Saturday, May 7, 2011
U.S. stocks ended lower due to China's foreign exchange reform optimism dissipated.
Economists expect the price of gold fell below $ 1,000 during the year.
Silver, gold hit a record high at a 30-year high.
Emerging market investment bank suction gold then record sing more 2011
If money is a disaster, this year on emerging markets, there is no doubt it was the year of the "disaster." This does not, 2010 is just over 11 months, into the emerging markets equity fund international funds over the last year, the annual ceiling being overwritten again Gold records has become a reality.
Near the end of the year, a number of investment banks with one voice to sing many emerging stock market next year, big mo, UBS and Citigroup, recently published its report, in mobility, economic growth in the context of emerging markets is expected to continue next year is expected to rise sharply rising minimum reached nearly 20%. Of course, emerging markets, at the moment of a potential risk factor is the asset prices and inflation spiralling out of control, and the resulting policy tightening pressure.
This aspiration gold record again
In 2009, as the global economy that the recession, the stock market rebounded from the bottom of the Jedi. In this emerging stock markets play a very important role. Because of the crisis in the direct impact is relatively small, the fundamentals of better emerging market funds attracted a record.
Although the 2010 year is believed to be more complex for a year, but global investors on the emerging markets of preference continues unabated. Professional bodies, as of late last month, the inflow of funds in emerging markets have been more than a year.
United States Fund tracking study institutions EPFR statistics show that as of 24 November one week, the tracking of various global equity fund $ 4 billion net inflow of funds, one of the most, about 24 billion into the emerging markets equity fund. It also makes this year so far, emerging markets equity fund of funds net inflows reached 843 million, exceeded the record of 2009 833 million.
Money surged into the back of the holder is stock index. Throughout the year, the global stock market performance in the emerging market leader, or the top six in the stock market, five are from emerging markets. As of last Friday, the stock market to Argentina nearly 48% increase ranking first in the world. Of particular note is the Asian emerging markets, eye-catching performance in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippine stock market respectively, 46%, 40% and 36% increase in the price list, the second to fourth place. Furthermore, India and Singapore's main stock market stock index rose more than 9%.
Fidelity International well-known Fund Manager, author of "United Kingdom Buffett" Anthony · Bolton notes that current, overall valuation of emerging markets is still at a relatively low level. He said, from statistical data, from 1990 to 2000, global emerging markets in the value of the price-earnings ratio is approximately 25 times, and from 2000, of this decade, the emerging markets of the price-earnings ratio of the value of only 15 times, and the current stock market is still in the median level.
Institutions competing to sing well next year
It is interesting to note that in recent days, the world's leading investment firms are competing to publish sing good emerging markets report and forecast. Even the relatively conservative estimates, or have 19%.
UBS published a report last week that emerging market stocks surge in the next year, a covering major emerging market stocks may be specified in the years up 57% to a record high. This is mainly due to economic growth and low interest rates to promote increased valuation.
UBS's Policy Division team in wrote in the report, the MSCI emerging markets index next year will reach 1700 points, October 29, 2007 record high point of closing out of 27%. UBS's Policy Division, said the index of a normal dynamic earnings should 16.5 times currently only 11.5 times. At present, the MSCI index reported in 1100 points or so since the beginning of this year rose by about 9%.
Citigroup analyst is expected, emerging market 2011 is 35% rise in space, the row of most optimistic about the h-share market. Citigroup analyst in a recent report that, in the dollar, the Hong Kong market h-shares index and Australia index increases the maximum space. National City believes that some economies in capital control initiatives may reboot the liquidity to such countries as China, Hong Kong, Sydney and Singapore, and other markets.
The Godfather of "emerging markets" Moebius recently said that the United States consumer confidence seems to be improved, which will help to promote global economic growth, and detonated in the emerging markets of new wave bull market.
Investment Bank big mo's forecast more cautious, but also not optimistic. Big Mo's latest report forecasts emerging market stocks rose 19% in the next year, the Asia-Pacific stock markets other than Japan is expected to rise by 20%.
For Morgan Stanley in the Hong Kong Chief Asian and emerging markets strategist Ghana, led by the analyst team believes that the MSCI emerging markets index at the end of 2011 is estimated at target-1290 points, MSCI Asia Pacific market (except Japan) index of the target position in 540 points.
Inflation or worries
Many people think emerging markets a large reason for ample liquidity. Bolton said, the current world economic situation facing unprecedented changes, developed countries generally enthusiastic about "printing", the resulting surplus funds will flock to emerging markets, thus the good performance of these markets.
Globally, Bolton said, this round of Bull will continue for many years, and the second phase is starting, during this period, he was of the view that growth-oriented stock and growing market performance will be the most outstanding.
