Thursday, December 30, 2010

India to raise interest rates unexpectedly faced with a choice of emerging economies.

<P> Suddenly announced on Friday, India's central bank to raise interest rates as emerging economies, and an exit stimulus policies. .Market analysts generally believe that the adjustment of monetary policy in India in the short term are likely to have their own and other emerging economies, stock market impact. .</ P> <P> inflationary pressures appeared earlier </ P> <P> The Indian central bank repo rate, respectively, and the reverse repurchase rate by 0.25 percentage point to 5% and 3.5%. .As this is the conventional monetary policy in India before the meeting suddenly announced the decision to raise interest rates and let the market by surprise. .India's central bank said that pre-announced rate hike will help to control inflation expectations and inflation increased further. .</ P> <P> many analysts believe that India is forced to raise interest rates domestic inflation, India's policy at the end of the 1 meeting that India's macroeconomic situation has undergone great changes, industrial production, import, export and domestic .GDP data showed the Indian economy is gradually recovering, while inflation is a major worry. .Indian officials recently released data show that the wholesale price index in India in February to a 9.89% increase year on year, the market expects the index will reach double-digit increase in the near future. .Moreover, while food prices have come down in India, but still high, the consumer price index is rising, the recent industrial products and fuel prices are rising. .</ P> <P> but the accident rate hikes may also drag on the Indian stock market. .India's economic stimulus plan by the impact of withdrawal yesterday, Mumbai, India sensex30 index fell 167.66 points, or 0.95%. .The emerging markets in Asia have also been dragged down, Korea Composite Index fell 13.44 points, Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 26.52 points, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite index fell 40.57 points, or 1.48% to Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, the stock market also fell. .In addition, the U.S. and European markets also tumbled, the Dow Jones index fell 37 points, London's FTSE index fell 48 points, down to the deadline He was in exploration. ."Interest rate that India faces a very serious problem of inflation, investors will certainly be cleared away some of the stock position" SMC Capital, analysts said. .</ P> <P> out of the way in emerging economies hard </ P> <P> after India's central bank hiked interest rates, the market worried about after India and other emerging economies will follow the hike. .</ P> <P> Central University of Finance and the Bank of China Research Center, Guo Tian Yong, when interviewed yesterday, that although China and India are both emerging countries, but the situation is not the same. .Although many central banks worldwide have begun to raise interest rates, and adopted by countries after the financial crisis special stimulus is certainly out of the final potential. .</ P> <P> Deputy Minister of Finance Wang Jun said earlier that the stimulus should not lightly quit now, but should actively exit strategy to study the issue. .The withdrawal of stimulus has its own laws, exit is more difficult than the decision was to stimulate some. .This is due to exit policy determined by the laws of their own. .</ P> <P> "India's withdrawal of some reference value, but the final decision on whether to raise interest rates in China is mainly to domestic factors, such as inflation and trade, the extent of recovery." Tian Guo Yong said that considering the current .trading conditions and pressure on the dollar, raising interest rates is still not better. ."And other economy has fully recovered, and future inflation is expected to translate into real inflation before we talk about interest rates too late." </ P> <P> Although people on asset prices and food price increases have concerns, but overall it seems .Asia's inflation situation is relatively moderate. .</ P> <P> Li Si scoundrel, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank believes that the unstable situation in the world economy, the domestic environment for complex, monetary policy had to change in a progressive manner. .In Asia, the focus in China on the exchange rate. .The Chinese government seems to want to see significant appreciation of the renminbi, intends to continue to intervene in the currency market. .But in the end must make a choice, appreciation of the RMB will also appear. .Once China began operations in other Asian countries or regions will hear of the sky. .</ P> <P> reporter observed </ P> <P> countries have a balance of mind </ P> <P> Asia is recovering, but the pace of recovery will not only be the situation in Asia, but also prospects for development by the West .greatly influenced. .</ P> <P> present, China's central bank is to do is put the system to recover some of last year's liquidity, the normalization of the implementation of policies that do not interfere with the recovery in the case, with the best way to make monetary conditions quickly return to normal. .However, this is not an easy proposition. .Because it is different from monetary tightening, which could push policy rates. .</ P> <P> in Western economies is still at the internal and external debt crisis hanging for the emerging countries, although trade growth, but its recovery is extremely slow. .Recently, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said in his speech, in March this year China's trade deficit may appear. .Foreign trade growth is not stable, and inflation expectations have intensified, the dual pressures of the attack, emerging countries are faced with a difficult monetary policy decisions: interest rates will stifle the recovery in foreign trade, while rising inflation is not a wise move either. .What should the balance tilted to the side, as Guo Tian Yong said, depends on each country's own situation. .</ P>.

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