, that proportion has now risen to one-half or so. .</ P> <P> However, net imports of coal for domestic, commercial circulation of Productivity Promotion Center in the coal industry analyst Ting-a different view. .</ P> <P> He noted that while coal and iron ore, like oil, are important resources, but they are not comparable. .China's oil reserves are relatively small, and the quality of iron ore is very low, can only be imported to make up for lack of demand. .China's industrialization over the same period but also for a long time coming for a long time this situation will not change. .</ P> <P> But China's coal reserves are abundant, and the quality is high; Shanxi coal mines last year only because the integration of resources, domestic coal prices higher, while the international price of coal fell 70% over the same period, the international coal price comparison .more price advantage, resulting in far away some buyers choose to import coal. .</ P> <P> Shun securities-related statistics show that in October 2005 -2008 domestic coal prices (in Datong thermal coal (calorific value of 6,000 kcal) Hang Hau price for example) continued to rise, and in 2008, 7 - .October exceeded 600 yuan / ton, three years or more than twice! .Since then, the price of coal by the economic crisis, fell to 405 yuan low, </ P> <P> but soon soared to the end of April has reached 465 yuan. .</ P> <P> in the same period, Australia's Newcastle port FOB (calorific value of 6,700 kcal) prices in July 2005 -2008, the climb from $ 50 to over 190 U.S. dollars, jumped nearly 3 times. .But during the economic crisis, the once plummeted to about 60 cents, or nearly 7 percent. .</ P> <P> "With the domestic and international prices closer to the net imports of the situation may change." He said. .</ P> <P> But Ting-also points out that relative to historical prices and market demand, the international and domestic coal prices have some upside. .</ P>.