On next year's market, a positive factor is that the stock market this year appeared adequate adjustment. Bolton said, from historical experience, beginning in March 2009 the first wave of bullish development too fast, itself does not have a sustainability, this wave of rally in 13 months rose by an astonishing 85%.
Fortunately, "after this summer's callback, current stock market situation all the more normal. "Bolton said. Regarded as Europe's most successful investor, one of the Burton had planned to retire in the last year, but because the optimistic about China's emerging market performance
, He decided to come to Hong Kong, and from April this year at the helm of China special situations Fund, Manhattan, which was set up to seven months earnings reached 27%, well run and win A share and the stock market.However, the industry is also on the potential risk factors raised a warning. Big Mo's report states that its Asian and emerging markets stock market prospect "does not generally expect so optimistic," because "in inflation and interest rates in 2011 before the mid-term chuding difficult investment environment."
Considering that many economies, economic recovery is still going to the level before the crisis, most analysts do not worry about emerging markets will reproduce past hyperinflation, we care about more is the rising food and energy prices, coupled with the fed and other Western Central banks of the second quantitative easing might eventually force the emerging market central banks to stronger than currently expected to raise interest rates.
HSBC emerging markets strategy supervisor Richard said the next six months, emerging market investors do decision takes account of the biggest problems is that inflation will have on the global impact. In China, India, many emerging economies, while inflation is not the dominant risk, but these pressures are increasing.
Emerging markets professional research organization Matthews Asia Fund's Chief Investment Officer Robert said, if the emerging economies of the central banks continue to increase monetary tightening, and stock market valuation may be "out of buffer space."
Another important emerging market challenges is the price of commodities, in particular the food and energy, to the related countries tighten pressure, but also on economic growth challenges.
Morgan Stanley investment management company global emerging market equities Department, said the head of Sara hilma investors on commodity prices and the emerging market economies seem to be concerned about the impact of inadequate. Once you exceed a certain threshold, commodity prices are significantly detrimental to the emerging markets, such as oil prices return to top of $ 90.
Monday, April 25, 2011
This move was the first ice-breaking global aoyangxing tide surge
According to the Shanghai Securities News report: at the exit policies of battles, Australia's Central Bank has taken the lead in action: Tuesday announced increases in interest rates by 25 basis points. This indicates a round of intense interest surge is the end. As the financial crisis since the outbreak of the first group of twenty Member States of the increasing interest in, Australia this initiative led to the advent of global interest rising tide. Yesterday, the latest interest rate decisions made two major central banks in Europe is on track to announce, I think.
Two rows of continuous watch
United Kingdom Central Bank yesterday announced as scheduled maintenance 0.5% benchmark interest rate unchanged; the same day, the ECB also continue to wait and see attitude, not its current 1% of the benchmark interest rate level changes.
In spite of the stock market began to rise, but the economic recovery remained weak entity. Recent economic data suggests, the United Kingdom economy may already be in the third quarter from the recession, but this week it announced August decline in industrial production data from accidental, caused 2.5% recovery may require more time. The Finance Ministers of Sweden also stated that the previously Burg European economy is to recover the "interim", but he stressed that the policy "in the future" must remain very dilated.
The European Central Bank in September monthly reports that benefited from the gradual recovery of exports situation as well as the Central Bank and Government incentives, the third quarter of the euro area economy to stabilize. The EU Executive Committee will be published in early November to all EU countries economic growth forecast. The European Commission responsible for economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Almunia said that only get these projections until May when to take exit strategy for more detail.
Aoyangxing ice's road
Australia seems to always be on the "head" Suoo remain keen interest. 7 October last year, Australia's Central Bank has taken the lead in interest. But the Central Bank, the second this week announced that US interest rates by 25 basis points, to 3.25%, again opened the Group of twenty Member States. This is since March 2008 for the first time since the rise in interest rates.
Australia Bureau of statistics announced Thursday, the unemployment rate in September, Australia from August 5.8% to 5.7%, better than the market expected. Affected by this boost, the benchmark S & Thursday Australia P/ASX200 index closed up 1.6% to 4768.6 points, after the publication of the employment data were touching the 12-month high of 4780 points.
Australia's Central Bank Governor Stevens in the interest of the Declaration after the publication, "as in the implied interest rate increasingly normalization, today's decision could be opened a series of interest rate increase action. "He said, as economic growth in the coming year may be close to trend, the inflation rate near the target, Australia economic risk of severe contraction is also has been eliminated, the Central Bank's monetary policy Committee is of the view that, from now on the gradual abolition of irritant monetary policy is a wise choice.
Global Central Bank delicate Steering
The challenges in Australia's Central Bank, the World Bank has also started facing upheaval. Although in the just concluded the Pittsburgh g-20 Summit, the countries reached an agreement, however leave early, but there are some signal display, national approach to monetary policy wording may appear delicate steering.
Fed Vice Chairman Kohn 28 last month that monetary policy makers in consumer spending and business investment before it began to move. Troubled by inflation expectations are clearly more than United States a country. Norway's Central Bank also expressed similar concerns, global liquidity will stimulate India, Korea and other Asian economies asset prices. Market is expected in these economies will rise early next year, but the interest rate decision in Australia, they might want to advance the action.
Of course, there are also some countries still in a recession, Russia's Central Bank last month 29, announced that its refinancing interest rates by 50 basis points to 10%. This was Russia's Central Bank since April 7th downward since the interest rates. But before that, the Bank announced that Hungary will Hungary Bank benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points, to 7.5%.
North Korean currency reform intended to control the market economy
Most of the experts said that the purpose of the Korean currency reforms by reducing residents held cash in hand to stop inflation. Of course, cannot be denied that the regime which does have such a purpose. But from an objective point of view, the inflation is not serious to require implementation of currency reform. Korea 2002 "7-1 improvements have appeared since the" serious phenomenon of inflation, but recently has been basically back to normal. It can therefore be said that, compared to control inflation, monetary reform more inclined to other purposes.
The currency reform as weakened over the past 15 years to challenge national economic domination system measures of market forces is more appropriate. Although the Administration tried to maintain highly planned economic system, but the spontaneous growth of the community still has a number of market forces, they become the elites mortal enemy. Korean cadres are most worried about the "enemy" is to rely on the market for a living people. For the ruling class, in the home do tofu or sewing clothes for aunt were better than "American imperialism" and "puppet" more fearful of South Korea.
This is because market forces towards the cadre of power and privilege. Bazaar is available on virtually change the consciousness of the Korean people. The spontaneous formation of the market makes the inhabitants understand, even if they do not rely on things that can be assigned its own survival. In addition, the fair is also a channel for the free flow of information.
Due to the Korean Peninsula North-South economic disparities, and in the case of splitting the situation, if you take the Chinese reform and open policy is likely to be the same as East Germany caused system crash and the consequences of being unified. Korean rule classes cannot be arbitrary control, finally forced to suppress the market forces only. Therefore, they implement the currency reform, this policy will be to many individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises a mortal blow.
The 2005 recovery after the distribution system, the rule of the Korean domestic scene in short is "anti-reforms". In the past four or five years, the North Korean regime has been working to limit or suppress the spontaneous formation of market trends and attempt recovery of Stalin's regime in the era of Kim Il Sung. Monetary reform is leading to this goal.
(Korea of the North Korean Journal article 8 December)
United States bank failures and continued at the beginning of the tide
See also the bankruptcy, bankruptcy. When Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, some large transnational financial groups began to prepare for the coming end of the "red packets" to celebrate, the financial crisis caused by the virus remains in the United States financial banking system rooms spread.
At minus 10 degrees cold weather, the United States has since 2010 the first bank bankruptcy. Recently, the United States federal regulatory bodies officially controlled the Horizon of the 18 branches of banks. As far as I know, Washington Federal savings and loan Association will take over the Horizon bank deposits. As at September 30, 2009, these savings amount to 11 million. Meanwhile, Washington Federal savings and loan Association Bank will purchase the Horizon all assets total $ 13 billion. Expected to spend around $ complete merger 5391.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the United States of some large banks clients Government and survive, and those in small and medium-sized bank continuously encounter failures. 30 October last year, a day with California National Bank 9 banks collapse. Information display, full-year 2009, the United States a total of 140 bank failures. While these bank failures, most because of credit default. Some experts predict that the future will have the United States of small and medium-sized banks appear to fail.
The Earth at the other end of the banking sector to various scenes in the banking sector is the most vivid of textbooks, as well as our Bank provides a good opportunity to strike, but at the same time full of risk.
"We don't have to go swimming in the sea inside, or is still a long way away from the water, so we could not have drowned, but does not mean that our swimming is very high quality," China Merchants Bank Governors Ma weihua faces in the near future when attending the Beijing Guanghua Forum said so. He believes in the internationalization of the road, the Chinese banks to take the opportunity of risk because many phenomena, many toxic assets we haven't realized.
Minsheng Bank Hong Qi in the same activity, shared his bank going out some experiences in the process. Hong Qi that, to the foreign bank's failure to absorb lessons, powerful himself. At the same time to go out before another legal, corporate governance, and other details do complete understanding.
An expert on the daily news said that the United States Bank continually goes bust, particularly small and medium-sized banks of bankruptcy, our banks take. Especially the "unbalanced" small and medium-sized banks, but also in each process and strict checks, the prevention of credit risk.